What's eating Carlos Silva's ERA?

Wow. A post by me that has nothing to do with Pittsburgh. Or North London.

However, it does have something to do with a team I am somewhat partial to, that being the Minnesota Twins. I've had family in the Twin Cities since I was born, and semi-regular visits expanded to as many as three trips a year from when my grandparents moved there in 1995 or so until my grandfather passed away on New Years Day, 2003. Over the years, I've attended many a game at the Metrodome, starting in about 1997. The Twins, being in the American League, are never a threat to the Pirates, plus they were the underdog for the first few years I watched them. Even now, they're exactly what I wish the Pirates were, being that they've got payroll constraints but still compete every single year because of competent management. Because of all this, I tend to root for the Twins whenever possible.

The big issue of late amongst Twins fans has been the exercising of starting pitcher Carlos Silva's $4.35 million option after a season in which Silva lost 15 games and had an ERA of 5.94. Even though he was a little better than league average in 2004 (14-8, 4.21) and much better in 2005 (9-8, 3.44), I've been told by multiple Twins fans that they are upset about the move because they're convinced Silva, like some pitchers who live or die with sharp control and the ability to summon ground balls seemingly at all, has finally succumbed to his low K rate and been figured out by American League hitters. While I don't know if this extremely small sample speaks for a much larger contingent of Twins fans, I am here regardless to examine whether or not Silva is worth the financial commitment the Twins have made to him for 2007.

The main basis for exercising Silva's option being a wise decision lies within the assumption that he'll come much closer to repeating his success of 2004 and 2005 than his disastrous 2006. In order to do that, we'd have to discern what exactly caused Silva's implosion this season. We'll start by first debunking the myth that Silva's regression was caused by the league "figuring him out." The easiest way to do that is to calculate Silva's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over the past three years, and compare it to the team's overall BABIP during that span.

BABIP is calculated by first determining how many times a batter ended an at-bat by hitting the ball within the field of play with the intent of reaching base. Balls in play = batters faced - walks - hit batsmen - sacrifice bunts - strikeouts - home runs. BABIP, then is simply (H-HR)/BIP.

Here's the math, using stats from Baseball-Reference:

2004

Carlos Silva

869 batters faced
- 35 walks
- 5 hit batsmen
- 7 sacrifice bunts (I can't find numbers of sacrifice bunts allowed anywhere, so 7 is a very reasonable educated guess)
- 76 strikeouts
- 23 home runs
= 723 balls in play

255 hits allowed
- 23 homers
= 232 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 232/723 = .321

Minnesota Twins

6269 batters faced
- 431 walks
- 54 hit batsmen
- 40 sacrifice bunts (obtained by averaging the amount of sacrifice bunts executed by the other 13 American League teams)
- 1123 strikeouts
- 167 home runs
= 4454 balls in play

1523 hits allowed
- 167 home runs
= 1356 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 1356/4454 = .304


2005

Carlos Silva

749 batters faced
- 9 walks
- 3 hit batsmen
- 7 sacrifice bunts
- 71 strikeouts
- 25 home runs
= 634 balls in play

212 hits allowed
- 25 home runs
= 187 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 187/634 = .295

Minnesota Twins

6072 batters faced
- 348 walks
- 43 hit batsmen
- 40 sacrifice bunts (I didn't bother recalculating the average because I can't imagine it being so drastically different as to make any sort of impact in the final numbers)
- 965 strikeouts
- 169 home runs
= 4507 balls in play

1458 hits allowed
- 169 home runs
= 1289 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 1289/4507 = .286


2006

Carlos Silva

811 batters faced
- 32 walks
- 7 hit batsmen
- 7 sacrifice bunts
- 70 strikeouts
- 38 home runs
= 657 balls in play

246 hits allowed
- 38 home runs
= 208 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 208/657 = .317

Minnesota Twins

6066 batters faced
- 356 walks
- 36 hit batsmen
- 40 sacrifice bunts
- 1164 strikeouts
- 182 home runs
= 4288 balls in play

1490 hits allowed
- 182 home runs
= 1308 hits on balls in play

BABIP = 1308/4288 = .305


In each of the three seasons, regardless of his ERA, his BABIP has been between .009 and .017 higher than that of his team's, which shows nothing anomalous whatsoever. On the contrary, it proves that Silva was about consistent in giving up base hits in his awful 2006 as he was in 2004 and 2005. The fact that his BABIP is always higher than the team's is probably due to the fact that he, as an extreme ground-ball pitcher, has been victimized more than the other pitchers on the team by the fast infield caused by the astroturf at the Metrodome.

Furthermore, there haven't been any ominous trends with his strikeout or walk rates. If his K/IP rate was significantly decreasing while at the same time his BB/9 significantly increased, it would send up a red flag that Silva's collapse was indeed a case of simply no longer fooling hitters, but that isn't the case.

However, the one key statistic from Silva's 2006 debacle that was totally incongruous with his previous two seasons is home runs allowed. In 2004, he allowed 23 in 203 innings. In 2005, he yielded 25 in 188 1/3 innings. In 2006, he served up a whopping 38 home runs in only 180 1/3 innings. This alarming habit, when coupled with his declining GB/FB ratios (1.58 and 1.55 in '04 and '05; 1.29 this year), indicates that for some reason, Silva's pitches are not staying down in the strike zone. Either he's locating up in the zone to begin with, or the pitches are simply not moving the way they should. I'd have to watch game tape to have any idea for sure, but it's a solid theory.

Why that would be, I have no clue, to be quite honest. It could be mechanical. It could be medical. It could be both, i.e. lingering side effects from the knee surgery that cut short his 2005 campaign that are forcing him to alter his mechanics. Who knows. But Silva's still only 27, and if he's able to get rid of the home run bug and regain his excessive ground-ball tendencies (and achieving one will more than likely mean achieving the other), there's no reason not to expect him to perform at his 2004 and 2005 levels once again.

The mere likelihood of that happening should be enough by itself to warrant bringing Silva back. The main gripe is that a team as cash-strapped as the Twins needs to be making more shrewd moves financially, but the truth is the Twins would certainly not be able to find a pitcher at that price who would even have much of a shot at performing like Silva did in 2004/2005, let alone one who would only sign for one or two years. A pitcher like Gil Meche, who has barely even approached Silva's previous levels of success, is poised to receive a contract worth $7 or 8 million per season.

There isn't really too much in the way of interior options, either. Johan is Johan, but with Radke hitting the links full-time, the rest of the rotation would stand to be Francisco Liriano coming off a severe injury, Boof Bonser, and who-knows-what after them. Scott Baker? Matt Guerrier? Matt Garza? A team with pennant aspirations really can't afford that many question marks in the rotation. The Twins at least are aware of what Silva's capable of.

The verdict: Silva is a wise investment at $4.35 million. Terry Ryan makes yet another good choice. I wish I could say the same for Dave Littlefield.

Postseason Recap: Five game series are the spawn of the devil

Tigers 4, Yankees 3

Tigers 6, Yankees 0

Funny little thing happened on the way to the Yankees winning the World Series, as they find themselves down 2-1 and sending Jaret Wright to the hill with their playoff lives at stake.

Over at ESPN, we had a bigger split, but the two teams most favored were the Yankees and the Twins. Whoops. I didn't catch most of game two, but I don't think any lineup in the planet was going to put more than six runs in against Kenny Rogers tonight. It's a five game series, and when you play a five game series, these things are bound to happen. Look at these series: Three of the four home teams are losing, and the team that's winning lost two of their best starters and was considered at best a 50/50 proposition against a hot Dodger team. What does that tell us? Nothing matters once you get in a five game series. The sooner MLB figures this out, the sooner we will have the best teams playing deeper into October.

A lot of people are going to point the blame at ARod again for his anemic showing in pinstripes, and you know, rightfully so I guess. But what gets lost up in all his crapulence is that two offseasons ago, the Yankees paid a pretty big price to acquire a stopper for their postseason teams. Randy Johnson has come in, been mediocre in both seasons, and has gotten bombed in two PIVOTAL game threes that have put his team against the wall in back-to-back ALDS'.

Cardinals 2, Padres 0

We have an eighty-three win team here that is one win from the NLCS. And you thought the NL playoffs would lack excitement. The Padres were shutout by Jeff Weaver, which is almost unfathomable. Bruce Bochy really needs to get it through his head that Mike Piazza needs to be starting every game when your team has scored one run in two games.

The deeper question here is: Why didn't anyone else see this coming? Obviously the Cardinals swooned and the Padres were hot, a key factor for people predicting the postseason (This is why the A's were so good in the postseason in 01-03...wait a minute). But, we were really ready to say that a team that starts Geoff Blum at shortstop and Russ Branyan at third base is going to the NLCS? Really? If I were a Cardinals batter I would just slap the ball to that side and hope for the best. It would work most of the time.

Also: Adventures in playoff Bullpen Management.
Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman: one-third of an inning in two games. How does this guy have his job still? I understand it's San Diego and all the owners are too busy living it up in that beautiful city to give a shit, but Bochy has completely fallen asleep at the wheel and cost his team a chance to win at least Game 1 and arguably Game 2 as well.

Mets 4, Dodgers 1

Remember when I told you guys that I hoped Endy Chavez started? Well, that was everything I expected. Not only is he one of the few sparkplugs against left-handers for the Mets, but he actually has the speed and defense to play right-field. Instead of say, Mr. Shawn Green, who has checked out like Roberto Alomar did, minus the head first dives into first base on every play.

This game made me happy. Although we did have to deal with Steve Lyons and Thom Brennaman, who seem to get worse every season. The Mets can't hit lefties blah blah blah. Would it be that hard to give everyone else a chance? This isn't the 1970's anymore. Also, FOX's game presentation continues to be despicable in every imaginable way. Focusing on Chevy billboard ads, zoom ins on every goddamn face, finding every stupid fucking e-list celebrity who ever came to the game (WHOA THERES MATT DILLON! MARY JO HART GOES TO DODGERS GAMES!). I think despite the disparity between every baseball fan's situation, we can put all that aside so we can focus on the worst moment for all of baseball this season: When FOX kept the playoff rights for 7 more years.

A's 8, Twins 3

I'd like to congratulate Jon Raymond on his teams triumphant return to winning postseason series. Since I have nothing to add to this game besides my love of ex-Met Marco Scutaro, I'd like to take on something else here.

Tommy Lasorda commercials. I know it's an obvious (and failing) ploy to get fans of baseball to watch games that don't involve their teams, but I don't think it's doing it for me. Heres what they should've done: Everyone who is a real baseball fan gets sick of this commercial anyway, so instead of airing the commercial normally, have Tommy be featured in every other commercial, then switch the tapes to keep people wondering when they'd see Lasorda again.

Come on, like you wouldn't want to see the dialogue Tommy would have with the Ruby Tuesday's guys. Or John Cougar Mellencamp. Or that chick who gets pissy about them frying green beans. It would be clever, unexpected, and would make people want to watch commercials. Thats exactly why it will never happen.

Postseason Recap: Joe Beimel: The most important person in America

At least according to ESPN.

Dodgers 5 @ Mets 6

It's very hard to express how exhilarating/terrifying it is to watch postseason baseball as a fan of a team to someone who hasn’t experienced it before. Basically, the only thing I could equate it to is asking a girl out for the first time in your life, except it lasts for three hours instead of three minutes. Everything you do is magnified both in your head and in your body movements. So in my case, it was kind of like asking a girl out for the first time in six years. I paced, my entire body was electric. I wasn’t up to talking to anyone who might harsh my buzz.

This game was won and lost by the managers, in my opinion. Willie Randolph, as much as I have bashed him in his tenure in Mets manager, was completely pro-active with his approach with John Maine on the mound. At the first sign of trouble after the first few innings, he went right to the bullpen, even though he ran everyone but Royce Ring out, he won the game. You don’t win postseason games with people who have regular season milestones, and in this case, I thought it was absolutely wonderful that Maine was pitching. I’m not sure if Willie would have been as proactive to the whole thing if Glavine or Pedro was on the mound, and I’d lean towards the answer being “no”. He did not have a perfect game; in my opinion he should have tried to step on the Dodgers’ throat in the sixth instead of letting Guillermo Mota bat, and then handed the last three innings over to Wagner and Heilman. Instead, Randolph let Mota get touched up a bit in the seventh (although he was hurt by the Valentin error), leading the game to be tied again.

On the other side, Grady Little absolutely bungled this game. Game one is the most important game of any five-game series; the Dodgers would have to win three of four games if they lost this game. He went to the seventh with a tie game, and instead of relying on the relievers who got him through the entire season; he brought in a pitcher who had been lit up the last few weeks of the season in Brad Penny, who was thought by many to be injured. Penny immediately coughed up the lead, and the final two runs that the Mets needed to win the game. This was a huge blunder that will be lost under the more ridiculous “two outs at home” double play, which I still can’t believe actually happened.

Other thoughts from this game:

-John Hirschbeck was horrendous in this game, for both sides. He cost the Mets dearly when he called Floyd out and when he wouldn’t call Betemit out, and he cost the Dodgers when Lugo struck out during their three run rally in the seventh. And he wasn’t even the worst umpire today, Kerwin Danley was up to the task, providing a maddeningly inconsistent strike zone.

-Shawn Green has NO RANGE at all. If Endy Chavez were out in right field in the ninth, Wagner arguably could have had a 1-2-3 inning. He’s just a terrible player in all facets of the game right now. I hope he proves me wrong and comes up with some good games the rest of the postseason, but right now I would much rather have Endy Chavez playing.

-Jose Reyes continued to be up and down. His first three plate appearances were just brutal, and then when he stopped hacking at everything, he was the key cog in the comeback, reaching base twice in a row and scoring a run.

-Carlos Delgado is scary when he uses the whole field. It made me wonder what kind of player he could have been if he didn’t have the same kind of power.

-The Dodgers are not really a team with the same kind of star power as the Mets have, where they succeed is by throwing above-average hitter after above-average hitter after you. There aren’t any holes in that lineup, with Betemit batting eighth. I was a little surprised that Ethier didn’t get to play, as Kenny Lofton looked pretty bad out there today.

-It’s bad enough that noted-Met hater Steve Phillips had to be there being a smug cunt about the whole issue, but I was very afraid when Joe Morgan was involved too. Thankfully, Morgan didn’t really commit any mortal sins in this game. He did create this stupid “the most important inning is the half-inning after the other team scores” bullshit, but that was mild in comparison to Phillips’ Met hatred. I don’t understand how he gets assigned to their games every time.

Oh right, there was another game.

A’s 5 @ Twins 2

Not really a lot of managerial blunders in this one. 2-2 game until the seventh, both teams had as close to optimal bullpen usage as can be expected when teams won’t use their closers until the seventh. The Torii Hunter play was brutal, but I feel good for Jon Raymond and his Athletics.

I'd do the Yankees game but since ITS GON RAIN, I'll save that for tommorow.

An Homage to Pat Neshek

This really doesn't NEED to be done, since Neshek has his own blog (the excellent On The Road With Pat Neshek, a firsthand account of Pat's life as a professional baseball player). Despite the extremely interesting content posted by Neshek, though, not enough people know about him. Basically, Neshek is me if I were a pitcher: a righthanded sidearming reliever who loves baseball cards. On top of that, the blog is a great look inside the life of a big leaguer. Neshek looks at himself as a guy with a blog who just happens to play major league baseball, instead of as a major league baseball player who happens to have a blog. For instance, in his October 1st entry, not only did he talk about how exiting it was to watch the Royals beat the Tigers to allow his Twins to become the AL Central champs, but he also lets us know that his dad just finished his 11th Twin Cities marathon. On September 11th, Pat celebrated the 5 year anniversary of the day the world stopped spinning (literally?) by tearing open a box of Topps Allen & Ginter, blogging the results (including the base set completion rate and percentage of doubles!), and wrapping it up with an open invitation to his fans/readers to talk trades with him. Oh, and on top of all this, Neshek posted a 2.15 ERA in his first 29 1/3 innings of his major league career and is warming up as we speak to come into a 2-2 ballgame in a must-win game for the Twins in game 2 of the ALDS.

Postseason Recap: Managers clueless as to when to pull their starters

Yesterday in the opening day of the postseason, we had not one, but two dreadful managing moves that arguably cost teams the chance to get back into games:

Cardinals 5 @ Padres 1

In the fifth inning, with it being a 4-0 game already, Padres manager Bruce Bochy intended to pinch-hit Ryan Klesko in for Jake Peavy, but instead the Padres went to the bench 1-2-3. Instead of double-switching in Todd Walker (who he left in after pinch-hitting in the next inning) anyway, he left Peavy out there to give up another run, which ran the game to 5-0, an almost insurmountable deficit. Had he gone to his bullpen after the fifth, remembering that he had a day off tommorow so there was no need to hold anyone back (not that this didn't work out for him, but I'm just saying), he probably could have gotten zeros or thereabouts for the game. If the game was only 4-1 instead of 5-1, he probably wouldn't have pinch-hit with Mark Bellhorn in the one opportunity they really had to get back into the game, as he would've only needed a single to take it to a one-run game instead of an extra-base hit. Once you get into that scenario, who knows what could happen?

Tigers 4 @ 8 Yankees

After scoring three to get back into this game in the top of the fifth, Tigers skipper Jim Leyland (inexplicably reminding me of war vet dad of Mike Cooper) decided to leave Nate Robertson out there for not one extra inning, but two. This after he had already been shelled for five runs in the third. I understand that the Yankees lineup is good enough to score on any pitcher, but giving them a third or fourth crack at Robertson after they had already solved him is inexcusable. Let Jason Grilli get his chance, let Rodney and Ledezma go a few if you have to. There was no reason to let Robertson give up those extra two runs that buried the Tigers under a huge lead again.

I was also pleased to learn that Chien-Ming Wang is a fan of pasta.

We'll be right back, here on the FOX Future Considerations baseball entertainment fun hour, now featuring actual baseball!



WHAT IF A COMEDIAN RAN FOR PRESIDENT?

What if he won?


WAH WAH WAH CAN I MAKE BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN MY SECRETARY OF STATE HAHA JUST A TEEEENY JOKE THERE KIDS


WHO DO YOU WORK FOR?

Buck: Oops looks like we missed the actual first pitch of the at-bat and they threw over to first and the ball got away, haha. But at least you got to see that commercial where Chevy said that it was American because they helped haul wood to New Orleans after Katrina. Doesn't that make you want a nice heavy duty car regardless of the fact that it's mad overpriced and not as good as Japanese cars? Haha. It should! Also, buy Budweiser because people like to rub my neck.

McCarver: I KNOW I SURE DO JOE DO YOU WANT TO HELP ME PLAY LEGOS

Athletics 3 @ Twins 2

The game relegated to the noon slot so that FOX could continue it's ongoing YES mk. II transformation was the best of the day, with Johan Santana and Barry Zito (assist to free-swinging Twins) turned in an amazing pitcher's duel that was tense into the very last inning. A lot of people questioned Gardenhire's decision to bring in Crain instead of Nathan or Neshek, and had they done that, we might still be playing baseball right now with how deep the A's and Twins bullpens go. The bigger blunder (shockingly leading to me agree with Joe Morgan), was letting Castillo attempt to steal that bag in the first when Zito was having command problems.

Tune back in tommorow, when I will rant about how stupid people are to think that the Mets are done in the NL without Pedro. Or, alternately, where I rip into people on our team for not hitting Derek Lowe. Either way, it should be fun.

The Minnesota Twins can suck my dick

No not really. I'm only kidding about that. I've really got no beef with the Twins. Francisco Liriano and Johan Santana will be a fun duo to watch for years. But, as it unfortunately turns out, the Tigers are a load of big lame meanie chokers, and that leaves my A's stuck against this formidable squad we call the Minnesota Twins. Now, go take a look around the baseball internet world for a few minutes. Come back to me.



Find anybody who thinks the A's have a snowball's chance?


Go around. Look some more.









Didn't think so. So I'm here to present to you why exactly I think we DO have a chance:

A) Billy Beane's $#!@ has to work in the playoffs eventually. One of these stupid philosophies has to bear some fruit. If the slow, powerful OBP Moneyball guys couldn't ever get it done, then these swing away, run swiftly and play good defense A's have to be able to buck the trend a little bit. Right? Riiiiight?

B) They've got Johan, but we've got Barry, and Dan, and Esteban, and Rich. That's nice that Johan will, at the very least, get two starts, all but assuring the Twins at least two wins. But after that they've got a host of mediocrities (Boof notwithstanding. He's a fine pitcher, but he's a rookie. I'm allowed to count that against him in a clearly biased pro-A's article. Cut me some slack), whereas we can boast a solid pitcher in every matchup. More importantly, if he's healthy, and he's on, Rich Harden is every bit as dominating as Johan Santana is. Now it's debateable that he will be, in fact likely that he won't be, but when you've got him as a weapon in your arsenal, and you've got three solid pitchers in Loaiza (second half Loaiza. Dude was all sorts out of wack in the first half, but he really is a solid pitcher), Zito, and Haren who can give you a reasonable shot to win in every game, you're in a good position. Afraid as I am of Boofie and Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Matt Garza, I'm simply not going to roll over and concede this series because of one Johan Santana.

C) Frank Thomas. Thomas is the single most feared hitter in this series. (Yes, yes, Justin Morneau. I know, I know. But go look at the numbers. Where it matters, they had nearly identical seasons, and given that, who are you going to be more afraid of, the absolutely gigantic black man who's a future hall of famer, or the white-as-snow Canadian Morneau? That's what I thought. Now get off my back.) Frank Thomas, moreso than any other hitter in the series (Morneau still included. If the A's are to win anything, mystique and aura have to count for something, and Frank Thomas most certainly beats you in mystique and aura, Mr. Morneau) has the potential to change the entire outcome of the game with one swing. As good as Santana is, I'll give Big Frank a chance against him every time, and if we happen to luck into a position where Frank can get a couple at bats with guys on, we've got as good a shot at scoring off Santana as you can hope.

D) Our bullpen. I trust our bullpen. It may not necessarily be better than the Twins' (I mean really they have a pretty kickass bullpen, just look at some of those numbers when you get the chance) but if we can build a lead behind Zito or any of the other guys in these games we've got a solid, two inning shut down reliever in Justin Duchscherer, a reliable guy who can pick up after a short start or go extra innings in Chad Gaudin, a solid lefty who's been getting big outs in big situations this year in Joe Kennedy, an electric arm in Kiko Calero, and a pretty solid closer in Huston Street who has all the nice intangibles you want out of a playoff closer. Again, all we need is, for three times out of five, a solid start for 6 innings whereupon we can hand it to a really fungible, really reliable bullpen. That's doable.

E) $*@!#%& inevitability. From 2000-2003, we were a pretty reasonable bet to win our division series, at times even the favorite. All four times we lost in five games, at times under ridiculously bad luck scenarios. So now, in 2006, a huge underdog, what reason have I to think that being the favorite is all that meaningful?

F) Finally, our awesome grit and intangible bullshit that depending on who you listen to MUST be what the 2000-2003 A's lacked. Barry Zito is a playoff tested vet. Eric Chavez has been there before too. Frank Thomas is a future hall of famer who's been there before and won a ring last year. Nick Swisher is a vibrant, loose character, the kind of personality that excels when the attention is at its peak. Jason Kendall is the definition of "smart, gritty veteran" who can provide all the leadership nonsense. Ditto Mark Kotsay. Mark Ellis and Marco Scutaro are "professionals." Dan Haren is a "battler." The bullpen has "poise." Huston Street has "ice in his veins." To me, all of this is nonsense. But you know what, the mainstream media creams its collective pants over all of it and maybe now that we have it we'll get past the first round. It of course won't be why we get past the first round, but it'll make for a nice Bruce Jenkins column or something.

And, before I forget, MOST importantly:

G) The playoffs are a damn crapshoot. Plain and simple. Unless you're the Mets in this year's National League, there's no particularly fantastic reason to think you're a shoe in to get anywhere. Most notably, the 2001 and 2002 A's burned a hole through my heart, so the notion that a powerhouse team is a given in any playoff situation is meaningless to me. We've got just as good a chance at beating the Twins as the Twins do at beating us. Stranger things have happened, I've seen them happen, and I'm all but certain that "shit happens" was popularized by a group of people following playoff baseball. Shit most certainly happens. And this is is our year where the shit that happens finally goes our way.

Little Thoughts

A collection of musings on this sunny but brisk Monday morning here in the Hub.

- Congratulations to Freddy Sanchez for not only capturing the National League batting title, but in the process providing an exclamation point on the analysis of everything that's wrong with the Pirates franchise. Sadly, it's not likely to bring about very much change, as Dave Littlefield will undoubtedly pull the trigger on the first Ryan Klesko or Luis Gonzalez he can get his hands on and thus continue the cycle of overpaying guys who had a decent season once upon a 1999 despite the presence of younger, cheaper players who could perform just as well, or win batting titles, or something.

- Congratulations also to the Minnesota Twins, my American League team if I had to pick one due to the abundance of blood relations I have living in the Twin Cities and the number of games I've attended at the Metrodome in the last decade or so, far and away the most of any non-PNC Park sporting venue, even the Altoona Curve's Blair County Ballpark.
However, I do have to say that I think any American League team would be better off facing the Yankees in the first round, especially a team built around one dominant starting pitcher, as the Twins are. If the Twins were to play the Yankees in the ALDS and Johan Sanatana won his two starts, the chances of lucking into a win in one of the other three games is much greater than needing to luck into two wins in five games (or even four, if Santana were somehow able to pitch three games in a best-of-7 series). Regardless, I'll be rooting hard for the Twins. Come on guys, do it for Brad Radke.

- The Pirates closed out the year with back to back shutouts. If I was just emerging from a cave and given this information, I would have assumed Zach Duke and Ian Snell or some combination of the two had started the games for the Bucs. However, the guys taking the mound for the home team at PNC Park the last two days were probably very close to the list of "People least likely to pitch seven consecutive scoreless innings in the same Major League Baseball game," even if such a list were compiled in July.

The Pirates scored three runs on Saturday night, an impressive feat considering they'd plated more than two runs just twice during the eight-game losing streak leading up to the game. The beneficiary of this offensive boon was none other than Marty McLeary. Yes, the Marty McLeary. His mound opponent that night was Bronson Arroyo, creating probably my favorite pitching matchup of the entire season, and my brother got to go to the game instead of me by virtue of actually living in Pittsburgh from September through April.

McLeary is the thirty-two year old of perhaps the most unremarkable Minor League career ever. After attending Mount Vernon Nazerene University, a school supposedly in Ohio although I tend to believe it doesn't actually exist, McLeary was drafted by the Red Sox in the 10th round of the 1997 draft. From then on, he posted a 3.96 cumulative ERA in ten Minor League seasons, splitting the last four between the Marlins, Padres, and Pirates organizations.
He was called up on August 28 with the DLing of Mike Gonzalez and Tom Gorzelanny after enjoying easily his best professional season to date. He was one of the Indy Indians' most valuable pitchers, acting as a swingman, putting up a 2.68 ERA and striking out over a batter an inning while starting 13 games and appearing out of the bullpen in 22 others. At the time of his callup, I'm pretty sure I was the only person on the entire planet who even got remotely excited about the move. But there's nothing not to like about a 32-year-old rookie getting a chance at the Major League level for absolutely no reason.

It wasn't McLeary's Major League debut, as he experienced a thoroughly forgettable stint with the Padres in 2004 in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, but he was determined to come back with a vengeance, thanks to a revamped slider and a diving changeup that were key to his success in Indianapolis. After being used in back to back games during his first series with the Pirates, it looked as if he might go the way of the Vic Santos when he was allowed to pitch in a real game just once in the entire month of September. When Paul Maholm, like every other under-25 Pirates starter not named Zach Duke, experienced some sort of discomfort in his elbow/shoulder/knee/face and was forced to skip a start, McLeary was one of the few options available to take his September 24 start against the Padres in San Diego.

He took the start and ran with it, allowing just one run in five innings to the Padres, in the thick of a pennant race with their rivals in Los Angeles and the half-dozen or so teams still competing for the National League Wild Card. It was all the more impressive considering the fact that he had not appeared in a live game in 20 days. McLeary again took Maholm’s next start by default in the penultimate game of the season on Saturday against the Reds and scattered five hits across seven innings while not allowing anyone to cross the plate.

The following afternoon, taking the hill for the Pirates in the season finale was a pitcher with just about as fun a story as McLeary. This one was left-handed, Nigerian, and about six years younger, but nevertheless a long shot to ever pitch a shutout in the Major Leagues.
Shane Youman, son of a Nigerian-born father, was raised in New Iberia, Louisiana, and was drafted in the 43rd round of the 2001 draft out of Louisiana State, essentially making him the Rob Mackowiak of pitchers. Already off to a slow start than most because of his age when entering professional baseball (22) and low draft stature, Youman was an afterthought as a long reliever, although he was just successful enough to progress one level each year, from short-season Williamsport, to low-A Hickory, to high-A Lynchburg. By 2005, Youman was ready to pitch in Altoona, where he had his worst season as a pro, and his future as a prospect, as if it weren’t doubtful enough, really began to hang in the balance.

In Spring Training 2006, someone within the organization had the brilliant idea of turning Youman into a starting pitcher. This has been widely covered by the Pittsburgh media, but I still haven’t seen the idea actually attributed to anyone. Regardless, it seemed goofy at the time because most of the time, pitchers who struggle as starting pitchers in the Minor Leagues get converted to the bullpen and become lights-out (see: Mike Gonzalez). For some reason, though, Youman experienced the exact opposite. In Altoona’s rotation, his walk rate drop drastically and he was so dominant that he was still a candidate for the Eastern League’s Pitcher of the Year award despite leaving the Eastern League for the greener pastures of the International League in mid-July.

With the Indy Indians, Youman was solid, though nowhere near as overwhelmingly good as he had been with the Curve. Youman was one of two September call-ups the Pirates made from Indianapolis, and made his Major League debut on September 10 in lieu of the injured Tom Gorzelanny. He was mediocre, although he exhibited uncharacteristic wildness that he attributed to nerves. In his next appearance six days later, he served as Gorzelanny’s caddy in Gorzo’s return from his ailments. Gorzo pitched four innings, Youman the next three, allowing just one run in a 3-2 victory over the Mets who at that time were still trying to clinch the N.L. East. It was this performance that caused Mets broadcaster and former first baseman Keith Hernandez to liken Youman to a young Darren Oliver, the main difference being that in his age 26 season, Oliver started 30-plus games at in the Major Leagues for the second consecutive season, while Youman still hasn’t made thirty starts in his entire professional career. Hopefully, the opposites continue and Youman ends up having a Major League career with a sub-5 ERA.

Youman made one more start and one more relief appearance, the latter in a much more effective manner than the first, before Ian Snell’s fatigue due to bad-assedly finishing in the top 10 in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings forced him to miss out on starting the season finale. Youman stepped in, and the rest, as they say, is history. He yielded just four hits in his best Marty McLeary impression, using a well-located sinking changeup to induce a whopping 14 ground ball outs, making the fact that he only struck out one batter pretty much irrelevant.

Apart from the fact that these two guys are both the result of moderately fun stories, the likes of which can only be found in professional baseball (see: Ken Ray), I also have interest in what becomes of them this offseason and next March. It is a given that the Pirates will want a mediocre right-handed pitcher to be the fifth starter next season, because the same thing happens every season. Given the Pirates status, finances, and intelligence of the front office staff, this pitcher will probably end up being not very good, and there’s a good chance McLeary would fare no worse than whoever they bring in at a fraction of the cost, especially if they decide to just bring Shawn Chacon back. At the very least, he’d be a worthwhile addition to the team in the Ryan Vogelsong role, except he’d be more likely to actually get people out. Youman would make a perfect addition to the bullpen, especially since Jim Tracy absolutely needs at least three lefties, especially if one of them is the closer. Damaso Marte is a) not very good and b) about to be a free agent, so that leaves a spot open for Youman, who’s probably better than John Grabow anyway.

Unfortunately, due to the way the Pirates work, in all likelihood neither one will be given much of an opportunity. Sure, they’ll both be name-dropped at the beginning of spring training as being in the running for the annual fifth starter and third lefty reliever derbies, but because of the stereotypes handed down from the scouting department (age, inability to throw really hard), neither one will be given a fair chance. I really hope I’m wrong.

- Congratulations to Sal Torres, who tied Kent Tekulve’s Pirates record for appearances by a pitcher in a single season, having pitched in 94 games this season. In doing so, he became one of just four pitchers to ever pitch in 90 games in a season, which was a surprisingly low number to me. These four immortals are Sal, Teke, Mike Marshall, and Wayne Granger. Sal’s return from five years in which he did not play professional baseball of any sort to become one of the most consistent, durable, and effective relievers in baseball is one of my favorite baseball stories since the turn of the century. I generally don’t like Dave Littlefield and I generally don’t like giving middle relievers multi-year, multi-million dollars contracts. That said, I really do like the contract DL gave Sal last winter, as unpopular as it was at the time. If anyone in our bullpen is worthy of such a prize, Sal is it. He’s the anchor.

- According to Dejan Kovacevic, Dave Littlefield was booed by the 25,004 at PNC Park Sunday afternoon during the postgame ceremony honoring Freddy Sanchez. The season finale is generally a big draw among season ticket holders, so it seems like the fan base is really starting to figure out what’s up.

- Moving across the ocean, Spurs finally kickstarted their season about a month late by taking home three points against high-flying Portsmouth. Sadly, the only thing anyone wants to talk about in relation to this game is Didier Zokora's alleged dive that referee Chris Foy awarded a penalty, which Jermain Defoe converted for Spurs's second goal, a goal that became crucial when Nwankwo Kanu headed home a Gary O'Neil cross five minutes later to cut Spurs' lead in half.

Spurs held on for the 2-1 win, but the main talking point still remains Zokora's antics. Now, let me say that yes, it is pretty obvious from watching the replays that Pedro Mendes did not touch Zokora as the Ivoirian turned him in the box. In case you haven't seen a replay of this, watch this clip.

I am finding it hard making up my mind about this, since there does seem to be pretty overwhelming evidence that Zokora did indeed intentionally take a spill in an attempt to draw a penalty. I don't want to believe that Zokora would do such a thing, especially since, having watched him since the World Cup, he hasn't been prone to such theatrics that I've seen.

However, regardless of what was actually going through Zokora's mind, a point that I have yet to see being brought up is that this all would have been completely rendered moot if Pedro Mendes HAD NOT DRAGGED HIS LEG ACROSS THE DRIBBLER'S PATH. I realize that, as a defender, you have to do what you have to do to stop an opposing player in your own box, but when you stick your leg out like that AFTER THE OPPOSING PLAYER HAS BEATEN YOU, you're asking to be called for a foul if the attacker goes down no matter the reason for the attacker going down.

As for Chris Foy, the idea that he really screwed up in awarding the penalty is ludicrous. At game speed, it would have been nearly impossible to tell that there was no contact made unless you happened to actually be Zokora or Pedro Mendes. I was watching the game with a friend of mine who supports Manchester United, and he was shouting for a penalty as soon as the play happened. Even the commentators on the clip I linked to had no qualms about the penalty decision until they saw a replay. Unfortunately for Pompey, slow motion instant replays from multiple angles are not a luxury Chris Foy possesses when he's out on the pitch having to make spur of the moment decisions.

- I can't really complain about Spurs' performance apart from that, except that Jermaine Jenas really needs to learn how to finish. He's easily been the most frustrating player I've had to watch over the last year. He does so many things right, he tackles well, he moves from box to box, he's willing to play on the wing if Martin Jol deems it necessary, he's capable of putting a dead ball wherever he wants, and he has an uncanny knack for a midfielder of getting himself in excellent positions to score. The problem is, he doesn't score nearly often enough considering the amount of chances he has. On Sunday he had three golden opportunities to net one, but only managed to put it on target once, earning a good save from David James. Of the other chances, one was scuffed and one was shot into the stands. I like Jenas as a player, but I think he needs to be shaken up a little bit. He's the only Spurs midfielder to start every single game in all competitions for Spurs this season, which is ridiculous when you consider the absurd amount of center midfielders currently in the squad.

- I'm even more convinced now after watching the first half of Sunday's debacle at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati that the Steelers are still the best team in the AFC North. I won't concede anything about the Ravens until they play the Bengals and more importantly, the Steelers themselves. Seriously, bring on the Ravens.

On the other hand, it was nice seeing them take care of San Diego so effectively, at least from a defensive standpoint. From the looks of it, they basically gameplanned to take Ladainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates out of the equation, which seems to be the way anyone with a competent defense is able to beat the Chargers. The Steelers did it last year in front of a prime time national television audience in San Diego, and I think they'll be able to do it again next Sunday. Cowher doesn't need to motivate his boys any more than to say, "Look, guys, if the Ravens can do it..."

- Finally, the last play of the Jets/Colts game has to be the best thing ever to transpire on a football field. The NFL needs more of things like that.