The 2003 Houston Texans: Tremors of an actual franchise

Oh, I apologize for the lack of updating around here. Most of us are college kids going back to school. And most of us are lazy.

Stat, Ranking in NFL, Ranking in 2002
2003 DVOA: -21.1%, 29th (31st)
2003 Offensive DVOA: -12.9%, 27th (32nd), -14.4% passing, 25th (32nd), -11.4 rushing, 27th (32nd)
2003 Defensive DVOA: 10.6%, 28th (20th), 15.5% passing, 29th (17th), 6.2% rushing, 25th (21st)
2003 Special Teams DVOA: 2.3%, 8th (12th), huge contributions from both Kris Brown and Chad Stanley this year.

David Carr: 3.7 DPAR, 27th (last)
Tony Banks: 15.0 DPAR, 22nd (n/a)

Domanick Davis: 10.7 DPAR, 26th (n/a) (-8.7 DPAR as a reciever)
Stacey Mack: -0.8 DPAR, 46th (12th)
Tony Hollings: -4.5 DPAR, n/r (n/a)

Andre Johnson: 13.9 DPAR, 27th (n/a)
Jabar Gaffney: 5.7 DPAR, 44th (75th)
Corey Bradford: -6.5 DPAR, 75th (82nd)
Derrick Armstrong: 2.5 DPAR, n/r

Billy Miller: 0.8 DPAR, 26th (1st)

Offensive Line
3.68 Adjusted Line Yards, 29th (32nd)
66% Power Success, 16th (29th)
16% Carries of 10+ Yards, 15th (31st)
30% Carries Stuffed, 31st (32nd)
7.3% Adjusted Sack Rate, 25th (32nd)
And ranks running the ball to each position: Left End 20th (26th), Left Tackle 29th (32nd), Middle 31st (31st), Right Tackle 20th (32nd), Right End 25th (29th)

Defensive Front Seven
4.61 Adjusted Line Yards, 31st (18th)
64% Power Success, 13th (24th)
18% Carries of 10+ Yards, 18th (16th)
18% Stuffed, 31st (16th)
4.6% Adjusted Sack Rate, 31st (13th)
22nd, 29th, 30th, 25th, 25th (23rd, 4th, 18th, 12th, 27th)

Secondary
DVOA vs #1 WR: 43.3%, 25th
DVOA vs #2 WR: 9.4%, 11th
DVOA vs Other WR: 3.1%, 13th
DVOA vs TE: 24.1%, 22nd
DVOA vs RB: 22.1%, 29th

The 2003 Houston Texans, like the 2002 squad, won it's first game of the year, shocking Miami at Dolphins/Joe Robbie/whatever stadium. This, combined with the additional win, gave the Texans a public perception of improvement, despite the fact that certain aspects of the team were falling apart.

Credit where credit is due: Zach Weigert quickly established himself as a very capable run blocking guard, bolstering the right side. Greg Randall was a terrible run blocker, but was adequate enough in pass protection to make this the best Texans season ever in terms of adjusted sack rate. Yep, 25th. Thats our highest finish as a franchise.

David Carr showed tremendous improvement, in that instead of looking like an overmatched college kid, he looked like an overmatched NFL quarterback. Stacey Mack was a bust as a free agent, but the emergence of Domanick Davis made it less painful, as he was a major Offensive ROY candidate, but eventually settling for Pepsi Rookie Of The Year (thank you Fantasy Football!). Andre Johnson was a productive wideout from day 1, easing the load on Gaffney. Billy Miller's amazing 2003 season was found out as a fluke as he shat the bed, changed the sheets, and shat on them again for good measure.

One thing that has always puzzled me about the Texans is their lack of faith in Derrick Armstrong as a wideout. He was their second best receiving option this year, and we'll come back to that point again and again.

While the offense, in general, got better, the defense had a rash of injuries. Seth Payne was lost for the year and that was a huge impact up the middle as teams ran all over Steve Martin, Junior Ioane, and the rest of the rag-tag cast of misfits the Texans were forced to run out. More than that, the loss of James Posey to the Bills really hurt the Texans laterally. They were horrendous at defending screens and horrendous at defending on sweep plays, and when you can't stop the run up the middle either, thats a sure recipe to keep the opponents on the field longer. Matt Stevens had thankfully been deposited in the nearest trash can, but Eric Brown was still around letting tight ends keep it wide open. Although he can't be blamed entirely, as the Texans have always seemed to play a LOT of zone defense to me. The rest of the secondary, led by Marcus Coleman's 7 interceptions, was once again top-heavy. Glenn seemed to decline, and the safeties were at best adequate. Marlon McCree was among them, and I'm sure Chargers fans now know why we didn't keep him.

The special teams, again the best part of the squad, was the main thing that carried them on to their close victories. Good punting and good field goal kicking kept them in games.

All these numbers are from Football Outsiders

(I've decided to seperate the offseason into it's own separate post from now on.)

Breakdown: The Houston Texans -- The 2002 Season

2002 DVOA: -39.8% (31st)
2002 Offensive DVOA: -37.8% (32nd), -42.7% passing (32nd), -32.7% rushing (32nd)
2002 Defensive DVOA: 4.1% (20th), 4.2% passing (17th), 4.0% rushing (21st)
2002 Special Teams DVOA: 2.0% (12th), Almost all of this off the leg of Chad Stanley (Texans led the league in net punting)

David Carr: -68.2 DPAR (last in NFL)
James Allen: -5.2 DPAR
Jonathan Wells: -23.0 DPAR (last in NFL among running backs)
Jabar Gaffney: -0.2 DPAR
Corey Bradford: -3.1 DPAR
Billy Miller: 21.1 DPAR (best in NFL among tight ends)
Offensive Line: 3.10 Adjusted Line Yards (worst in NFL), 56% success rate in power situations (29th), 9% of carries went for more than 10 yards (31st), 36% of runs stuffed (last), 14% adjusted sack rate (last by over 3%), and consistent badness running the ball at every position (26th, 32nd, 31st, 32nd, 29th).

Defensive Line: 4.24 Adjusted Line Yards (18th), 71% power success (24th), 17% of carries went for more than 10 yards (16th) 24% stuffed (16th), 6.4% adjusted sack rate (13th), and around the horn, from left end, to left side, to middle, to right side, to right end (23rd, 4th, 18th, 12th, 27th)

I'll have better stats for the 2003 and on versions of this, but this is what I have from 2002. So, deal with it.

The 2002 Texans beat the Dallas Cowboys in their opening game, but in retrospect, it probably would've been better if they had lost, because this team was just like any other expansion team: crummy. Unlike previous expansion teams, the Texans matched the offensive ineptitude to be expected from a rookie quarterback with one of the worst offensive lines ever assembled with a pretty okay defense for an expansion team. Behind the quick tackling of inside linebackers Jay Foreman (106 tackles) and Jamie Sharper (96 tackles, 6.5 sacks), the 3-4 defense was pretty much a success as far as up the middle. The problem was that once you got past Jeff Posey (8 sacks), the team had no lateral speed to deal with runs to the sides. The pass defense, led by Marcus Coleman and Aaron Glenn, was very good at taking away the side routes. The problem was that, as always, the Texans safeties were just dreadful. Eric Brown and Matt Stevens have played a grand total of 0 games since being cut by the Texans, and that wouldn't have been that big of a deal had Casserley not held on to Eric Brown for 3 years trying to pretend that he was good.

As far as the offense, well, "abortion" would be a good word. Any time you have the worst running back DPAR AND the worst quarterback DPAR, thats a good sign that theres a problem. In the Texans four wins, there was only one game where they scored more than 21 points, and that was the game where Aaron Glenn returned two interceptions for touchdowns in Pittsburgh.

However, their defense did keep them in a lot of games, except for that perplexing 38-3 lost against the 2-14 Bengals. And combine this with the Cowboys win, and Charlie Casserly started getting oodles of praise around the city even though his 4-12 record was a complete fluke, and 2-14 was a better indicator of the talent.

OFFSEASON OVERVIEW
Free agents -- OL Zach Wiegert (Jaguars), LB Patrick Chukwurah (Vikings), OL Todd Washington (Bucs), LB Shannon Taylor (Ravens), LB Charlie Clemons (Saints), RB Stacey Mack (Jaguars), TE Justin Swift (49ers), OT Greg Randall (Patriots).

Draft picks -- 1. WR Andre Johnson (Miami); 2. TE Bennie Joppru (Michigan); 3a. DE Antwan Peek (Cincinnati); 3b. QB Dave Ragone (Louisville); 3c. LT Seth Wand (NW Missouri) 4. RB Domanick Davis (LSU); 6a. QB Drew Henson (Michigan); 6b. DT Keith Wright (Missouri); 7a. S Curry Burns (Louisville); 7b. C Chance Pearce (Texas A&M).

Subtractions -- WR Jermaine Lewis (Jaguars), LB Jeff Posey (Bills), RT Ryan Young (Cowboys), OL Cameron Spikes (Cardinals), FS Kevin Williams (released), G DeMingo Graham (49ers), TE Rod Rutledge (released).

Lionized, Casserly preceded to let his best outside linebacker go in free agency, replacing him with Patrick Chukwurah and Charlie Clemons, who truly shored up the problem of quickness in the linebacking corps. Wait, never mind, Charlie Clemons is as slow as the old pervert in Family Guy.

Sadly, I have to give Casserley some props for this offseason simply because it was his best draft ever; Andre Johnson fell to him, and you can debate how first round recievers are a retarded idea, but he is definitely the best player in Texans history to this point. Domanick Davis-Williams was a tremendous fourth round pick. The Drew Henson gamble paid off, although we got nothing for it because Casserley's pick there was stupid. Antwan Peek is a solid pash-rush specialist, although a bit dumb and boisterous. And even when he failed in this draft, Bennie Joppru became one of the beacons of our time, managing to tear his ACL in three consecutive offseasons. A record which may stand forever unless Kellen Winslow starts to really get to work.

Wait, I guess I can still slam Casserly here. I forgot about our old friend Tony Hollings. He was worth a second rounder though, folks! The fact that Casserly would forfeit one of the most valuable spots in the NFL draft for a supplemental pick is, at best, mind-boggling. At worst, I believe it should qualify him for lethal injection. This is Texas, after all. Oh, and the Seth Wand at left tackle experiment in 2004 was one of history's greatest abominations.

Stacey Mack was universally lauded as a free agent gem, but he did nothing. And Zach Weigert's contract was so bloated and monumentally stupid that he's still on our offensive line years later. He's a solid run blocker, and terrible at everything else.

Coming up next week, part 3: The 2003 Houston Texans (Or, they still suck.)

Breakdown: The Houston Texans -- Beginnings of Crapulence

There are two good memories of being a Texans fan:
1) Franchise opening win over Quincy Carter and the Cowboys
2) The game Aaron Glenn single handedly defeated the Steelers @ Heinz by returning 2 INT's for touchdowns, signaling the beginning of the end for the Tommy Maddox era.

Other than that, it's been pure agony every Sunday. And thats even before getting into the fact that most of the fans around here are too busy talking about Vince Young is the next Steve McNair. The simple fact of the matter is that the Texans still don't know who is good and who isn't good on their team; they've yet to put together a supporting cast of average that can even help determine who is below or above.

I thought we as a blog could look over the entire franchise history, to glean a better understanding of what it takes to make a horrendous franchise right from the beginning. Sound like fun? No? Well, I have to watch this team every Sunday, so we're doing it anyway.

The Expansion Draft
Pick Player Position Team Salary Cap Hit
1 Tony Boselli OT Jaguars $6.89 million
2 Ryan Young OT Jets $563,000
3 Aaron Glenn CB Jets $8.01 million
4 Gary Walker DT Jaguars $5.25 million
5 Jamie Sharper LB Ravens $2.88 million
6 Jermaine Lewis WR Ravens $4.29 million
7 Marcus Coleman CB Jets $5.48 million
8 Seth Payne DT Jaguars $2.78 million
9 Matt Campbell OG Redskins $875,000
10 Matt Stevens S Patriots $565,000
11 Jeremy McKinney OG Browns $405,760
12 Ryan Schau OT Eagles $563,000
13 Charlie Rogers RB Seahawks $563,000
14 Sean McDermott TE Buccaneers $300,000
15 Jabari Issa DE Cardinals $397,000
16 Avion Black WR Bills $460,000
17 Danny Wuerffel QB Bears $556,000
18 Brian Allen LB Rams $452,000
19 Johnny Huggins TE Cowboys $300,000

1) Tony Boseli - Let me get my checklist out. Never played a game for the franchise, was a huge cap number for many years, brought false hope and kept us from drafting good tackles for the first couple of years of our existence. Yep, this guy is an asshole.

2) Ryan Young - I remember this guy being really good in Madden. He played in 2002, and was a key component of one of the worst offensive lines in football history. Not only was he easily beaten, not only did he commit a lot of false start penalties, but he led the Texans to rankings of 32nd and 29th of the 32 NFL teams on runs to the right tackle and runs to the right end, respectively. Was mercifully released, and retired after the 2003 season.

3) Aaron Glenn/Marcus Coleman - Putting these two together for posterity's sake. Were both great in 2002, but as was known when they were drafted, were on the downside of their careers. Glenn is by far the better of the two, and put together a solid season for the Cowboys last year. After these two left (or slipped, in Coleman's case), the Texans pass defense slipped with them:

2002: 17th
2003: 29th
2004: 18th
2005: 30th
2006: (so far) 30th

4) Gary Walker/Seth Payne - An injury prone front-line; when they were healthy, they were pretty solid, but they've rarely been healthy together. Walker was originally an Oiler, and was selected in two different expansion drafts. He made the Pro Bowl in 2002, and since then has only had one healthy season; 2004. He's since been released. Payne tore his ACL in 2003, and has been probably the best player on the Texans D-Line since, which is kind of like being the best talking head on Baseball Tonight. These two weren't so bad, but there was very little help around them.

5) Jamie Sharper - By far the best player on the Texans defense, but once again, was too old to be helpful forever, and was released after being hurt in the 2004 season. Led the NFL in tackles in 2003. Good player, good pick.

6) Matt Stevens - Not logically able to discuss this player except to say that one of the lasting memories of my Texans fanhood is a mental picture of Matt Stevens flailing onto the ground on a missed tackle.

7) Jermaine Lewis - Made a lot of money and was not very fast anymore at this point in his career. Did not score a single touchdown and was released after 2002.

Nobody else had any lasting impact except Danny Wuerffel, who continued to be a punchline for years to come, and was traded for Jerry DeLoach, who looks a lot like that generic fat black dude who ran the Burger Shack in Harold & Kumar and who plays football about as well as him. He's been with us for awhile now.

Granted it's hard to second guess an expansion draft, but Willie McGinest was unprotected, as was solid LT Roman Oben, who has managed to play a few years here and there while Tony Boselli has managed to eat a lot of things dipped in Aunt Jemima's syrup. Chris Chandler would've given the franchise a credible, if injury prone, backup/starter, which means he would've been dead by Week 3 of the 2002 season. Charlie Batch also would've been a credible backup.

2002 NFL Draft
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
Round 2
33 Houston Jabar Gaffney WR Florida
50 Houston Chester Pitts G San Diego State
Round 3
66 Houston Fred Weary G Tennessee
83 Houston Charles Hill NT Maryland
Round 4
99 Houston Jonathan Wells RB Ohio State
Round 5
136 Houston Jarrod Baxter FB New Mexico
153 Houston Ramon Walker SS Pittsburgh
Round 6
173 Houston Demarcus FagginsCB Kansas State
190 Houston Howard Green DT Louisiana State
Round 7
229 Houston Greg White DE Minnesota
261 Houston Ahmad Miller DT Nevada-Las Vegas

Ok, let me say before we start that I think that offensive line is the most important position on the football field, and I was fully in favor of drafting Bryant McKinnie and his sex boat as the #1 overall pick. That said, David Carr has provided alright return. He's not a great quarterback, he could be a good quarterback with the right personnel around him; kind of like Jake Plummer or Vinny Testaverde. He won't go down as a bust #1 overall pick. The weird thing is that all of the top picks in this draft besides Julius Peppers have been letdowns. Mike Williams was released, Quentin Jammer is horrendous, Joey Harrington is worse than Carr, Ryan Sims is a key member of the early 2000's Chiefs defense that kept them from winning a Super Bowl. When I look at this first round, I don't see it as that talented. Theres Peppers, John Henderson, Ed Reed, and Roy Williams. Levi Jones and McKinnie are both quality left tackles, Jeremy Shockey is a douchebag and okay tight end, and will always be remembered for this:



and Javon Walker is a decent #1 wideout. Nobody else in this first round really turned out to be all that great.

Jabar Gaffney had 1 big year as an average possession receiver and three as a replacement level receiver before he jumped to the Patriots and called us a second class organization. Have fun up there as a fifth wideout, Jabar!

Chester Pitts has matured from a terrible offensive tackle into a mediocre offensive guard. In his first year at Left Tackle, we were dead last on runs and he was beaten numerous times. He actually probably peaked in 2005, either way he's not a part of the problem anymore, just not part of the solution either.

Jonathan Wells had the worst DPAR of any running back in football in his first year in the league, at -23.0, and after a year of special teams, became Domanick Davis' backup back for the next 2 years and was credible if not outstanding. Overall, he was a good return for a fourth round pick. Clinton Portis became a Bronco.

DeMarcus Faggins is a credible dime/mediocre nickel back, and Ramon Walker was an okay special teams gunner and bad safety. Fred Weary is a bad guard, Charles Hill had 2 career tackles.

List of players that we missed out on in round 3: Will Witherspoon, Brian Westbrook, Chris Hope. Thank God for Charles Hill!

Coming up next week...the 2002 season and the 2003 offseason.

The Utah Jazz - WTF?

Okay, so we're about a quarter of a way through the NBA season and the top team in the Western Conference is...the Utah Jazz?

Lets take a look at who saw this coming,

ESPN's experts seemed to have them on the bubble, although Chris Sheridan and Tim Legler (Tim Legler?) both picked them as the 4 seed. Chad Ford and John Hollinger had them as the 7 seed, and Hollinger gave a pertinent quote:

The Jazz's potentially awesome frontcourt has rarely played together, but if Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur manage 200 games between them then this team is playoff-bound. The upgraded backcourt (Derek Fisher and Ronnie Brewer) should also pay dividends.

Now, to smack Tim Legler down again, because even the broken clock gets the worm.

This team defends, shares the ball and has balance offensively, with seven guys capable of getting 20 points on any given night -- Williams, Kirilenko, Boozer, Gordon Giricek, Mehmet Okur, Matt Harpring, and Derek Fisher.

Oh, of course! Noted 20 PPG scorers like Derek Fisher and Gordon Giricek! Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Tim Legler is still a retard.

Anyway, lets look at how the Jazz have done so far:
UTAH JAZZ
W-L: 16-5 (.762)
Pyth %: .614
Pace: 91.5 (12th)
Offensive Efficiency: 117.1 (3rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22nd)

The offense is based on two things:
1) Crashing the boards. They have the highest OReb% in the NBA (32.8%)
2) Shooting really, really, well. (eFG of 51.0, 5th in the NBA)

Free throw wise, they're mediocre, and they're bottom of the pack in turnovers. I'd say with the rebounding was the part that everyone expected--they were that good last year too, at 32.4%. The shooting has improved from 28th to 5th. The question is: is this sustainable?

Here are the players who are significantly overperforming relative to what they did last year (almost everyone is by a bit, but these are the ones that are more than a point or so off):

Matt Harpring: eFG 2006: 48.5, eFG 2007: 52.7
Deron Williams: eFG 2006: 47.8, eFG 2007: 51.0

Harpring, I think, will probably come down to earth. It's plausible that he is just getting better looks with everyone in though. Williams clearly had the pedigree coming out of college, but most of the stat-based services seemed to disregard him as a real prospect ESPECIALLY because of his poor shooting. He was only ranked as the 4th best prospect in Ed Weiland's 2005 draft preview, which had this to say:

Williams’ ticket will be defense. The offense, at least the scoring part, is pretty weak. He has shot in the low .400s his entire college career, though he has been decent at hitting three pointers, .374. That’s going to be a problem, as players generally need to shoot better than Williams has and get to the line more often than Williams has in college to make it as an NBA PG. I’ve heard Jason Kidd mentioned as a possible comp to Williams. It seems right. Both are big, strong point guards with mediocre shooting ability. But the fact is Kidd wasn’t a poor shooter at Cal

...

He’s big enough that he can guard most SGs and probably some SFs. But that weak shooting ability is going to hurt him, unless he can improve. Right now he looks to me like a defensive-minded third guard. He might start, but it would have to be the right situation, that being a team with a lot of scorers.

Chalk one up for the scouts on this one, I guess. Although I have to say, he did have a Rafer Alston-esque stretch of games late in November. It's too soon to say whether he's turned the corner completely, but if he has, this team sort of reminds me of the 2004 Pistons. Not defensively, obviously, but their five starters can all shoot and only one of them is incapable of creating his own offense (Harpring).

The Jazz actually haven't sent Ronnie Brewer out there much, which is a little surprising because he was considered one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. The big contributor off the bench has been Paul Millsap, who was best known as being the guy who got booed in the Cheesy Doodles clip. Millsap has a 19.97 PER, and is actually a perfect representation of the Jazz as a team. He was a second rounder (not well-regarded), he has range on his shot and is a merciless rebounder (2nd best rebound-rate on the team, only Boozer is better), but is very light for a power forward, giving a bit of his gains back on defense.

Defensively, I can't say I understand the numbers being where they are, because talent-wise this group looks pretty solid. Okur has never been a great defender, but everyone else in the starting five have pretty great reputations. Kirilenko is widely considered a shut-down guy, Williams was drafted with this as a big plus, Harpring has been well-regarded over his career, and Boozer, while not a stud, has shown ability. Even Derek Fisher is highly thought of, off the bench.

The raw stats show them as a team of hackers; they have the worst FT/FGA in the league. eFG-wise, they are holding their opponents to 49.0, which is middle of the pack. As you'd expect, they do great boardwork, finishing third there. The big difference is that they just don't have the turnover margin you'd expect; they are only 24th in the league in TO ratio, at 15.5. Last year, they finished 9th at that.

So, to put it all in perspective; The Jazz shoot well, rebound well, but their pyth indicates that they are playing over their heads a bit. The raw stats have their defense as worse than I think they would be talent-wise, and I'm inclined to believe they will start forcing more turnovers on defense. Deron Williams is key for the Jazz--if he regresses, they are in trouble. I don't know if this will completely over-take the pyth, but I feel pretty good about the Jazz winning their division and getting 55-ish wins. They will have problems in the playoffs against teams that can actually defend though.

Knickerblogger.net's stat pages were a big help to this article. If you'd like to better understand the stats used, please check out the bottom of this page.