FC's MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs

Offseason Analysis: My, oh my, did Cubs general manager Jim Hendry go nuts. He went all out this offseason, maybe in the wrong directions, but he still went all out, spent lots of money and brought in a new crop of...um..."talent." Gone are manager Dusty Baker and centerfielder Juan Pierre, but in are new manager Lou Piniella, new centerfielder Alfonso Soriano, new second baseman Mark DeRosa and new starting pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Additionally, Hendry shelled out the biggest contract in Cubs history to third baseman Aramis Ramirez (5 years, $75 million) only to top it the next week with the contract he gave Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million).

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: 2. That was the number of complete games that the Cubs rotation threw last season, both of which were by Rich Hill, and they were in consecutive starts in September. One of them, however was a 5 inning rain out against the Reds. Hill still struck out 10 in the 5 innings, but gave up 3 homers. The other complete game was legit, though, and was a complete game, shutout, 2 hitter against the Reds in his previous start.

Most Overlooked Player: Players can be overlooked in a bad way too, and there's one player on this team whose awfulness nobody has yet considered. Cesar Izturis put up a whopping .613 OPS [yes, on-base and slugging combined], and his name was not mentioned at all from this offseason. Shortstop was not a position that was going to be improved, and there are no in-house options other than Ronnie Cedeno, who is basically the same thing as Izturis. Between the two of them, shortstop will be awful offensively, and nobody seems to notice.

Fun prop bet: Jason Marquis home runs allowed (2006: 35; 2005: 29) vs. Derrek Lee home runs (career average 28). Also, Carlos Zambrano wins vs. Combined wins by Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Take Lee in the first and take Zambrano in the second straight up, but expect neither to cover the spread.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Apparently, Val Pascucci is still around and he's in Cubs camp. He only has a .177 career batting average, but his player profile page on MLB.com still has him in Expos gear.


One of the last remnants of the fabled Montreal Expos

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: This depends on whose expectations we're measuring. As far as the organization goes, it's safe to say that neither Jason Marquis nor Ted Lilly will live up to whatever unreasonably high expectations the team has of them out of two rotation spots following Carlos Zambrano. The same goes for Mark Derosa, as he is unlikely to reproduce the .296/.357/.456 line he put up last season. However, the grandaddy of them all is Alfonso Soriano. His expectations are high all around, whereas for the other players it's mostly internal expectations which are not necessarily shared by the fans as a whole. Soriano, on the other hand, was the big splash this offseason, and everyone knows that he is now a Chicago Cub. The thing is, he's not the final piece to this Cubs puzzle. He'll probably do what he's always done and that is hit .280 and hit 35 homers or so, just this time it will be slightly more valuable out of centerfield than it was last season out of left field. I don't expect him to post a higher OBP than Juan Pierre did last season (.330), and that's not very good out of the leadoff spot, especially when coupled with a high strikeout rate. While he'll certainly be a great improvement over Pierre, that speaks more of the poor season that Pierre had last year. Soriano will be good, and will produce as his career says he would, and while that may be enough to satisfy some fans, he's not the top-10-in-the-Majors type player that the organization paid for or expect.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: This is none other than Ryan "The Riot" Theriot. The players who fit this bill normally project as only utility infielders, and Theriot is just that. He can play all of the infield positions as well as some outfield, and he might just be able to do something with the stick, too, as last year he hit .328/.412/.522. He would be a better option to start at shortstop than Izturis, but he's a great utility infielder as it is. Of course, none of this matters if he doesn't actually make the team, which amazingly he might not.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: It might be too early to write off Ryan Harvey, but it's not looking good for him. He was the sixth overall pick in 2003, is only 22, made the single-A All Star game in 2005, and has shown some power [20 homers last season, 24 in 2005]. However, He's never posted an on-base percentage above .330 [.327 is his high which came in 58 games in low-A in 2004], has never walked more than 25 times in a season, and has struck out more than 120 times each of the past two years. He's certainly not the prospect that he once was, but he's heading down a path that will make him into the "typical, bargain bin corner outfielder." It's looking more and more like he's going to peak as Jacque Jones.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season:
Piniella Goes Apeshit: Ejected for seventh consecutive game amidst 15 game losing streak

A haiku about this teams chances:
New players, faces.
Lots of money spent this time,
Still gonna be fifth.

FC's MLB Preview: Chicago White Sox

Offseason Analysis: Kenny Williams didn't buy into the free agent market like his crosstown counterpart Jim Hendry, mostly staying out of the bidding wars and instead trying to alter the team through trades. He shipped 2005 hero and 2006 bust Neal Cotts to the Cubs for David Aardsma in the first Cubs/White Sox trade since 1998 when the Cubs acquired Matt Karchner for Jon Garland. Williams also tried to capitalize on the insane starting pitching market by shipping off a couple of his starters for minor leaguers. Freddy Garcia was sent to the Phillies for Gio Gonzalez [who was just traded by the White Sox a year earlier for Jim Thome] and Gavin Floyd. In a seemingly odd move, Williams then turned around and traded 23 year old Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers for their top prospect, John Danks and two other minor league pitchers. Ex-Cub Andy Sisco was also brought in from Kansas City in exchange for ex-Cub Ross Gload. Mike MacDougal [who finished 2006 with the Sox], Toby Hall and Luis Terrero all recieved free agent contracts from the White Sox, none of which broke the bank.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Bobby Jenks posted a 7.04 ERA against the Royals in 8 games...however, in those 8 games, all of which were save opportunities, he converted seven of them.

Most Overlooked Player: There's a fun reliever poised to make the team by the name of Charlie Haeger. He came on last season in September and pitched well by having a 3.44 ERA in 18 and a third innings. He also had 19 strikeouts to go along with 13 walks, but it should be known that the kid is a knuckleballer. He won't turn 24 until September, and actually retired in 2003 before coming back and picking up the knuckler. He'll be one to watch bounce around for the next 25 years.

Fun prop bet: White Sox Wins vs. Cubs Wins + 10. Yeah, spot the Cubs 10 wins and you might have an even bet. You might have to expand that to 15, though. But still, even with all the money, take the White Sox. You've also got the ever fun Mark Prior wins + Kerry Wood wins + 5 vs. Mark Buehrle wins. The Cubs haven't won that one in a while, and won't again this year.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Wikipedia Gonzalez has been invited to camp and is trying to win a job as the third organizational catcher in AAA waiting for Toby Hall to get hurt. Eduardo Perez is also a non-roster invitee, and it's at least a little surprising that he didn't get a major league job somewhere since his .253/.324/.452 line is a lot better than some of the other guys that got Major League deals.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Relief pitchers historically have been rather volatile. With the exception of the great ones, closers are prone to season long implosions, oftentimes without any warning. It's far too soon to declare Bobby Jenks one of the all time greats, but at the same time it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say that he could impolde. He put up some less than impressive numbers in the second half, posting a 5.72 ERA and a .836 OPS against.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Scott Podsednik almost took the naming rights from David Eckstein back in 2005 when the White Sox won the World Series, and as long as he keeps showing the grit, hustle and [most importantly] pluck, he should have this category locked up for the rest of his career.


So. Much. PLUCK.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Because a lot of the 2007 White Sox predictions going into the offseason rested on the arm of Brandon McCarthy, it would seem only fitting to put John Danks here, if for no other reason than the Sox are giving up quite a bit now and hoping for a bigger return in a year or two. It's not that Danks' numbers in hte minor leagues are all that bad, except that in each of 2003, 2004 and 2005 he ran into a bit of a rough patch after getting promoted, but that could be expected from a young pitcher going through the minors. So much is going to be expected of the kid because of what fans thought of McCarthy. I'll put him here for lack of anyone better, but note that his overratedness is in debate. The kid is still pretty good.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Scott Podsednik Benched

A haiku about this teams chances:
Brandon, Freddy gone,
Lots of pitching, down to some.
It rests on Vasquez.

FC's MLB Preview: Oakland Athletics

Offseason Analysis: Let me first get this out of the way: WE FINALLY GOT OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WE FINALLY GOT OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WHOOOO.

Anyway, the offseason:

A lot of two steps back, one step forward. Frank Thomas to the Blue Jays? Two steps back. Replacement: Mike Piazza? One step forward. Barry Zito to the Giants? Two steps back. Replacement: Joe Kennedy? One step forward. Joe Kennedy from the bullpen to the rotation? Two steps back. Replacement: Alan Embree? One step forward. You get the idea. Shannon Stewart was the only acquisition that wasn’t accompanied by any stepping back, though now that Mark Kotsay’s been hurt and figures to miss a good chunk of time you could argue that’s negligible. Rule Vers (my favorite type of player) Ryan Goleski and Jay Marshall were also brought in, and at least Goleski has a pretty good chance to stick. All in all, though, not the greatest of off seasons for Mr. Moneyball.


Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: 2. Number of games Mark Kiger played all season, making his major league debut in the ALCS against the Tigers as a defensive replacement for the starter, D’Angelo Jimenez. Yes, it got that bad during after Mark Ellis went down in the ALDS. And no, don’t expect to see Mark ever again. He will make a fun trivia question, though.


Most Overlooked Player: Justin Duchscherer. Easily. I don’t think people realize just how great this guy is. In three full years now with Oakland, his rundown of ERA+ lines looks like this: 143 in 96 IP in 2004, 204 in 85 IP in 2005, 152 in 55 IP in 2006. This guy is the ultimate modern day fireman, and an absolute rock in the bullpen. Goes multiple innings in late close games. Strands baserunners at the time they’re most needed to be stranded. His health is arguably as important to this team as Rich Harden’s or Bobby Crosby’s going into 07.

Fun prop bet: Marco Scutaro: Number of memorable clutch hits: 6. I’m going with the over, just because he earned a lifetime pass from me for this last year:




Funnest non-roster invitee: Lou Merloni. The Boston folkhero just keeps on plugging along. 1,085 career at bats. .271/.332/.384 line. Incidentally enough, that should put him at least fourth on our middle infield depth chart, unless I guess you count Antonio Perez as a middle infielder (and baseball player). Grand holder of the revered, “I’m not D’Angelo Jimenez or Mark Kiger” title.


Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Much as I hate to say it, probably Piazza. Largely because his expectations involve replacing a guy by the name of Frank Thomas who just had the best offensive season for an A since the likes of Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada roamed these parts. A lot of people are thinking, “Well, hey, he hit pretty well at Petco Park last year, and that’s an extreme pitcher’s park, and he also caught, and now he’ll be DHing, he’s gonna have a great season.” I just don’t buy that. He hit .283/.342/.501 with 22 jacks, which is all fine and dandy, but I don’t see where he’s going to improve on that by getting older, switching to the American League, and staying in a pitcher’s park. Call me pessimistic.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Jason Kendall. Man look at this scrapper. Look at his manly stubble. He had that play last year in Texas where there was a past ball, and the dude tried to score from third, and Kendall just got the ball himself and dove at the plate in time to tag him out and win the game. GRIT. DETERMINATION. MANLY STUBBLE.


manly stubble!


Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Javier Herrera. Dude's been hurt. Dude's been caught roiding. He has one professional season with an OPS over .818, at low A. Consider me not quite sold, tools be damned.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Harden Gives Piazza Eyeful


A haiku about this teams chances:
on paper okay
might have shot in al west
injuries will hurt

FC's MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Offseason Analysis: The Diamondbacks had a bevy of talented prospects, and also a lot of rotation holes to fill. They used one to try to fill the other, mostly acquiring starters who had off-years; Doug Davis was taken for the soon-to-be expensive Johnny Estrada and prodigal grandpa Randy Johnson was acquired for a few minor prospects and Luis Vizcaino. Their rotation could best be described as a rich man's Mets rotation, with one sure thing (Webb and Glavine) and a bunch of okay old guys or question mark young'ns (Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Davis, El Duque, Maine, Oliver Perez), and just like the Mets, they have a lineup that shouldn't take much more than adequate.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Arizona pitchers, when batting, had a GB/FB ratio of 5.42 and grounded into 9 double plays, which was 3 more than any other team and 5 more than any non-Phillies team. Keep bunting, boys.

Most Overlooked Player: Well, with a system so full of touted prospects and high-profile pitchers, it's hard to find a real winner for this. I'm going to go with Orlando Hudson. Nominally only known as a good gloveman, the desert air helped him top an .800 OPS for the first time in his career. Far more important than these things though, is the fact that his middle name is "Thill",

Fun prop bet: Luis Gonzalez extra-base hits versus Carlos Quentin home runs.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Former Royal, Pirate, and FC favorite DJ Carrasco, who managed a 14.81 ERA for the Softbank Hawks in 2006. He's got a nifty 6:1 strikeout/walk ratio despite his mediocre 5.4 ERA so far, but he's probably bound for Tuscon anyway.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Jorge Julio, who logged a 3.83 ERA for the Diamondbacks last year, as compared to his recent history (5.06 ERA with the Mets, 5.9 ERA in 2005 with the Orioles), seems pretty unlikely to continue at that pace. Also, he may actually be a werewolf.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Eric Byrnes dives all over the place, he's a true gamer. He gets grass stains in his teeth and goes full-out on every play. His hair is made from twigs and upstaged even Jeannie Zelasko's horrendous do. Maybe the exposure will garner him the votes he needs.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Connor Jackson is not going to live up to the expectations that were set for him in A ball, when he was murdering the ball. He's going to be an average-ish first baseman, in the mold Lyle Overbay made before him.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Big No-Hit: Johnson Blanks Nationals.

A haiku about this teams chances:
young, drew, montero:
seven eighty OPS
between; division

FC's MLB Preview: New York Mets

Offseason Analysis: The Mets looked at Barry Zito, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Jeff Suppan, Tomo Ohka, Javier Vazquez, Bert Blyleven, Oil Can Boyd, and the 1996 Denver Broncos, but decided not to make a move for the second solid starter that everyone wanted them to. The only major loss of the offseason was Chad Bradford, who signed with the Orioles. The only major signing was Moises Alou, who will replace Cliff Floyd as the Mets designated geriatric masher in left field.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Despite Jose Valentin's .271/.330/.490 line, other Mets second baseman at the beginning of the year were so horrible that the Mets ranked 23rd in MLB at OPS by second basemen, at .244/.308/.404, perhaps suggesting that the whole idea of regression by Valentin won't be THAT big of a deal.

Most Overlooked Player: The only player Future Considerations sponsors on baseball-reference, Pedro Feliciano was the real key behind the Mets dominant bullpen last year. Not only did he have the lowest ERA and ERA+, but he got even better after Duaner Sanchez was injured, stepping up with a 1.75 second half ERA. All this, and all they can talk about is Wagner, Heilman, and Bradford. Not bad for someone who pitched for the Softbank Hawks in 2005.

Fun prop bet: Oliver Perez: ERA over/under 4.5. This is the key question of the Mets season, too. I say over, but just barely.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Jose A. Reyes. Just imagine how confusing this could get.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Probably Paul Lo Duca. He's coming off a (second) career year, where he hit almost 30 points above his average. He also incredibly hit .338 in the second-half of the year, as compared to his career .270 average after the All-Star break. I predict he'll hit much closer to .280/.330/.380 this year, with the Hernandez's (Ramon, who the Mets should have signed, and Gaby, who they traded to get Lo Duca) both showing him up.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Easily Lo Duca. Look at all the intangibles and pluck he brings to the plate every time he bats. He willed JD Drew to make that stupid baserunning mistake in game 1 of the NLDS too. Sheer plucky will.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Here's a controversial pick; Phillip Humber. He's been bombed in Spring Training, he was not good in the AFL, he's already been injured once. I'd love to be wrong, as this is my team, but lets be ballsy here and not pick someone like Michel Abreu.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: El Duque? El Pis! Alou teaches Hernandez how to avoid blisters. (Naturally in the Post)

A haiku about this teams chances:
two okay starters:
duque, maine, pelfrey, ollie
mean playoffs again