David Carr's reign of terror is finally over.

Finally tired of bounced passes to running backs, defensive lineman's hands, or slot receivers, the Texans did what they should've done last offseason: rid the team of David Carr. Carr had become something less than the sum of his parts; he was seen as the total package coming into the league. He threw side-arm, sure, but he was athletic, accurate, and had the arm to throw the deep ball. I'm not one for sports psychology, and I won't play one here, but somewhere along the way, these tools did not translate. Gary Kubiak lost all confidence in Carr to throw the deep ball, and he was benched at points during last season. Oh sure, he had the best completion percentage in the NFL last year, but you or I could complete 70% of our passes if they were all screens and slants.

Now, correct conventional wisdom, established back in 2002, became that David Carr was playing on a bad team with a bad offensive line, and you can't throw the ball downfield if you never get time to. However, somewhere along the way, the Texans line moved from "historically awful" to just "bad". Last year, they were 27th in adjusted sack rate (as compiled by Football Outsiders), which is still bad, but not the heights of historical ineptitude that came from Seth Wand, Chester Pitts, and Tony Bos...wait he never played. They had finished dead last twice, and 30th another time. I posit that Carr bought into this and simply started trying to do too much, too fast. Not only did he become turnover prone and unable to make the long throw, but he also started to scramble at the slightest hint that a block wouldn't hold.

I also think the CW that Carr, freed from the oppressive environments of his youth, will suddenly blossom into a capable quarterback is dead wrong. Carr never got over the issues of his rookie season, and putting him in Minnesota or Miami isn't an automatic cure for five years of taking punishment (some self-inflicted) everytime he dropped back for a throw. He even lost the confidence of his teammates, leading Dunta Robinson to say: "We haven't won. I'm not saying it's David's fault, and I'm not saying he can't be a great quarterback with another team. But he's been here for five years, and the best we've been able to do is 7-9. I just think it's time for us to make some moves that'll help the Texans become a winning team."

Either way, two of the "new triplets" that were bandied about in 2004, when the Texans went 7-9, are soon on their way out the door; Domanick Williams and David Carr will not be on the team next season. What does this leave the Texans with? Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, and 500,000 original jokes about Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and the offensive line.

Did trading for Matt Schaub make sense? Absolutely. Was it worth giving up two second rounders? Probably not. The fact of the matter is though, coaches and GM's don't get very long to establish themselves in this business. With Schaub's trade value and money, the Texans are essentially putting themselves into a gambit that Schaub has to be a top 10 QB to equal his value. While thats possible, it's not exceedingly likely behind a line that still needs help stopping the pass. However, I happen to think he's a much better gamble than either JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, or any of the lower round picks. I don't know that he's two 2nd rounders better, but he's got the best chance of any of the QB's on the FA/trade markets or draft to become a reliable quarterback.

Another thing to consider is that the Kubiak regime actually managed to find players in the draft last year (okay, Charley Casserley was still "acting GM" but at that point his opinions were about as relevant as the first third-rounder he ever picked for the Texans), nabbing Williams, Ryans, Owen Daniels, Winston, Charles Spencer, Vonta Leach, and Anthony Maddox, who all played roles on the team last year. Wheras Casserley's best draft move was having the fortune to have Ricky Williams fall to him and ransom the pick for Mike Ditka's entire drafts for two years, with optional rights to his pool on alternate weekends. Kubiak and Smith have the credibility with me as a fan to not question this move. Yet.

This is essentially the new deal for the Texans, Kubiak, and Smith; If Schaub succeeds, it means the end of being a national punchline. If he fails, they'll be the Houston Not Reggie Bush's for another five years. Either way, it's brought back some sense of excitement to the ground; if you're going to lose, you might as well find a new way to lose.

Post #201: Crying about money

That liveblog pushed us over the fabled 200 post mark. Since we're looking at numbers, I'd like to take this opportunity to talk about the NFL, again.

Pro Football Talk (love the information, hate the schtick), brings up an issue I've always hated hearing people talk about: Underpaid-Overpaid

The prevailing view in some league circles is that the Cowboys, Browns, Chargers, and Bills paid way too much money for Leonard Davis, Eric Steinbach, Kris Dielman, and Derrick Dockery, respectively. (Memo to Chargers fans: That fact that Dielman has been named as an alternate to the Pro Bowl doesn't mean that he has been named to the team.)

As we've previously noted, none of these guys have ever been named to a Pro Bowl. Yet each of them are swimming in over $15 million in guaranteed money.

So what happens when a true Pro Bowler on the offensive line hits the free-agent market? Will he get $25 million guaranteed? How about $30 million?

How about the idea that he'll get what the market bears? How about the fact that 15 million guaranteed won't even buy you Jason Marquis? Why do people really care about how much money a guy makes if he performs? The whole jealousy thing that occurs with certain athletes just baffles me sometimes.


At some point italicized captions became trendy here. This is Jason Marquis doing what he does best: Running a daycare center.

I don't even mind the main point of this article in particular: Athletes that are better than Leonard Davis want more money than him. That's as it should be. NFL contracts in general though, are really poorly thought out and a pain in the ass. Here is a manifesto about why this occurs:

1) They aren't fully guaranteed
Talk about a screwjob. This doesn't fly in any other major sport, and I would LOVE it if this went away in the NFL. I'd guess if you got rid of this, 90% of the stupid holdouts, contract restructures, and needless bitching would go away with it. This is what always perplexes me about people who choose the NFL over the MLB or NBA--why would you give up the opportunity to one day convince someone that you are worth 50 million for contracts that are worth less year-to-year and have to be negotiated again every other year?

2) The NFL Draft money is stupid insane
David Carr: 60 million. Carson Palmer: 49 million. Eli Manning: 54 million (20.5 million guaranteed). Alex Smith: 50 million (24.5 million guaranteed). Mario Williams: 54 million (26.5 million guaranteed).

Wanna know what LeBron James made his rookie year? 4 million. Total guaranteed package of about 15 million. Joe Borchard, the highest paid signing bonus in MLB history, was at 5.3 million.

What does this all mean? Well, MLB is kind of irrelevant to this part, but, in the NBA anyway: When you get the first pick in the draft, it is a good thing. Getting the first pick in the NFL draft is a bad thing. Look at that list of players picked #1 that I have up there. Would any of them get that much money on the free agent market today except Palmer? NFL players are much more fungible, and having to pay a premium on the perceived top rookies is retarded. I'll refer you to the Texans. Would they be better off with Julius Peppers instead of David Carr? Absolutely. But you know what would've been best? Ed Reed at the cheap-ass contract he got for 5 years. You know what Ed Reed did all the last few years before signing an extension? Complained about his contract.

But when you get the #1 overall pick, theres so much media intensity that teams are afraid to blow it. Very few teams trade the #1 overall pick. One that did, the Chargers, ended up getting franchise running back LaDanian Tomlinson AND quarterback Drew Brees, along with other picks, for non-franchise running back Michael Vick. Do you see how this works? Very few NFL teams seem to. Getting the #1 overall pick in 2006 was the worst thing that could've happened to the Texans. Not only were they locked into paying someone who could potentially not be very good a lot more money than he probably deserved, but the intense scrutiny has led to the team becoming the Houston Not Reggie Bush's.

And when you are the Steelers, or the Patriots, or the Colts, and you have a core of a successful team. AND you draft low in the first round every year. You are absolutely better off. Let me refer you to Troy Polomalu, Reggie Wayne, Vince Wilfork, among others. Not only are these guys as good if not better than people taken before them, but they are much cheaper.

If I were an NFL GM with a high pick, I would trade down nine times out of ten. It would have to be a LeBron James type situation for me to stay at the top of that draft board and fork over my money. (PS: MLB needs to come up with the NBA system too. I mean, if you're going to subtly manipulate prices under the charade of "setting recommended prices", you might as well just finish the job. Matt Bush should never be the #1 overall pick in a draft that includes Stephen Drew and Jared Weaver just because of money)

3) For the love of God, get rid of this signing bonus bullshit.

Maybe 3% of America understands the NFL salary cap system, and that includes NFL GM's. Nobody understands cap hits, nobody understands bonus allocation, and nobody understands why there are so few trades. See, the signing bonus is there because it's the only guaranteed money a player gets. But what the NFL decided to do is have it count against the cap along with the base salary, spread out over whatever number of years. Whenever a guy gets cut or traded, they lose the salary bonus against the cap. Not only does this suck the fun out of the sport, but it confuses every NFL fan (who, lets face it, are not the most enlightened group in the first place) who has ever wanted to get rid of the bad free agent signings on their team, and can't understand why they won't get rid of them.

Here's why: David Carr, Charles Rogers, and all their friends have huge signing bonuses. If the team cuts them, they still have to eat a portion of the contract on their cap anyway. But more importantly, they also take a hit on next years cap. It's so much money pissed away at that point that you might as well live with the player and see if he can become mediocre instead of shitty.

What would I do? Get rid of the whole fucking concept. Even if you stick in the non-guaranteed system, just don't have them have any involvement with the salary cap. Not only are things suddenly much fucking simpler, but trades can happen again. And if owners start giving 75% of a contract guaranteed to a player, well gee, maybe thats a sign that your whole stupid non-guaranteed system is a crock of shit?

There, thats 1000 words that won't ever matter because the NFL and MLB make a shit-ton of money and aren't interested in the common fans opinions on anything. Reformation will only come when it's forced, because altruism almost never has a place in business.

Texans sign Ahman Green, further cement that they are basing personnel decisions off Madden 2002

Here's whats sad about this move: It's not really that bad. In a market where Leonard Davis gets 49 million for no fucking reason, Ahman Green got 23 million, but only 6.5 guaranteed.

But the bigger issue is that it doesn't really do anything for the Texans. Ahman Green was 16th in the NFL in DPAR last year, behind a much better offensive line. That's essentially league average. Ron Dayne, the Texans highest ranked back, was at 28th. But the difference between the two was only 8 DPAR, and Dayne played in only 11 games and started just 6. DVOA, the percentage based Football Outsiders stat, has it as Dayne 4.9%, Green 4.6%. They're essentially the same player.

And in a league where talented running backs are essentially becoming the easiest thing to find in the draft, spending so much money on one who makes so little difference is downright silly. The Texans should be spending their money on young free agents, or at the very least at positions of need like safety, offensive line, or outside linebacker.

And yes, it's easy to criticize and not give any suggestions. So who would I have spent this money on? I'd have gone after someone like Deon Grant, Ken Hamlin, or Kevin Kaeshviharn (so we can have a monopoly on white ex-Bengals who play distinctively non-white positions). I'd sign Josh Bidwell, who in my mind is the best available punter, because we'll be doing a lot of that. I'd sign Alfonso Boone, to give us a prayer of stopping the run. And most importantly, I would sign LOTS of young players and see what you can find. If we're gonna get smacked all year, we might as well see if we can find some quality players that were stuck on the practice squad.

Instead, we have someone who is interested in Jeff Garcia, Ashley Lelie, Ahman Green, and trading up to get Adrian Peterson. Is competency too much to ask for?

All you need to know about the Texans

They're interested in Jeff Garcia.

Also in the article:

The Texans are also interested in receiver Ashley Lelie, who was a No. 1 draft choice in Denver and was later traded to Atlanta.

While I could easily destroy both these ideas at once, I'll just let Football Outsiders do the talking for me:

Top 5 free agents to avoid

...

Jeff Garcia, quarterback, Eagles
Yes, Garcia had a good half-season in Philadelphia. That was preceded by bad seasons in San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit. The 37-year-old Garcia can be an effective backup in a pinch, but signing him for starting-quarterback money would be foolish.

...

Ashley Lelie, receiver, Falcons
Lelie's speed makes him attractive to teams that like to throw the deep ball, but he doesn't have good hands, doesn't run good routes, and doesn't pick up tough yardage over the middle. Expecting Lelie to be anything more than an extra receiver to come in on third-and-long is expecting too much.

It's gonna be a long decade.

(Also, I know it's passe at this point to post pictures of hot girls in sports blogs, but I don't want to have to look at any pictures of Jeff Garcia.)

Something I will never, ever, understand.

Retread NFL Head Coaches.

Norv Turner, yesterday, was handed the greatest collection of offensive talent in the entire NFL, and arguably the best collection of talent period. Norv Turner. The same Norv Turner that has a 58-82 record all-time as a head coach. The same Norv Turner that has one playoff season out of nine. That's the man that took over the most desirable head coaching job in the NFL.

Elsewhere, Wade Phillips, mastermind of the ingenious "Bench Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson to improve the self-esteem of defensive lineman in the wake of the Dmitritus Underwood tragedy" plan, now has the keys to the Dallas Cowboys. Wade Phillips couldn't ride John Elway to a better record than 9-7, and he's in charge of probably one of the 3 or 4 best teams in the NFC again.

Has the Sean Payton hiring changed anything? I read in a Rotoworld review that Ron Rivera had bad reviews on his job interviews. So what? Wouldn't it be better to take a chance on a coach that hasn't already proven conclusively that he isn't a good NFL coach? Bill Belichick did pretty well in his second chance, so I won't be too harsh on hiring someone who failed in one place, but when you've failed in multiple places?

I know there aren't any sexy wannabe coaches out there, and Pete Carroll wasn't returning your calls, but the Chargers have ended up with a horrendous coaching situation. I would rather have Dom Capers coaching my team than Norv Turner. And I say this as someone who suffered through every third down screen pass with eighteen yards to go that Dom gave us. At least Dom had the mid-90's Panthers. What's next? Bruce Coslet getting his fourth chance? Is Dave McGinnis around?

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I feel that the best man out there to be hired, if he's over his health problems, is Mike Martz. You can complain about his game management in certain situations, certainly. However, he kept his running backs fresh, his offenses were always capable or better, even when his QB's kept getting injured and Jamie Martin was thrown out there. He's had one losing record as a head coach, two very good teams (one that would have won the Super Bowl if Tom Brady wasn't the clutchest clutcher that ever clutched), and built the offensive game plan that did win the Super Bowl for the Rams against the Titans.

Come to think of it, a Martz-Rivera combo might make for a wonderful coaching combo. It's too bad we'll never get to see it happen.

The 2003 Houston Texans: Tremors of an actual franchise

Oh, I apologize for the lack of updating around here. Most of us are college kids going back to school. And most of us are lazy.

Stat, Ranking in NFL, Ranking in 2002
2003 DVOA: -21.1%, 29th (31st)
2003 Offensive DVOA: -12.9%, 27th (32nd), -14.4% passing, 25th (32nd), -11.4 rushing, 27th (32nd)
2003 Defensive DVOA: 10.6%, 28th (20th), 15.5% passing, 29th (17th), 6.2% rushing, 25th (21st)
2003 Special Teams DVOA: 2.3%, 8th (12th), huge contributions from both Kris Brown and Chad Stanley this year.

David Carr: 3.7 DPAR, 27th (last)
Tony Banks: 15.0 DPAR, 22nd (n/a)

Domanick Davis: 10.7 DPAR, 26th (n/a) (-8.7 DPAR as a reciever)
Stacey Mack: -0.8 DPAR, 46th (12th)
Tony Hollings: -4.5 DPAR, n/r (n/a)

Andre Johnson: 13.9 DPAR, 27th (n/a)
Jabar Gaffney: 5.7 DPAR, 44th (75th)
Corey Bradford: -6.5 DPAR, 75th (82nd)
Derrick Armstrong: 2.5 DPAR, n/r

Billy Miller: 0.8 DPAR, 26th (1st)

Offensive Line
3.68 Adjusted Line Yards, 29th (32nd)
66% Power Success, 16th (29th)
16% Carries of 10+ Yards, 15th (31st)
30% Carries Stuffed, 31st (32nd)
7.3% Adjusted Sack Rate, 25th (32nd)
And ranks running the ball to each position: Left End 20th (26th), Left Tackle 29th (32nd), Middle 31st (31st), Right Tackle 20th (32nd), Right End 25th (29th)

Defensive Front Seven
4.61 Adjusted Line Yards, 31st (18th)
64% Power Success, 13th (24th)
18% Carries of 10+ Yards, 18th (16th)
18% Stuffed, 31st (16th)
4.6% Adjusted Sack Rate, 31st (13th)
22nd, 29th, 30th, 25th, 25th (23rd, 4th, 18th, 12th, 27th)

Secondary
DVOA vs #1 WR: 43.3%, 25th
DVOA vs #2 WR: 9.4%, 11th
DVOA vs Other WR: 3.1%, 13th
DVOA vs TE: 24.1%, 22nd
DVOA vs RB: 22.1%, 29th

The 2003 Houston Texans, like the 2002 squad, won it's first game of the year, shocking Miami at Dolphins/Joe Robbie/whatever stadium. This, combined with the additional win, gave the Texans a public perception of improvement, despite the fact that certain aspects of the team were falling apart.

Credit where credit is due: Zach Weigert quickly established himself as a very capable run blocking guard, bolstering the right side. Greg Randall was a terrible run blocker, but was adequate enough in pass protection to make this the best Texans season ever in terms of adjusted sack rate. Yep, 25th. Thats our highest finish as a franchise.

David Carr showed tremendous improvement, in that instead of looking like an overmatched college kid, he looked like an overmatched NFL quarterback. Stacey Mack was a bust as a free agent, but the emergence of Domanick Davis made it less painful, as he was a major Offensive ROY candidate, but eventually settling for Pepsi Rookie Of The Year (thank you Fantasy Football!). Andre Johnson was a productive wideout from day 1, easing the load on Gaffney. Billy Miller's amazing 2003 season was found out as a fluke as he shat the bed, changed the sheets, and shat on them again for good measure.

One thing that has always puzzled me about the Texans is their lack of faith in Derrick Armstrong as a wideout. He was their second best receiving option this year, and we'll come back to that point again and again.

While the offense, in general, got better, the defense had a rash of injuries. Seth Payne was lost for the year and that was a huge impact up the middle as teams ran all over Steve Martin, Junior Ioane, and the rest of the rag-tag cast of misfits the Texans were forced to run out. More than that, the loss of James Posey to the Bills really hurt the Texans laterally. They were horrendous at defending screens and horrendous at defending on sweep plays, and when you can't stop the run up the middle either, thats a sure recipe to keep the opponents on the field longer. Matt Stevens had thankfully been deposited in the nearest trash can, but Eric Brown was still around letting tight ends keep it wide open. Although he can't be blamed entirely, as the Texans have always seemed to play a LOT of zone defense to me. The rest of the secondary, led by Marcus Coleman's 7 interceptions, was once again top-heavy. Glenn seemed to decline, and the safeties were at best adequate. Marlon McCree was among them, and I'm sure Chargers fans now know why we didn't keep him.

The special teams, again the best part of the squad, was the main thing that carried them on to their close victories. Good punting and good field goal kicking kept them in games.

All these numbers are from Football Outsiders

(I've decided to seperate the offseason into it's own separate post from now on.)

Clutchness is fleeting

Fun fact: Tom Brady apparently did not blow the game despite having a game-ending interception. He has only three cursory appearances in the AP recap.

I guess it's really not how clutch you are, it's how clutch you are as a first impression.

The 2006 Steelers: A Requiem

It sure is a sign of the times that I had no idea who even won the Denver/Cincinnati game until this morning. It's hard enough for me to watch more football when the Steelers lose, but watching football after the Steelers have been eliminated from playoff contention is something that I'm not used to dealing with altogether. In 2003, there wasn't really any suspense because the team wasn't any good to begin with (but that still didn't stop me from throwing my remote control at Amos Zeroue during a humiliating Monday Night loss in San Francisco). In 1998, 1999, and 2000, #10 was under center. Most of the time, anyway.

But when a team is this talented (and returning everyone but a gimmicky wide receiver and a fat old running back from a Super Bowl team constitutes talent no matter how you break it down), there's no excuse for missing the postseason. What's even more frustrating is that the Steelers outplayed their opponent in at least four of their eight losses, plus the first half in San Diego. The only games they were really shown up were against Jacksonville and the Shitbird debacles.

To prove my point, the crushing disappointment of the Steelers' season can essentially be summed up in five plays:

5. December 24. Ravens @ Steelers - Willie Parker's season-ender
With the Steelers' season already on life support, needing to win their final two games and help from a bunch of other teams to sneak into the playoffs, the second leg of the Pittsburgh/Baltimore derby started out looking a lot like the first leg. The Ravens began at or near midfield just about every time they got the ball in the first half thanks to the inability of the Steelers offense to get so much as a first down and converted this into a 14-0 lead until a gift Steve McNair interception that was tipped by his own receiver finally sparked the Steelers, who converted a gutsy 4th-and-goal from the 2 to go into the half down by only seven.

The Ravens began the second half by driving the length of the field for another touchdown, and after the teams traded several punts and turnovers, the Steelers finally went on a drive of their own, starting at their own two. With first-and-ten from the Baltimore 11, Willie Parker rumbled for eight yards but fumbled on his way down at the three. The Steelers didn't score again and their playoff hopes vanished quietly into the Christmas Eve night. The Ravens swept the season series for the first time ever. Embarrassing.


4. November 5. Broncos @ Steelers - Hines Ward's sickeningly unlucky encounter with John Lynch's helmet
Having lost four of five to fall to 2-5, the Steelers desperately needed a win and racked up 500 yards against the Broncos vaunted defense but found themselves down 31-20 with just under five minutes left in the game thanks to four turnovers inside Denver's 20. On an eerily similar 1st-and-10 at the Denver 11 just before the two-minute warning, Ben Roethlisberger hit Hines Ward on a short route, and Hines juked and jived his way to the one, where, as he he was diving to extend his arm across the goal line, John Lynch stuck his head up and inadvertently dislodged the ball. The Broncos recovered, but went three-and-out and gave the ball back with 1:26 left. Who knows what would have happened if it had still been a one-score game, perhaps only needing a field goal to tie it. The Steelers reached their low point of the season at 2-6, a hole from which they were not able to recover.


3. October 22. Steelers @ Falcons - Nate Washington's flinch
In one of the most exciting games of the season, the Steelers had their first opportunity to get back to .500 after their already severely disappointing start. A back-and-forth affair saw seven lead changes, a quarterback K.O., and an incredible 70-yard Hines Ward catch-and-run for a touchdown in which he accumulated about 35 YALAS (Yards After Losing A Shoe).


Shoeless Hines Ward celebrates his feat.

The Steelers had endured their by-now weekly case of fumblitis, putting the ball on the ground four times and losing three of them, but heroic performances by Ben and the greatest backup quarterback of all time, Charlie Batch, took the game to a 38-38 tie late in the 4th. The Falcons drove to the Steelers' 38 with thirty seconds left to try a 57-yard field goal. The effort from Matt Koenen was well short, but Ron Winter and his crew gave everyone in Western Pennsylvania seizures resulting from Joe Nedney flashbacks by calling a flimsy "running into the kicker" penalty on Troy Polamalu, a call assisted largely due to Koenen's dramatic flop onto Troy's head. This gave the Falcons a mulligan and Jim Mora Jr. thought it would be wise for 80-year-old Morten Andersen to try the resulting 52-yarder. This effort also fell a few yards short.

The Steelers got the ball back, and Batch promptly fired off a 25-yard pass to Hines Ward to the Falcons' 33. With no time-outs left, Batch hurried the team to the line to spike the ball so the much more able-bodied and spry Jeff Reed could try a 52-yarder of his own. Second-year receiver Nate Washington picked the most inopportune moment to scratch his ass, and was flagged for a false start. With the clock running, the consequence was a 10-second runoff, ending regulation. The defense spent overtime curled up in a fetal position on the field, and Senor Mexico gave the Great Dane a much easier 32-yarder. While a 52-yarder is no gimme, Jeff Reed was perfect away from home this season, and I certainly would have liked Skippy's chances there. As it was, the Steelers' woes continued.


2. September 24. Bengals @ Steelers - Ricardo Colclough's gross incompetence
With just over eight minutes left in the game and a 17-14 lead, the Steelers are about to get the ball back from a thoroughly confused Bengals offense, which has been held to a whopping 13 yards on five drives in the second half. In what turned out to be an ominous portent of things to come, Ricardo Colclough muffed the punt with no would-be tacklers in sight and then failed to see the big brown thing rolling around at his feet, instead letting Cinci special teamers dive all over it at the Steelers 9. This was the third of five Steelers turnovers, and the of two that Carson Palmer followed up with a one-play touchdown (the other happened on the Steelers' next possession following a Verron Haynes fumble). Ben also threw two picks inside the Bengals red zone. You do the math.


1. October 29. Steelers @ Raiders - Ben Roethlisberger's Tommy Maddox impression
If I had to pinpoint any one play from this season to show why the Steelers will be missing the playoffs, it would be one from this game. Tommy Maddox was known to lose a game entirely by himself from time to time. His replacement, wunderkind Ben Roethlisberger, was known for his ability not to give games away (a reputation that would be markedly tarnished as the 2006 season progressed). The Raiders, firmly established as one of the sorriest franchises in the NFL today, were not supposed to pose any threat to a team with the aspirations of the defending champs.

The play in particular came with the Steelers down 13-6 already thanks to a 24-yard pick-six courtesy of Ben Roethlisberger's errant right arm. With 9:49 remaining in regulation, the Steelers had driven inside the Raiders 10. On third down, Ben was intercepted once more by Courtney Carr who took it from end zone to end zone to completely debilitate the Steelers. That's a swing of 10 points there folks, in a game that the Steelers ended up losing by 7. Adding insult to injury, the Steelers held that Andrew Walter-led Raiders offense to a massive 98 total yards, bringing up shades of that epic Tommy Maddox vs. Aaron Glenn battle of yore.


If any one of those plays had gone in the Steelers favor, let alone two or even three of them, we most likely wouldn't be having this conversation. But I guess the best teams overcome adversity, and the Steelers weren't quite good enough to climb out of the Mariana Trench-sized abyss they'd dug for themselves after shooting themselves in the foot so many times. I guess booting Cinci out of the playoffs would be fun and all but even that would be predicated on what Denver and Kansas City do. As long as the Patriots or Ravens lose as soon as possible, I don't really care what else happens. Maybe I'll even watch a playoff game or two, but for the most part, the month of January is now...dead to me.

I guess there are 3 memories for Texans fans now

If all it took for the Texans to be an NFL franchise was for me to start bitching about them, it looks like smooth sailing ahead; I've got a lot more bitching to do.

Oh my.

Jeff Suppan, Proven Playoff Performer, World Series Hero, Veteran Presence, you are 42 million dollars richer. I always had a lot of confidence in Doug Melvin as a GM. Made a lot of nice lateral moves, abstained for the most part from stupid high priced stuff. Recognized Carlos Lee as overrated after getting him for Scott Podsednik in the first place. But dude, Jeff Suppan? You had Doug Davis and Dana Eveland, and they were both just as good. Hell, you still have 5 or 6 guys just as good. Shame on you, Doug Melvin. Shame on you. Anyway, hurray for the crazy baseball offseason, and thank God Billy Beane hasn't really gotten involved in it yet.

Also of more importance:



National Hero and 49er pro bowler Frank Gore scored a touchdown a couple minutes ago, bringin the Niners back into this game 20-13. The Cardinals are driving, but San Diego's handling Seahwaks, and so the playoff hopes are, for the moment, still alive. This defense could use a stand, though.

Half Live Blogging the 49er Playoff Hopes:
Neil Rackers missed a kick and so the Cardinals extended the lead to 23-13. Oh wait that doesn't make any sense. Thanks refs! Mo Hicks had a sexy return after that but National Hero Frank Gore made a slight gaffe and tapped a slightly too high Alex Smith pass into the arms of Antrel Rolle. The Niners just made a defensive stand and got the ball back, but Arnaz Battle has, as I typed this, fumbled away to the Cardinals. The Seahawks are still losing 13-7, but things aren't looking good on the 49er part.

LiveEdit2:
4th and 6 inside the 20. It more or less all comes down to this. With suspension building, tension at an unbelievable high........timeout. Cut to commercial. Awesome. And no NFL, I don't want to help you decide your best Super Bowl Commercial ever.

Okay so here we go. Dilfer and SexyCoach Mike Nolan are talking. The snap. ALEX SMITH TO ARNAZ BATTLE TO THE ONE. FIRST DOWN, 49ERS. That was exhilarating.

LiveEdit3:
1 yard run from NATIONAL HERO FRANK GORE. Touchdown 49ers. 26-20. This is still a game, folks. Seattle, however, is threatening to score from the 10.

LiveEdit4:
Seattle touchdown. 14-13 Seahwaks over Chargers right now. Cmon you turd LT. Also, 49er defense: it's your time to shine. Stop these runs.

FinalEdit:
Too many first downs. Barring something out of this world, the Cards have it wrapped up. Good season, though, 49ers. Lotsa growth. Lotsa lotsa growth.

FC Preview: Colts @ Texans

I'd just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. I'm very excited about attending this game in person. Not because I have any delusions of the Texans winning, but because I'm intrigued by the idea that I can watch football without hearing about how it is our country.

NFL Picks: Week 16

It's crunch time in the NFL, and I honestly can't remember the last time there were this many teams with a legitimate chance of making the playoffs this late in the season.

In the NFC, three teams (Chicago, New Orleans, and Dallas) have clinched playoff spots and four (Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Detroit) have been eliminated. One more, the Seattle Seahawks, would really have to screw things up to not win the NFC West and Minnesota would require an inordinate amount of help to squeak in at 7-9 (which would be hilarious).

The AFC is every bit as much of a clusterfuck as its weaker counterpart, with three teams having clinched divisions (San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore), a fourth firmly in the driver's seat (New England), and four teams completely out of it (Miami, Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland).

With just two weeks left in the season, that's fifteen teams whose playoff hopes are still completely up in the air. This, folks, is what the NFL means by parity. One of those teams is my Steelers, who at 7-7 currently face two must-win games of their own, plus require any number of scenarios involving other teams winning and/or losing in order to sneak into January. It's a little more nerve-wracking than I would have preferred, but it makes doing weekly picks so much easier - I'm able to make picks strictly on how the outcome of the game affects the Steelers' chances.

Let's begin. Once again, these picks are all against the spread.

Minnesota Vikings 7 @ Green Bay Packers 9 (-3.5), 8 p.m., Thursday
I missed the boat on this one, but on Pigskin I actually did pick the Vikings to both cover and win. Since the pool I'm in only counts record versus the spread, I started off the weekend 1-0. Not that this game matters at all. Minnesota could still make the playoffs if they beat the Rams next week and a bunch of other teams lose, mainly because their conference record is still 6-5. A sub-.500 team in the playoffs would be mind-blowing.
Vikings.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+3.5), 8 p.m., Saturday
The Chiefs only get three and a half against the Raiders? Yikes. Impact on the Steelers: It's actually very good if the Chiefs win out because the Steelers own a head-to-head tiebreaker against them, and if both K.C. and Denver finish 9-7, the Chiefs would do us the favor of knocking Denver out based on a better division record because in any case where more than two teams are tied, division ties are always broken first. The NFL tiebreaker rules are great in that regard.
Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), 1 p.m.
I'm not entirely sure why the Steelers would be favored in this game, but I'll take them and the points. I originally thought about banking on a three-point win for the Steelers and thus picking Baltimore, but that's just so full of bad karma and I didn't feel like toying with fate. I don't have a good feeling about this game at all, but I do think if the offense just goes to max protect and gets some screen passes and little dumps over the middle to Heath Miller going, picking up 5-7 yards on first and second down, getting into managable third down situations, then they'll have a chance. Baltimore's offense did nothing remarkable in the first game, but you're going to score points if your defense only lets the other team have the ball for like 12 minutes. The Steelers need to avoid falling into that trap again.
Pittsburgh.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5), 1 p.m.
I don't really care who wins this game, but the Panthers have looked so woeful recently and Jake Delhomme is still out, leaving the game (and the Panthers' playoff hopes) in the hands of Chris Weinke and his 16-game losing streak. I gotta take the Falcons, who, by winning, would set up a neat showdown in Week 17 in Philadelphia.
Atlanta.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+4.5), 1 p.m.
Another unusually small spread, but that's probably just because Chicago's already clinched everything possible. Doesn't matter, I think I'd take the Bears practice squad over the Lions at this point.
Chicago.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+9.5), 1 p.m.
The Colts get a huge boost in their quest for home field advantage and/or a first-round bye against the Texans, who have never beaten Indy in the existence of the franchise. The Colts deserve a break, though, for knocking off the Bengals for us last Monday night.
Indianapolis.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), 1 p.m.
This is where it gets good. This is one of the most pivotal games in the last two weeks for the Steelers, as pretty much the only thing that can't happen in the AFC is the Jaguars to win out. The Pats' rag-tag secondary in which Chad Scott plays safety against David Garrard coming off one of the best Tommy Maddox impressions we've ever seen, losing to the Titans almost single-handedly by throwing four picks, two of which were brought to the house. It's so bizarre having to root for Tom Brady to do well.
New England.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-2.5), 1 p.m.
It's the first play of the fourth quarter in the 2004 AFC Championship game. Ben Roethlisberger's scattershot throwing has put the Steelers in a pretty big hole (kind of like the whole 2006 season), but he's marched them inside the Patriots 5-yard line with a chance to make it a 7-point game. On third down, Ben throws a perfect fade to Plaxico Burress, who at 6'5" has easily boxed out the 5'11" Randall Gay. All Plex has to do is reach up and catch the ball. Except he realized that there was a defender within ten yards of him and allowed the ball to clank uselessly off his hands before curling into a fetal position in the corner of the end zone. After picking the Giants all year based on the immense amount of talented players on their roster and getting frustrated time and time again, it's occurred to me that I don't even like the Giants. Enough is enough.
New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Is there even any reason this game is being played? Seriously, the teams could just go and have a huge pow-wow at midfield and I doubt anyone would even notice.
Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-4.5), 1 p.m.
Very intriguing. One team will win and keep its playoff hopes alive, and the other will lose and be eliminated. Similar to the Chiefs, the Steelers would own any tiebreaker against the Titans, except it would go all the way down to common games. Thus, having the Titans at 9-7 would be a huge asset in the event that the Jags finish 9-7, too - the Titans have a better divisional record, and that would render Jacksonville's head-to-head win over the Steelers moot.
Tennessee.

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams (-1.5), 1 p.m.
Uh. Go Marc Bulger!
St. Louis.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), 4 p.m.
This is hard because I like rooting for the Larry Factor, but there's an off chance that the Steelers may need the 49ers to knock off the Broncos next Sunday at Invesco, and I have to say I like the chances of that happening much more of the 49ers are still in the playoff hunt and playing a win-or-go-home game.
San Francisco.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-3.5), 4:15 p.m.
This game is pretty huge in terms of affecting the Steelers. Hopefully, it'll still matter by the time this one gets kicked off, but if it does, at least the Steelers won't be eliminated solely based on what happens in this game. That said, if the Bengals win, there'd be no Steelers could surpass them, whereas if the Broncos win, they could still finish 9-7 and if the Chiefs finish 9-7, the Steelers would advance out of the three because of the aforementioned division-first tiebreaking rules. Let's go, Broncos, and knock Carson Palmer around while you're at it.
Denver.

San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5), 4:15 p.m.
It's pretty fucking stupid that Shawne Merriman is going to the Pro Bowl and I haven't seen a single national media guy complain about the fact that he was caught, y'know, CHEATING like three months ago. In baseball, most of the guys who get dragged over the coals for performance enhancing drugs haven't even actually been proven to be cheating, as obvious as it may be and yet there's a huge deal made every time someone says Mark McGwire's name. All cheating is wrong, regardless of what sport, and Shawne Merriman should be under the same scrutiny as Barry Bonds, especially since he actually tested positive for steroids. That little rant over with, I'd just as soon see Seattle lose since it would give the 49ers even more hope and maybe would cause them to play just that much harder against the Broncos in week 17.
San Diego.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5), 5 p.m., Monday
This should be a really fun one to watch, especially since it is one of the few games that has no bearing whatsoever on the Steelers' playoff hopes. I'm going with the Eagles, mainly because no one likes the Cowboys and no one likes Terrell Owens, and I want the rampant Tony Romo manlove to go away.
Philadelphia.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), 8:30 p.m., Monday
This game, if any, is probably the biggest one of the weekend for the Steelers. The Jets could conceivably win out, but so much else would have to go right for the Steelers to make it if that happens. If the Jets split their last two, in Miami and at home against the Raiders, they'd finish 9-7 and would lose a tiebreaker against the Steelers thanks to those pesky common games. Given that the Jets almost certainly won't lose at home to Oakland, if they're going to lose a game it's going to have to be this one.
Miami.



Anthony Smith and the Steelers certainly won't be high-stepping
their way into the playoffs, but with a little luck they could be tiptoeing in.

Breakdown: The Houston Texans -- Beginnings of Crapulence

There are two good memories of being a Texans fan:
1) Franchise opening win over Quincy Carter and the Cowboys
2) The game Aaron Glenn single handedly defeated the Steelers @ Heinz by returning 2 INT's for touchdowns, signaling the beginning of the end for the Tommy Maddox era.

Other than that, it's been pure agony every Sunday. And thats even before getting into the fact that most of the fans around here are too busy talking about Vince Young is the next Steve McNair. The simple fact of the matter is that the Texans still don't know who is good and who isn't good on their team; they've yet to put together a supporting cast of average that can even help determine who is below or above.

I thought we as a blog could look over the entire franchise history, to glean a better understanding of what it takes to make a horrendous franchise right from the beginning. Sound like fun? No? Well, I have to watch this team every Sunday, so we're doing it anyway.

The Expansion Draft
Pick Player Position Team Salary Cap Hit
1 Tony Boselli OT Jaguars $6.89 million
2 Ryan Young OT Jets $563,000
3 Aaron Glenn CB Jets $8.01 million
4 Gary Walker DT Jaguars $5.25 million
5 Jamie Sharper LB Ravens $2.88 million
6 Jermaine Lewis WR Ravens $4.29 million
7 Marcus Coleman CB Jets $5.48 million
8 Seth Payne DT Jaguars $2.78 million
9 Matt Campbell OG Redskins $875,000
10 Matt Stevens S Patriots $565,000
11 Jeremy McKinney OG Browns $405,760
12 Ryan Schau OT Eagles $563,000
13 Charlie Rogers RB Seahawks $563,000
14 Sean McDermott TE Buccaneers $300,000
15 Jabari Issa DE Cardinals $397,000
16 Avion Black WR Bills $460,000
17 Danny Wuerffel QB Bears $556,000
18 Brian Allen LB Rams $452,000
19 Johnny Huggins TE Cowboys $300,000

1) Tony Boseli - Let me get my checklist out. Never played a game for the franchise, was a huge cap number for many years, brought false hope and kept us from drafting good tackles for the first couple of years of our existence. Yep, this guy is an asshole.

2) Ryan Young - I remember this guy being really good in Madden. He played in 2002, and was a key component of one of the worst offensive lines in football history. Not only was he easily beaten, not only did he commit a lot of false start penalties, but he led the Texans to rankings of 32nd and 29th of the 32 NFL teams on runs to the right tackle and runs to the right end, respectively. Was mercifully released, and retired after the 2003 season.

3) Aaron Glenn/Marcus Coleman - Putting these two together for posterity's sake. Were both great in 2002, but as was known when they were drafted, were on the downside of their careers. Glenn is by far the better of the two, and put together a solid season for the Cowboys last year. After these two left (or slipped, in Coleman's case), the Texans pass defense slipped with them:

2002: 17th
2003: 29th
2004: 18th
2005: 30th
2006: (so far) 30th

4) Gary Walker/Seth Payne - An injury prone front-line; when they were healthy, they were pretty solid, but they've rarely been healthy together. Walker was originally an Oiler, and was selected in two different expansion drafts. He made the Pro Bowl in 2002, and since then has only had one healthy season; 2004. He's since been released. Payne tore his ACL in 2003, and has been probably the best player on the Texans D-Line since, which is kind of like being the best talking head on Baseball Tonight. These two weren't so bad, but there was very little help around them.

5) Jamie Sharper - By far the best player on the Texans defense, but once again, was too old to be helpful forever, and was released after being hurt in the 2004 season. Led the NFL in tackles in 2003. Good player, good pick.

6) Matt Stevens - Not logically able to discuss this player except to say that one of the lasting memories of my Texans fanhood is a mental picture of Matt Stevens flailing onto the ground on a missed tackle.

7) Jermaine Lewis - Made a lot of money and was not very fast anymore at this point in his career. Did not score a single touchdown and was released after 2002.

Nobody else had any lasting impact except Danny Wuerffel, who continued to be a punchline for years to come, and was traded for Jerry DeLoach, who looks a lot like that generic fat black dude who ran the Burger Shack in Harold & Kumar and who plays football about as well as him. He's been with us for awhile now.

Granted it's hard to second guess an expansion draft, but Willie McGinest was unprotected, as was solid LT Roman Oben, who has managed to play a few years here and there while Tony Boselli has managed to eat a lot of things dipped in Aunt Jemima's syrup. Chris Chandler would've given the franchise a credible, if injury prone, backup/starter, which means he would've been dead by Week 3 of the 2002 season. Charlie Batch also would've been a credible backup.

2002 NFL Draft
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
Round 2
33 Houston Jabar Gaffney WR Florida
50 Houston Chester Pitts G San Diego State
Round 3
66 Houston Fred Weary G Tennessee
83 Houston Charles Hill NT Maryland
Round 4
99 Houston Jonathan Wells RB Ohio State
Round 5
136 Houston Jarrod Baxter FB New Mexico
153 Houston Ramon Walker SS Pittsburgh
Round 6
173 Houston Demarcus FagginsCB Kansas State
190 Houston Howard Green DT Louisiana State
Round 7
229 Houston Greg White DE Minnesota
261 Houston Ahmad Miller DT Nevada-Las Vegas

Ok, let me say before we start that I think that offensive line is the most important position on the football field, and I was fully in favor of drafting Bryant McKinnie and his sex boat as the #1 overall pick. That said, David Carr has provided alright return. He's not a great quarterback, he could be a good quarterback with the right personnel around him; kind of like Jake Plummer or Vinny Testaverde. He won't go down as a bust #1 overall pick. The weird thing is that all of the top picks in this draft besides Julius Peppers have been letdowns. Mike Williams was released, Quentin Jammer is horrendous, Joey Harrington is worse than Carr, Ryan Sims is a key member of the early 2000's Chiefs defense that kept them from winning a Super Bowl. When I look at this first round, I don't see it as that talented. Theres Peppers, John Henderson, Ed Reed, and Roy Williams. Levi Jones and McKinnie are both quality left tackles, Jeremy Shockey is a douchebag and okay tight end, and will always be remembered for this:



and Javon Walker is a decent #1 wideout. Nobody else in this first round really turned out to be all that great.

Jabar Gaffney had 1 big year as an average possession receiver and three as a replacement level receiver before he jumped to the Patriots and called us a second class organization. Have fun up there as a fifth wideout, Jabar!

Chester Pitts has matured from a terrible offensive tackle into a mediocre offensive guard. In his first year at Left Tackle, we were dead last on runs and he was beaten numerous times. He actually probably peaked in 2005, either way he's not a part of the problem anymore, just not part of the solution either.

Jonathan Wells had the worst DPAR of any running back in football in his first year in the league, at -23.0, and after a year of special teams, became Domanick Davis' backup back for the next 2 years and was credible if not outstanding. Overall, he was a good return for a fourth round pick. Clinton Portis became a Bronco.

DeMarcus Faggins is a credible dime/mediocre nickel back, and Ramon Walker was an okay special teams gunner and bad safety. Fred Weary is a bad guard, Charles Hill had 2 career tackles.

List of players that we missed out on in round 3: Will Witherspoon, Brian Westbrook, Chris Hope. Thank God for Charles Hill!

Coming up next week...the 2002 season and the 2003 offseason.

NFL picks: Week 11 mk.II

Carolina @ St. Louis (-7)- One of those lines that feels like it could go either way, and when in doubt this season, stay with the underdog. St. Louis' offense scares me, and I do think the Panthers have underachieved this season, so this is mainly a pick that the game will be close. Rams

New England (-5.5) @ Green Bay - The Packers rank second in Adjusted Line Yards, a Football Outsiders stat that tells you what kind of running game the line is generating. Brett Favre has all day to throw and doesn't have to make foolish interceptions because he has a good o-line again. It's sort of funny how Green Bay can create a good offensive line in one offseason and the Texans are still looking for one. My gut in this game says Packers, but you have to remember that my first half of the season was so horrifying picking ATS that I just reverted to using a Sacajawea coin. Sadly, the Patriots won. Patriots

Atlanta @ Baltimore (-4) - I would rather get herp

Michael Vick is to passing what monkeys were to sex, they created herpe

MICHAEL VICK IS A VERY GOOD QUARTERBACK AND A HARD WORKING INDIVIDUAL WHO HAPPENS TO HERPES

Fuck it. Ravens

Oakland @ Kansas City (-9.5) - I'm with Will, except I'm paying attention to my gut here. Green comes back rusty, the Raiders defense puts up a respectable showing, and this just kind of feels like one of those 13-10 games. Raiders

Buffalo @ Houston (-2.5) - This is the kind of trap game that everyone ends up calling for the Texans throughout their history, only to see us blow it. If we do win this game, maybe I could be convinced that we've turned a corner, become a real NFL franchise. But, this is the Texans we're talking about, and the Bills looked pretty impressive hanging with Indy last week.

28.5% of the Houston Texans franchise wins have come against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That number doesn't change this week. Bills

Minnesota @ Miami (-3.5) - I'd go as far as to say that these are the same teams. 2 really good defenses, 2 horrendous quarterbacks who have been known to manage the game, Miami gets the homefield advantage points. So, how do I decide who wins this game?

I guess I'm just gonna have to go with The Dugout



Vikings

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (-3.5) - Ocho Cinco is an important number for this game. Chad Johnson needs another day like last Sunday for the Bengals to win, it's the over/under for points between both teams, it's how many consecutive times Reggie Bush has been stuffed at the line of scrimmage this year. The end of the Saints fluke season begun last week, it continues here. Bengals

Chicago @ New York Jets (-7) - Well, the Bears are involved. So that either means it will be a 30 point win or a 7 point win. Me, I tend to go with my gut instinct. And my gut instinct was "this looks like the score of this football game".

I of course, don't mean Vegas got the spread right. I think the Bears will win 0 to -7. Robbie Gould tacks on a field goal. Bears.

Philadelphia (-13) @ Cunts - Albert Haynesworth returns to action, and whatever crew has to watch this bloodbath will get plenty of time to talk about how reprehensible he is, starting about midway through the second quarter. Eagles.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland - In a vicious twist of irony, the Dawg Pound starts biting Joey Porter. However, this will happen with the Browns down 23-10 in the fourth. Steelers

Tampa Bay (-3) @ Washington - Maybe I'm all alone this year, but I think the Redskins have enough talent to win this game. Jason Campbell is better than Mark Brunell this year by virtue of him being able to complete a pass to a wide reciever, and the only real weakness if that shores up is the fact that the Redskins secondary looks like they were trained by Matt Stevens. Gradkowski, however, can't do anything about this, as he's not that good. Redskins

Detroit @ Arizona (-2). Josh McCown catches the game winning touchdown on a Hail Mary with 8 seconds left, because Denny Green leaves him uncovered downfield, as he thought he was a quarterback. We all know how strongly Denny feels about who he thinks people were. Lions

Seattle (-4) @ San Francisco - Seattle's schedule has as many cupcakes as Boise State's, but they don't have that nifty blue field to make people love them. Seahawks

Indianapolis (-1) @ Dallas - A lot of people are jumping on the Cowboy wagon this week. Don't bother guys, Peyton doesn't really start struggling until the division is officially clinched. Besides, aren't we like three weeks removed from the Cowboys being universally regarded as horrendous? Colts

San Diego @ Denver (-2.5) - I think the Chargers are the best team in the NFL. They'll be winning this game handily in the third quarter, and from then on it's just how many points the Broncos score off of Marty Schottenheimer's feared three and out run up the middle offense. Chargers

New York Giants @ Jacksonville (-3.5) - I say the good Jacksonville team shows up this week. They aren't playing the Texans, the Giants have been horrendous in their last two games, and Jack Del Rio gets to wear a suit. Somebody has to win with a suit. Jaguars

NFL Picks - Week 11

Last season, I tried my hand at doing NFL weekly picks for the first time, courtesy of a pool Bones and Rowdy of Honest Wagner set up over at Pigskin. I did extraordinarily well, finishing in the top 25 on the entire website in straight up picks and just outside the top 25 against the spread. I thought I was hot shit.

This year, I've slipped. While my straight-up picks are still solid, with a .605 win percentage, I've fallen close to Dave Littlefield levels against the spread, with a very mediocre .457 percentage. This leads me to humbly realize picking NFL games is a hard thing to do really well on a consistent basis.

Still, seemingly nothing I've tried this year has gone right, which is frustrating because the HW pool only takes ATS performance into consideration. I either pick the underdogs to beat the spread, and get screwed, or pick the favorites to cover, and get screwed. It hasn't helped that there have been several outrageous spreads this season. For example, I think Indy had a -19.5 line at some point this season, probably against Houston or something. You know the Colts are easily capable of doing that, but it's still the NFL.

This week, I've decided to make my picks purely based on my personal preference of the matchups. I won't completely disregard the actual talent of the teams involved, but these picks will be mostly coming directly from the heart.

Note: I'll just state my ATS pick since that's all that matters for my pool.


Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5), 1 p.m.
This is rough because I really don't like having to actively root for Michael Vick to do well. But it's the Ravens, so there's really no question where to go with this one. Atlanta.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-1.5), 1 p.m.
I really don't have anything invested in either of these teams, but I'll go with the Texans, so they can make Chris/Josh happy. Plus Andre Johnson is really really good. Houston.


Chicago Bears @ N.Y. Jets (+6.5), 1 p.m.
Curtis Martin has passed the Jets running back torch to another Pittsburgh Public Schools product in Kevan Barlow. Barlow played his highschool ball at Peabody High School, proud owner of the lowest graduation rate in the city (52%). Fun fact: that number is still higher than the overall graduation rates of the city schools in Los Angeles, St. Louis, Atlanta, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Cleveland, New York City, and Detroit.

America,

But yeah, football. PPS representing, plus it's fun to pick the home underdog, especially when they're coming off an inspired performance against the Patriots and their momentum has to be at a season high. New York.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Another game featuring a division rival that the Steelers need to have lose. Not the toughest decision of the week. New Orleans.


Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5), 1 p.m.
The real Minnesota Vikings need to make themselves known at some point this season, but I still think they're good enough to beat the Dolphins, which, despite what Peter King thinks, are still not that good. And, a Vikings win would make my cousins in St. Paul happy. Minnesota.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (+5.5), 1 p.m.
Okay, I just have to go with common sense here more than anything, even more than a nagging dislike of the Patriots. New England.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), 1 p.m.
I was actually tempted to pick the Raiders to beat the spread, if only because Trent Green could be rusty coming off his injury. But it's still the Raiders, and I've already picked enough underdogs this week. Kansas City.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5), 1 p.m.
Gee. Cleveland Pittsburgh.


St. Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5), 1 p.m.
Marc Bulger. Not even my recently-sparked hatred of all things Mountaineers can halt the flow of Crusader pride within my blood. The Bulgers are the one family that has gone through West Virginia University with their souls intact and uncorrupted, and I bet it has a lot to do with their SHES upbringing.

Also, the psychological reason I want the Panthers to lose is that the game in Charlotte is the one game on the Steelers remaining schedule that really scares me. A loss today, combined with their lackluster showing on Monday, would make me feel much more confident. St. Louis.


Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5), 1 p.m.
Whee, one of those ridiculous spreads again. But you know what, screw it. I'll still never be able to forgive the Titans for Joe Nedney, and they didn't exactly ingraciate themselves to me by failing to hold onto a huge lead against the shitbirds last weekend. Philadelphia.


Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), 1 p.m.
The answer to the trivia question, "who is the only quarterback I have seen defeat the Pitt Panthers in person" is Bruce Gradkowski. For that, I have immense respect for Bruce Gradkowski. Oh, and he's a Pittsburgh kid, too. Tampa Bay.


Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5), 4 p.m.
The Larry Fitzgerald factor obviously comes into play here. Also, Bob Prince's law of hidden vigorish. Arizona.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5), 4 p.m.
Mike Holmgren is being bizarrely closed-mouthed about the status of Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander, but it really shouldn't matter. The Seahawks have been beating much better teams without those two. Seattle.


Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5), 4:15 p.m.
I'm a fan of the whole flexible scheduling deal. Pigskin apparently isn't, because they still have the picks listed under their original starting times. According to them, there is no Sunday night game. Flexible scheduling allows the Steelers to continue paving the way for the NFL's quest of world domination:

"Fox's decision to move the starting time of the Steelers-Saints game to 4:15 p.m. proved to be beneficial: The game had more viewers than the marquee matchup Sunday night between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears on NBC and ranked as the third most-watched program for the week.

The Steelers' game, which was switched because of the NFL's new "flex scheduling" with the networks, had 21.8 million viewers. The only programs with more viewers last week were ABC's "Desperate Housewives" (22.3 million) and "Dancing With The Stars" (22 million)."

Anyone who still doesn't think the Steelers have the best fanbase in the NFL should take note.

Anyway, I like the Colts. I'll say right here that if the Steelers aren't going to pull off the miracle to end all miracles, I'd be perfectly happy seeing the Colts finally win one. There are many far less deserving teams (like 30 of them), and there's really nothing abrasive or unlikable about the Colts. Well, besides Lil' Ronnie. But he's not Peyton's fault. Indianapolis.


San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-2.5), 8:15 p.m.
The Chargers are really good, and no one really likes Jake Plummer. San Diego.


New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), 8:30 p.m., Monday
I really don't know why the Jaguars are favored. New York.


Take these to the bank.

Little Thoughts

Some musings on the past few days in the world of sports as it pertains solely to me. Since I'm the only person who writes in this blog these days anyway and could very well be the only person who reads it.

• I think this weekend lends a lot of creedence to the theory that in the EPL, no matter how ambitious a club is, there are still basically two teams that can and should expect to win every time they take the pitch. Everyone else is capable of beating everyone else.
  
  Still, what a fucking let down. Win and you're within spitting distance of qualifying for Europe via the league, which would have been pretty remarkable given the atrocious start.

• Pitt has so clearly mailed it in, and to be honest, I'm really not all that upset about it. As long as the Big East is gifted with a BCS berth, Pitt as a football program has reached the stage where anything less should not be considered a success. Losing to Rutgers, for all intents and purposes ended Pitt's chances of playing in the Orange Bowl, so there really isn't any reason to keep trying.
  
  All I care about is one thing: a good showing in the Backyard Brawl. That's our bowl game right there, and given that the game is at Heinz Field, at the very least don't embarrass yourselves. Give me a reason to run around campus shouting "GO HOME MOUNTAINEERS" afterwards.

• I still haven't really weighed in on Yuslan Herrera, mainly because I was going to wait until the signing became official. But then I realized that could take weeks and my opinion will more than likely not change until then, barring a revelation of some inordinate amount of money being paid.
  
  On the surface, though, I really can't say I'm too particularly thrilled. One view is that, provided DL didn't grossly overpay for Herrera's services, this could be the kind of outside-the-box move that could pay dividends a year or two down the road. Yuslan probably won't be ready to pitch in the Major Leagues this season, but this could potentially be similar to Walt Jocketty signing Chris Carpenter to a multi-year deal a year before he was able to make a full comeback. If this gamble pays off, it also makes one of the other starters expendable in a trade (not that I trust DL to take advantage of that or anything).
  
  Then there's the other side of the story, the side that's probably much closer to the truth. Every so often, everyone who writes about the Pirates not named Ed Eagle or Rob Rossi, from Dejan on down to the lowliest bloggers, goes on a crusade about some aspect of the Pirates that is severely lacking. This kind of stuff gets published in mainstream media, and after enough harping, the general ticket-buying public will pick up on it.
  
  Recently, the vogue has been was criticizing the team for making no effort to be competitive (read: spend money) in foreign markets, namely Latin America. So what does DL do? He goes out and says HEY LOOK I FOUND THIS CUBAN GUY and thinks the general ticket-buying public will view that as a problem solved, although the people who brought this problem to light in the first place still won't be fooled.
  
  The same thing happened last winter, when the issue was the complete lack of advance scouting employed by the Pirates. Coincidentally, Dave Littlefield hired an advance scout for the first time ever. Now, as then, Littlefield seems to be making a knee-jerk reaction to something that has been costing the team hit points in the realm of PR.
  
  Bottom line, this may turn out to be a good baseball move, but it still doesn't show that DL has any sort of plan whatsoever. In fact, it tends to make me believe the exact opposite even more. Boy, being a Pirates fan sure is fun.

• The NFL, on the other hand, is a bucketload of fun these days. Days like yesterday are exactly why, as Marty Schottenheimer says, "the NFL is the most popular sport in the world."
  
  Still not going to even think about the playoffs, still not going to even think about the playoffs, still not going to even think about the playoffs...but damn, if the Titans had found a way to pull that one out...Rob Bironas should have fallen over for no reason and taken a mulligan. It's worked for Titans kickers in the past.
  
  It's going to be weird rooting for Michael Vick, Herm Edwards, and the Cleveland Browns at various points throughout the rest of the season. But that's the nature of the NFL, and that really is why the NFL is so great.

• I wonder if Jason Bay and Brian Ching are pals. I saw yesterday while flipping back and forth between the Willie Parker Show and the MLS Cup that Brian Ching is 28 years old, and went to Gonzaga. Jason Bay is 28 years old, and went to Gonzaga. Not that it means anything, and it certainly wouldn't be nearly as cool as Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson being youth league teammates, but it piqued my curiosity, anyway.

• Oh hey, it's college basketball season. It's great when ESPN makes time on SportsCenter to show highlights of your team in what's essentially a token game. Ah, the joys of supporting the fourth-ranked team in the nation. Comeuppance for the Pirates continuously getting shafted on Baseball Tonight, I say.

/season

On December 28, 2003, in the final week of the 2003 NFL regular season, the Steelers traveled to Baltimore for a Sunday night showdown at 6-9, firmly out of playoff contention, while the Ravens had already clinched the AFC North at 9-6. As such, the main focal point of the game was whether or not Jamal Lewis could eclipse Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record of 2105 yards. Lewis entered the game with 1952 yards on the ground, needing to pick up 153 yards to accomplish the feat.

Bill Cowher, proud man that his is, revolved his entire game plan around preventing Lewis from reaching the mark against his football team. The Ravens, likewise, planned on doing everything they possibly could to surpass Dickerson. The game slogged to overtime, highlighted by three Tommy Maddox interceptions and a fake-punt touchdown pass from punter Josh Miller to then-backup safety Chris Hope. Lewis only managed to net 115 yards despite an additional period of play, and the Steelers ended up dropping the game, 13-10.

That game, just over two years and ten months ago, was the last time I've ever had to watch a meaningless football game. Now, thanks to the worst string of bad karma (or whatever you want to call it) I've ever seen, I'm going to have to suit up and watch meaningless football for the next eight weeks.

Mike Shanahan said sometime in the past week something along the lines of, "How on earth are the Steelers 2-5? That's something I'll never know the answer to."

Wrong, Mike Shanahan. You should be more than familiar with the answer to that question now, after watching the Steelers shred your vaunted defense, the same defense that made the Tom Brady-led Patriots offense look like high schoolers. The Steelers marched up and down the field at will against this defensive unit, to the tune of 499 yards. Yes, one yard shy of 500 yards against supposedly the best defense in the AFC.

How does a team lose despite outgaining a team 500-330 and owning a 9-minute advantage in time of possession? The same way the Steelers have lost games all season despite handily winning the statistical battles; turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. And like the other losses, it hasn't been simply the amount of giveaways, but the timing and location. Yesterday was a microcosm of why the Steelers haven't been able to win this season; the Steelers turned the ball over four times inside Denver's 10-yard line. That's a minimum of 12 points needlessly erased in a game the Steelers lost by 11.

A summary of the Steelers' season can even be fractalized to one individual play yesterday. Down 31-20, the Steelers got the ball back with just under 5 minutes left in the game. Ben Roethlisberger, who made about six really poor throws yesterday but was absolutely brilliant the rest of the time, engineered a drive that got the Steelers, once again, inside Denver's ten-yard line. The two-minute warning stopped the clock, and on the first snap after play resumed, Roethlisberger hit Hines Ward on a slant at about the five. Ward, in typical Hines Ward fashion, was determined to get inside the end zone at any cost. Running towards the goal line, he saw John Lynch coming low at him. The only way to break the plane would be to go over the top of Lynch, which Ward tried to do. Unfortunately, he didn't see Al Wilson come high from the opposite side, his helmet jarring the ball loose about half a foot shy of the goal line.

And that was the Steelers season, neatly packaged in one play.

All I can ask for the rest of the season is that we please, please sweep the remaining five divisional games. As long as the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns, are kept in their place, I can extract some form of grotesque satisfaction from this horrid season.

And at the very least, I have this to warm my heart:

Six Word Stories: NFL week 8

Packers 31 - Cardinals 14
Maybe Denny'll crown the Packers, too?

Titans 28 - Texans 22 [Provided by Chris]
Fuck Pacman. Love, OW
OWEN DANIELS

Chiefs 35 - Seahawks 28 [provided by Burgz]
Proof of Superbowl Loser Curse: Seahawks

Jaguars 13 - Eagles 6
Philly's line runnier than chunky soup.

Giants 17 - Bucs 3 [Contributed by Alexandre]
Jeb Terry declared inactive: world mourns

Ravens 35 - Saints 22
The levees broke in second quarter.

Falcons 29 - Bengals 27 [contributed by Alexandre]
Ochenta y Cinco, bueno? Lo siento.

Cowboys 35 - Panthers 14 [contributed by JRDay]
Well, TO wanted Tony to play.

Raiders 20 - Steelers 13
Eye on Northeastern: Hackney suicide watch.

Colts 34 - Broncos 31
Colts continue to distract '72 Dolphins

Browns 20 - Jets 13 [contributed by Alexandre]
Nice catch, Baker! Pool, you cunt!

Chargers 38 - Rams 24 [contributed by Burgz]
Rams: Saint Louis' other mediocre team

CFL: Montreal 24 - Toronto 20 [Included at the request of Alexandre]
MONTREAL 24, TORONTO 20, FUCK YEAH

I give up

I'm at a loss for words. The only possible thing I can say is that, very simply, if you outgain a team 360-98 and lose, God just does not want you to win.

It sucks because to everyone who doesn't actually pay attention to football (the vast majority of football fans, especially here in New England), it'll just look like the Steelers sucked. When in reality, in three of the five losses, the Steelers were the clearly the better team for 90% of the game but coughed it up in spectacular fashion each time. Not to make excuses, but the Steelers should in all fairness be at least 5-2 right now. Sour grapes, I suppose, but there's no denying it's excruciatingly frustrating.

I'm still holding onto the delusional glimmer of hope for a 13-game win streak. Wackier things have happened in football, and with the team's crop of talent, it wouldn't be that huge of a shock. It's going to be really hard, and it almost definitely won't happen, but with the Pirates being the Pirates, Spurs unable to finish to save their lives, the virtual end of a meaningful season for Pitt football, things are really glum in my world of sports. I've even got a bad feeling about Pitt basketball. I don't like that they're ranked #5 before the season even starts because I'm trapped into believing Pitt is just going to do the same thing every season for the rest of my life, which is hang around somewhere in the top 25, do well in the Big East tournament, and fail to make it beyond the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tourney.

I need something to be positive about, and since the Steelers are usually the least disappointing of all the teams I support, they're always the one I'm most likely to think optimistically about.

As a semi-relevant aside, I'm beginning to become a hockey fan. A friend of mine from Buffalo is a huge Sabres fan and he bought NHL Center Ice so he can watch all the games. Through watching games with him, I've started to understand/enjoy the sport much more, and I've been following the Penguins with much greater interest than usual. They're off to a pretty nice start, but even with them I can't help thinking as soon as I throw all of my weight behind them they're going to shit the bed.

Commiseration II

The price I pay for daring to flaunt my colors in Boston is the inevitable, incessant posing of the question, "What's wrong with your team, kid?"

At least, after today, I've finally come up with a concise, reasonable assessment of what exactly is wrong with the Steelers this season, rather than trying to stumble through explaining to people who aren't well versed in football the intricacies of precisely what's going wrong. Now I just simply respond, "Murphy's Law."

In today's case, Murphy's Law comes under the pseudonym "losing three fumbles inside your own thirty yard line." How else do your quarterbacks throw for a combined 433 yards and 5 touchdowns and you still lose? You put the ball on the ground three times well within your own half.

Yeah, the defense got soft at the wrong times. I apologize on behalf of the entire Steelers organization that we are responsible for the ass-kissing Mike Vick will undoubtedly receive in the media in the upcoming days. But if Santonio Holmes just catches a freaking punt, Ben Roethlisberger doesn't mishandle that snap, things they do 99 times out of 100, we're not even having this conversation.

Then, of course, there are the little things like a receiver lining up in the wrong place during a spike that should have led to a game-winning field goal attempt with time expiring. The few inches that allowed Vick to escape and make conversions on two separate third-down plays during the Falcons drive in overtime. It's just frustrating when your team is as talented as the Steelers (and please don't even attempt to argue that the Steelers don't have at the very least a playoff level of talent - they're arguably better than they were last year, and they were the champions last year) and you pile up stupid losses.

The Steelers are 2-4, and the next person to read me a eulogy using that as evidence is going to get punched in the mouth. I didn't realize the football schedule had been pared to just six games. Oh, it hasn't? There are ten more? Well, then. I'm not going to give up on the season until the Steelers are mathematically no longer in playoff contention. There's almost no margin for error right now, but it's not like a 9-1 run would be completely unprecedented, and 10-6 might even earn us the sixth seed again, although I would definitely not count on it.

It sounds extremely homeristic to say this, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the Steelers. We're outplaying some good teams the vast majority of the game, and then letting a few lapses cost us the win. And that's what's so frustrating about this season.