Boooring

Remember when the NBA was supposed to have made that shift to favor high-scoring teams that are fun to watch? Remember when the Golden State Warriors proved you can win with smallball? Remember when Jon Raymond still wrote about things like that here?

You couldn't have given a blander, less exciting final four for me. The Jazz are probably the most exciting team left, and it would be funny if the Rockets took the eventual NBA champions to a Game 7, but I can't in good conscious root for any team that harbors Mehmet Okur. While you were reading that sentence, he just got called for a foul and cried about it.


Already crying about not getting the call in mid-shot.

On the other hand, the Spurs have always been one of the dominant teams I've never really had a problem with, except for Manu Ginobli, who takes after Okur in flopping/crying prowess. But the Spurs already have three Duncan-era titles, and another one validates the defense-first philosophy that so bores NBA viewers.

Their likely opponent in the finals, the Detroit Pistons, also exemplify this. We've already seen this series before. It wasn't particularly exciting. The Pistons had the slowest pace in the NBA, while the Spurs had the fourth-slowest. The Jazz are the highest of the remaining teams, right in the middle of the pack in pace. Does this mean I'm rooting for Utah? Would I root for Utah? Can the league survive Carlos Boozer as NBA Finals MVP? Ye Gods, what a nightmare scenario.

Oh, and the Cavaliers are still technically alive too. Don't say that too loudly though, you'll wake them up from their season-long nap. They might have had the easiest path to the conference finals in NBA history, beating up on a Arenas-less Wizards team and the worst Nets team in recent memory. I expect the somewhat less mediocre Pistons to trounce them in 5-6 games. I like the Spurs to take the Jazz in 6-7.

I'll be watching something else at that point though. I've seen watched high-- heard about NASCAR races that were less predictable and monotonous than the result of another Pistons/Spurs NBA Finals.

Jazz Fans,

This linked on Deadspin piece gave me the giggles. Not just this piece, but the blog in general.

There is no way that Houston is a better team than the Jazz.

Um, you do realize that if Carlos Boozer didn't play like Kobe last night, you'd have been blown off the floor by a team that shot 36% from the field, right? Maybe in the regular season, you'd have an argument. Right now though, the only Jazz players who are playing well are Boozer, Harpring, and Williams.

3) Let the broken record play on — Derek Fisher can’t guard Tracy McGrady. Giricek does a far better job defensively, and has a decent offensive repertoire as well.

News Flash: Nobody can guard Tracy McGrady when he drives to the paint. He is very talented, but more importantly, he is a "superstar". As such, he is entitled by dumb NBA refs to get a plurality of foul calls against people like Gordan Giricek. You aren't going to hold McGrady down one-on-one and you aren't going to hold Yao down one-on-one either. Now, if you want to shift the series, heres what you do: Let Rafer Alston shoot uncontested threes. It will work.

4) Memo needs to shoot more, especially at home. I don’t care if he’s had a horrible first two games. He WILL start making those shots.

Honestly, I don't believe this. I think the Jazz are having him play such rough defense on Yao that it's sapping all his energy. He's looked tired. Not saying it can't happen. Just, you know, doesn't seem so likely to me.

I'm also a bit confused by the anger they have over Sloan, yet they still want him to win coach of the year? I wouldn't play Kirilenko the way he's been playing him, and I wouldn't bench Ronnie Brewer either, but NBA Coaches make lots of dumb moves in my opinion. Take for instance, starting Rafer Alston even though he's a complete liability on offense.

The Utah Jazz - WTF?

Okay, so we're about a quarter of a way through the NBA season and the top team in the Western Conference is...the Utah Jazz?

Lets take a look at who saw this coming,

ESPN's experts seemed to have them on the bubble, although Chris Sheridan and Tim Legler (Tim Legler?) both picked them as the 4 seed. Chad Ford and John Hollinger had them as the 7 seed, and Hollinger gave a pertinent quote:

The Jazz's potentially awesome frontcourt has rarely played together, but if Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur manage 200 games between them then this team is playoff-bound. The upgraded backcourt (Derek Fisher and Ronnie Brewer) should also pay dividends.

Now, to smack Tim Legler down again, because even the broken clock gets the worm.

This team defends, shares the ball and has balance offensively, with seven guys capable of getting 20 points on any given night -- Williams, Kirilenko, Boozer, Gordon Giricek, Mehmet Okur, Matt Harpring, and Derek Fisher.

Oh, of course! Noted 20 PPG scorers like Derek Fisher and Gordon Giricek! Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Tim Legler is still a retard.

Anyway, lets look at how the Jazz have done so far:
UTAH JAZZ
W-L: 16-5 (.762)
Pyth %: .614
Pace: 91.5 (12th)
Offensive Efficiency: 117.1 (3rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22nd)

The offense is based on two things:
1) Crashing the boards. They have the highest OReb% in the NBA (32.8%)
2) Shooting really, really, well. (eFG of 51.0, 5th in the NBA)

Free throw wise, they're mediocre, and they're bottom of the pack in turnovers. I'd say with the rebounding was the part that everyone expected--they were that good last year too, at 32.4%. The shooting has improved from 28th to 5th. The question is: is this sustainable?

Here are the players who are significantly overperforming relative to what they did last year (almost everyone is by a bit, but these are the ones that are more than a point or so off):

Matt Harpring: eFG 2006: 48.5, eFG 2007: 52.7
Deron Williams: eFG 2006: 47.8, eFG 2007: 51.0

Harpring, I think, will probably come down to earth. It's plausible that he is just getting better looks with everyone in though. Williams clearly had the pedigree coming out of college, but most of the stat-based services seemed to disregard him as a real prospect ESPECIALLY because of his poor shooting. He was only ranked as the 4th best prospect in Ed Weiland's 2005 draft preview, which had this to say:

Williams’ ticket will be defense. The offense, at least the scoring part, is pretty weak. He has shot in the low .400s his entire college career, though he has been decent at hitting three pointers, .374. That’s going to be a problem, as players generally need to shoot better than Williams has and get to the line more often than Williams has in college to make it as an NBA PG. I’ve heard Jason Kidd mentioned as a possible comp to Williams. It seems right. Both are big, strong point guards with mediocre shooting ability. But the fact is Kidd wasn’t a poor shooter at Cal

...

He’s big enough that he can guard most SGs and probably some SFs. But that weak shooting ability is going to hurt him, unless he can improve. Right now he looks to me like a defensive-minded third guard. He might start, but it would have to be the right situation, that being a team with a lot of scorers.

Chalk one up for the scouts on this one, I guess. Although I have to say, he did have a Rafer Alston-esque stretch of games late in November. It's too soon to say whether he's turned the corner completely, but if he has, this team sort of reminds me of the 2004 Pistons. Not defensively, obviously, but their five starters can all shoot and only one of them is incapable of creating his own offense (Harpring).

The Jazz actually haven't sent Ronnie Brewer out there much, which is a little surprising because he was considered one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. The big contributor off the bench has been Paul Millsap, who was best known as being the guy who got booed in the Cheesy Doodles clip. Millsap has a 19.97 PER, and is actually a perfect representation of the Jazz as a team. He was a second rounder (not well-regarded), he has range on his shot and is a merciless rebounder (2nd best rebound-rate on the team, only Boozer is better), but is very light for a power forward, giving a bit of his gains back on defense.

Defensively, I can't say I understand the numbers being where they are, because talent-wise this group looks pretty solid. Okur has never been a great defender, but everyone else in the starting five have pretty great reputations. Kirilenko is widely considered a shut-down guy, Williams was drafted with this as a big plus, Harpring has been well-regarded over his career, and Boozer, while not a stud, has shown ability. Even Derek Fisher is highly thought of, off the bench.

The raw stats show them as a team of hackers; they have the worst FT/FGA in the league. eFG-wise, they are holding their opponents to 49.0, which is middle of the pack. As you'd expect, they do great boardwork, finishing third there. The big difference is that they just don't have the turnover margin you'd expect; they are only 24th in the league in TO ratio, at 15.5. Last year, they finished 9th at that.

So, to put it all in perspective; The Jazz shoot well, rebound well, but their pyth indicates that they are playing over their heads a bit. The raw stats have their defense as worse than I think they would be talent-wise, and I'm inclined to believe they will start forcing more turnovers on defense. Deron Williams is key for the Jazz--if he regresses, they are in trouble. I don't know if this will completely over-take the pyth, but I feel pretty good about the Jazz winning their division and getting 55-ish wins. They will have problems in the playoffs against teams that can actually defend though.

Knickerblogger.net's stat pages were a big help to this article. If you'd like to better understand the stats used, please check out the bottom of this page.