Friday, March 09, 2007

FC's MLB Preview: New York Mets

Offseason Analysis: The Mets looked at Barry Zito, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Jeff Suppan, Tomo Ohka, Javier Vazquez, Bert Blyleven, Oil Can Boyd, and the 1996 Denver Broncos, but decided not to make a move for the second solid starter that everyone wanted them to. The only major loss of the offseason was Chad Bradford, who signed with the Orioles. The only major signing was Moises Alou, who will replace Cliff Floyd as the Mets designated geriatric masher in left field.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Despite Jose Valentin's .271/.330/.490 line, other Mets second baseman at the beginning of the year were so horrible that the Mets ranked 23rd in MLB at OPS by second basemen, at .244/.308/.404, perhaps suggesting that the whole idea of regression by Valentin won't be THAT big of a deal.

Most Overlooked Player: The only player Future Considerations sponsors on baseball-reference, Pedro Feliciano was the real key behind the Mets dominant bullpen last year. Not only did he have the lowest ERA and ERA+, but he got even better after Duaner Sanchez was injured, stepping up with a 1.75 second half ERA. All this, and all they can talk about is Wagner, Heilman, and Bradford. Not bad for someone who pitched for the Softbank Hawks in 2005.

Fun prop bet: Oliver Perez: ERA over/under 4.5. This is the key question of the Mets season, too. I say over, but just barely.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Jose A. Reyes. Just imagine how confusing this could get.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Probably Paul Lo Duca. He's coming off a (second) career year, where he hit almost 30 points above his average. He also incredibly hit .338 in the second-half of the year, as compared to his career .270 average after the All-Star break. I predict he'll hit much closer to .280/.330/.380 this year, with the Hernandez's (Ramon, who the Mets should have signed, and Gaby, who they traded to get Lo Duca) both showing him up.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Easily Lo Duca. Look at all the intangibles and pluck he brings to the plate every time he bats. He willed JD Drew to make that stupid baserunning mistake in game 1 of the NLDS too. Sheer plucky will.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Here's a controversial pick; Phillip Humber. He's been bombed in Spring Training, he was not good in the AFL, he's already been injured once. I'd love to be wrong, as this is my team, but lets be ballsy here and not pick someone like Michel Abreu.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: El Duque? El Pis! Alou teaches Hernandez how to avoid blisters. (Naturally in the Post)

A haiku about this teams chances:
two okay starters:
duque, maine, pelfrey, ollie
mean playoffs again

No comments: