NFL Picks: Week 16

It's crunch time in the NFL, and I honestly can't remember the last time there were this many teams with a legitimate chance of making the playoffs this late in the season.

In the NFC, three teams (Chicago, New Orleans, and Dallas) have clinched playoff spots and four (Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Detroit) have been eliminated. One more, the Seattle Seahawks, would really have to screw things up to not win the NFC West and Minnesota would require an inordinate amount of help to squeak in at 7-9 (which would be hilarious).

The AFC is every bit as much of a clusterfuck as its weaker counterpart, with three teams having clinched divisions (San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore), a fourth firmly in the driver's seat (New England), and four teams completely out of it (Miami, Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland).

With just two weeks left in the season, that's fifteen teams whose playoff hopes are still completely up in the air. This, folks, is what the NFL means by parity. One of those teams is my Steelers, who at 7-7 currently face two must-win games of their own, plus require any number of scenarios involving other teams winning and/or losing in order to sneak into January. It's a little more nerve-wracking than I would have preferred, but it makes doing weekly picks so much easier - I'm able to make picks strictly on how the outcome of the game affects the Steelers' chances.

Let's begin. Once again, these picks are all against the spread.

Minnesota Vikings 7 @ Green Bay Packers 9 (-3.5), 8 p.m., Thursday
I missed the boat on this one, but on Pigskin I actually did pick the Vikings to both cover and win. Since the pool I'm in only counts record versus the spread, I started off the weekend 1-0. Not that this game matters at all. Minnesota could still make the playoffs if they beat the Rams next week and a bunch of other teams lose, mainly because their conference record is still 6-5. A sub-.500 team in the playoffs would be mind-blowing.
Vikings.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+3.5), 8 p.m., Saturday
The Chiefs only get three and a half against the Raiders? Yikes. Impact on the Steelers: It's actually very good if the Chiefs win out because the Steelers own a head-to-head tiebreaker against them, and if both K.C. and Denver finish 9-7, the Chiefs would do us the favor of knocking Denver out based on a better division record because in any case where more than two teams are tied, division ties are always broken first. The NFL tiebreaker rules are great in that regard.
Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), 1 p.m.
I'm not entirely sure why the Steelers would be favored in this game, but I'll take them and the points. I originally thought about banking on a three-point win for the Steelers and thus picking Baltimore, but that's just so full of bad karma and I didn't feel like toying with fate. I don't have a good feeling about this game at all, but I do think if the offense just goes to max protect and gets some screen passes and little dumps over the middle to Heath Miller going, picking up 5-7 yards on first and second down, getting into managable third down situations, then they'll have a chance. Baltimore's offense did nothing remarkable in the first game, but you're going to score points if your defense only lets the other team have the ball for like 12 minutes. The Steelers need to avoid falling into that trap again.
Pittsburgh.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5), 1 p.m.
I don't really care who wins this game, but the Panthers have looked so woeful recently and Jake Delhomme is still out, leaving the game (and the Panthers' playoff hopes) in the hands of Chris Weinke and his 16-game losing streak. I gotta take the Falcons, who, by winning, would set up a neat showdown in Week 17 in Philadelphia.
Atlanta.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (+4.5), 1 p.m.
Another unusually small spread, but that's probably just because Chicago's already clinched everything possible. Doesn't matter, I think I'd take the Bears practice squad over the Lions at this point.
Chicago.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+9.5), 1 p.m.
The Colts get a huge boost in their quest for home field advantage and/or a first-round bye against the Texans, who have never beaten Indy in the existence of the franchise. The Colts deserve a break, though, for knocking off the Bengals for us last Monday night.
Indianapolis.

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), 1 p.m.
This is where it gets good. This is one of the most pivotal games in the last two weeks for the Steelers, as pretty much the only thing that can't happen in the AFC is the Jaguars to win out. The Pats' rag-tag secondary in which Chad Scott plays safety against David Garrard coming off one of the best Tommy Maddox impressions we've ever seen, losing to the Titans almost single-handedly by throwing four picks, two of which were brought to the house. It's so bizarre having to root for Tom Brady to do well.
New England.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-2.5), 1 p.m.
It's the first play of the fourth quarter in the 2004 AFC Championship game. Ben Roethlisberger's scattershot throwing has put the Steelers in a pretty big hole (kind of like the whole 2006 season), but he's marched them inside the Patriots 5-yard line with a chance to make it a 7-point game. On third down, Ben throws a perfect fade to Plaxico Burress, who at 6'5" has easily boxed out the 5'11" Randall Gay. All Plex has to do is reach up and catch the ball. Except he realized that there was a defender within ten yards of him and allowed the ball to clank uselessly off his hands before curling into a fetal position in the corner of the end zone. After picking the Giants all year based on the immense amount of talented players on their roster and getting frustrated time and time again, it's occurred to me that I don't even like the Giants. Enough is enough.
New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Is there even any reason this game is being played? Seriously, the teams could just go and have a huge pow-wow at midfield and I doubt anyone would even notice.
Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-4.5), 1 p.m.
Very intriguing. One team will win and keep its playoff hopes alive, and the other will lose and be eliminated. Similar to the Chiefs, the Steelers would own any tiebreaker against the Titans, except it would go all the way down to common games. Thus, having the Titans at 9-7 would be a huge asset in the event that the Jags finish 9-7, too - the Titans have a better divisional record, and that would render Jacksonville's head-to-head win over the Steelers moot.
Tennessee.

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams (-1.5), 1 p.m.
Uh. Go Marc Bulger!
St. Louis.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), 4 p.m.
This is hard because I like rooting for the Larry Factor, but there's an off chance that the Steelers may need the 49ers to knock off the Broncos next Sunday at Invesco, and I have to say I like the chances of that happening much more of the 49ers are still in the playoff hunt and playing a win-or-go-home game.
San Francisco.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-3.5), 4:15 p.m.
This game is pretty huge in terms of affecting the Steelers. Hopefully, it'll still matter by the time this one gets kicked off, but if it does, at least the Steelers won't be eliminated solely based on what happens in this game. That said, if the Bengals win, there'd be no Steelers could surpass them, whereas if the Broncos win, they could still finish 9-7 and if the Chiefs finish 9-7, the Steelers would advance out of the three because of the aforementioned division-first tiebreaking rules. Let's go, Broncos, and knock Carson Palmer around while you're at it.
Denver.

San Diego Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5), 4:15 p.m.
It's pretty fucking stupid that Shawne Merriman is going to the Pro Bowl and I haven't seen a single national media guy complain about the fact that he was caught, y'know, CHEATING like three months ago. In baseball, most of the guys who get dragged over the coals for performance enhancing drugs haven't even actually been proven to be cheating, as obvious as it may be and yet there's a huge deal made every time someone says Mark McGwire's name. All cheating is wrong, regardless of what sport, and Shawne Merriman should be under the same scrutiny as Barry Bonds, especially since he actually tested positive for steroids. That little rant over with, I'd just as soon see Seattle lose since it would give the 49ers even more hope and maybe would cause them to play just that much harder against the Broncos in week 17.
San Diego.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5), 5 p.m., Monday
This should be a really fun one to watch, especially since it is one of the few games that has no bearing whatsoever on the Steelers' playoff hopes. I'm going with the Eagles, mainly because no one likes the Cowboys and no one likes Terrell Owens, and I want the rampant Tony Romo manlove to go away.
Philadelphia.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), 8:30 p.m., Monday
This game, if any, is probably the biggest one of the weekend for the Steelers. The Jets could conceivably win out, but so much else would have to go right for the Steelers to make it if that happens. If the Jets split their last two, in Miami and at home against the Raiders, they'd finish 9-7 and would lose a tiebreaker against the Steelers thanks to those pesky common games. Given that the Jets almost certainly won't lose at home to Oakland, if they're going to lose a game it's going to have to be this one.
Miami.



Anthony Smith and the Steelers certainly won't be high-stepping
their way into the playoffs, but with a little luck they could be tiptoeing in.

NFL picks: Week 11 mk.II

Carolina @ St. Louis (-7)- One of those lines that feels like it could go either way, and when in doubt this season, stay with the underdog. St. Louis' offense scares me, and I do think the Panthers have underachieved this season, so this is mainly a pick that the game will be close. Rams

New England (-5.5) @ Green Bay - The Packers rank second in Adjusted Line Yards, a Football Outsiders stat that tells you what kind of running game the line is generating. Brett Favre has all day to throw and doesn't have to make foolish interceptions because he has a good o-line again. It's sort of funny how Green Bay can create a good offensive line in one offseason and the Texans are still looking for one. My gut in this game says Packers, but you have to remember that my first half of the season was so horrifying picking ATS that I just reverted to using a Sacajawea coin. Sadly, the Patriots won. Patriots

Atlanta @ Baltimore (-4) - I would rather get herp

Michael Vick is to passing what monkeys were to sex, they created herpe

MICHAEL VICK IS A VERY GOOD QUARTERBACK AND A HARD WORKING INDIVIDUAL WHO HAPPENS TO HERPES

Fuck it. Ravens

Oakland @ Kansas City (-9.5) - I'm with Will, except I'm paying attention to my gut here. Green comes back rusty, the Raiders defense puts up a respectable showing, and this just kind of feels like one of those 13-10 games. Raiders

Buffalo @ Houston (-2.5) - This is the kind of trap game that everyone ends up calling for the Texans throughout their history, only to see us blow it. If we do win this game, maybe I could be convinced that we've turned a corner, become a real NFL franchise. But, this is the Texans we're talking about, and the Bills looked pretty impressive hanging with Indy last week.

28.5% of the Houston Texans franchise wins have come against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That number doesn't change this week. Bills

Minnesota @ Miami (-3.5) - I'd go as far as to say that these are the same teams. 2 really good defenses, 2 horrendous quarterbacks who have been known to manage the game, Miami gets the homefield advantage points. So, how do I decide who wins this game?

I guess I'm just gonna have to go with The Dugout



Vikings

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (-3.5) - Ocho Cinco is an important number for this game. Chad Johnson needs another day like last Sunday for the Bengals to win, it's the over/under for points between both teams, it's how many consecutive times Reggie Bush has been stuffed at the line of scrimmage this year. The end of the Saints fluke season begun last week, it continues here. Bengals

Chicago @ New York Jets (-7) - Well, the Bears are involved. So that either means it will be a 30 point win or a 7 point win. Me, I tend to go with my gut instinct. And my gut instinct was "this looks like the score of this football game".

I of course, don't mean Vegas got the spread right. I think the Bears will win 0 to -7. Robbie Gould tacks on a field goal. Bears.

Philadelphia (-13) @ Cunts - Albert Haynesworth returns to action, and whatever crew has to watch this bloodbath will get plenty of time to talk about how reprehensible he is, starting about midway through the second quarter. Eagles.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cleveland - In a vicious twist of irony, the Dawg Pound starts biting Joey Porter. However, this will happen with the Browns down 23-10 in the fourth. Steelers

Tampa Bay (-3) @ Washington - Maybe I'm all alone this year, but I think the Redskins have enough talent to win this game. Jason Campbell is better than Mark Brunell this year by virtue of him being able to complete a pass to a wide reciever, and the only real weakness if that shores up is the fact that the Redskins secondary looks like they were trained by Matt Stevens. Gradkowski, however, can't do anything about this, as he's not that good. Redskins

Detroit @ Arizona (-2). Josh McCown catches the game winning touchdown on a Hail Mary with 8 seconds left, because Denny Green leaves him uncovered downfield, as he thought he was a quarterback. We all know how strongly Denny feels about who he thinks people were. Lions

Seattle (-4) @ San Francisco - Seattle's schedule has as many cupcakes as Boise State's, but they don't have that nifty blue field to make people love them. Seahawks

Indianapolis (-1) @ Dallas - A lot of people are jumping on the Cowboy wagon this week. Don't bother guys, Peyton doesn't really start struggling until the division is officially clinched. Besides, aren't we like three weeks removed from the Cowboys being universally regarded as horrendous? Colts

San Diego @ Denver (-2.5) - I think the Chargers are the best team in the NFL. They'll be winning this game handily in the third quarter, and from then on it's just how many points the Broncos score off of Marty Schottenheimer's feared three and out run up the middle offense. Chargers

New York Giants @ Jacksonville (-3.5) - I say the good Jacksonville team shows up this week. They aren't playing the Texans, the Giants have been horrendous in their last two games, and Jack Del Rio gets to wear a suit. Somebody has to win with a suit. Jaguars

NFL Picks - Week 11

Last season, I tried my hand at doing NFL weekly picks for the first time, courtesy of a pool Bones and Rowdy of Honest Wagner set up over at Pigskin. I did extraordinarily well, finishing in the top 25 on the entire website in straight up picks and just outside the top 25 against the spread. I thought I was hot shit.

This year, I've slipped. While my straight-up picks are still solid, with a .605 win percentage, I've fallen close to Dave Littlefield levels against the spread, with a very mediocre .457 percentage. This leads me to humbly realize picking NFL games is a hard thing to do really well on a consistent basis.

Still, seemingly nothing I've tried this year has gone right, which is frustrating because the HW pool only takes ATS performance into consideration. I either pick the underdogs to beat the spread, and get screwed, or pick the favorites to cover, and get screwed. It hasn't helped that there have been several outrageous spreads this season. For example, I think Indy had a -19.5 line at some point this season, probably against Houston or something. You know the Colts are easily capable of doing that, but it's still the NFL.

This week, I've decided to make my picks purely based on my personal preference of the matchups. I won't completely disregard the actual talent of the teams involved, but these picks will be mostly coming directly from the heart.

Note: I'll just state my ATS pick since that's all that matters for my pool.


Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5), 1 p.m.
This is rough because I really don't like having to actively root for Michael Vick to do well. But it's the Ravens, so there's really no question where to go with this one. Atlanta.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-1.5), 1 p.m.
I really don't have anything invested in either of these teams, but I'll go with the Texans, so they can make Chris/Josh happy. Plus Andre Johnson is really really good. Houston.


Chicago Bears @ N.Y. Jets (+6.5), 1 p.m.
Curtis Martin has passed the Jets running back torch to another Pittsburgh Public Schools product in Kevan Barlow. Barlow played his highschool ball at Peabody High School, proud owner of the lowest graduation rate in the city (52%). Fun fact: that number is still higher than the overall graduation rates of the city schools in Los Angeles, St. Louis, Atlanta, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Cleveland, New York City, and Detroit.

America,

But yeah, football. PPS representing, plus it's fun to pick the home underdog, especially when they're coming off an inspired performance against the Patriots and their momentum has to be at a season high. New York.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5), 1 p.m.
Another game featuring a division rival that the Steelers need to have lose. Not the toughest decision of the week. New Orleans.


Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5), 1 p.m.
The real Minnesota Vikings need to make themselves known at some point this season, but I still think they're good enough to beat the Dolphins, which, despite what Peter King thinks, are still not that good. And, a Vikings win would make my cousins in St. Paul happy. Minnesota.


New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (+5.5), 1 p.m.
Okay, I just have to go with common sense here more than anything, even more than a nagging dislike of the Patriots. New England.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), 1 p.m.
I was actually tempted to pick the Raiders to beat the spread, if only because Trent Green could be rusty coming off his injury. But it's still the Raiders, and I've already picked enough underdogs this week. Kansas City.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5), 1 p.m.
Gee. Cleveland Pittsburgh.


St. Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5), 1 p.m.
Marc Bulger. Not even my recently-sparked hatred of all things Mountaineers can halt the flow of Crusader pride within my blood. The Bulgers are the one family that has gone through West Virginia University with their souls intact and uncorrupted, and I bet it has a lot to do with their SHES upbringing.

Also, the psychological reason I want the Panthers to lose is that the game in Charlotte is the one game on the Steelers remaining schedule that really scares me. A loss today, combined with their lackluster showing on Monday, would make me feel much more confident. St. Louis.


Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5), 1 p.m.
Whee, one of those ridiculous spreads again. But you know what, screw it. I'll still never be able to forgive the Titans for Joe Nedney, and they didn't exactly ingraciate themselves to me by failing to hold onto a huge lead against the shitbirds last weekend. Philadelphia.


Washington Redskins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), 1 p.m.
The answer to the trivia question, "who is the only quarterback I have seen defeat the Pitt Panthers in person" is Bruce Gradkowski. For that, I have immense respect for Bruce Gradkowski. Oh, and he's a Pittsburgh kid, too. Tampa Bay.


Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5), 4 p.m.
The Larry Fitzgerald factor obviously comes into play here. Also, Bob Prince's law of hidden vigorish. Arizona.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+2.5), 4 p.m.
Mike Holmgren is being bizarrely closed-mouthed about the status of Matt Hasselback and Shaun Alexander, but it really shouldn't matter. The Seahawks have been beating much better teams without those two. Seattle.


Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5), 4:15 p.m.
I'm a fan of the whole flexible scheduling deal. Pigskin apparently isn't, because they still have the picks listed under their original starting times. According to them, there is no Sunday night game. Flexible scheduling allows the Steelers to continue paving the way for the NFL's quest of world domination:

"Fox's decision to move the starting time of the Steelers-Saints game to 4:15 p.m. proved to be beneficial: The game had more viewers than the marquee matchup Sunday night between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears on NBC and ranked as the third most-watched program for the week.

The Steelers' game, which was switched because of the NFL's new "flex scheduling" with the networks, had 21.8 million viewers. The only programs with more viewers last week were ABC's "Desperate Housewives" (22.3 million) and "Dancing With The Stars" (22 million)."

Anyone who still doesn't think the Steelers have the best fanbase in the NFL should take note.

Anyway, I like the Colts. I'll say right here that if the Steelers aren't going to pull off the miracle to end all miracles, I'd be perfectly happy seeing the Colts finally win one. There are many far less deserving teams (like 30 of them), and there's really nothing abrasive or unlikable about the Colts. Well, besides Lil' Ronnie. But he's not Peyton's fault. Indianapolis.


San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-2.5), 8:15 p.m.
The Chargers are really good, and no one really likes Jake Plummer. San Diego.


New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5), 8:30 p.m., Monday
I really don't know why the Jaguars are favored. New York.


Take these to the bank.