David Carr's reign of terror is finally over.

Finally tired of bounced passes to running backs, defensive lineman's hands, or slot receivers, the Texans did what they should've done last offseason: rid the team of David Carr. Carr had become something less than the sum of his parts; he was seen as the total package coming into the league. He threw side-arm, sure, but he was athletic, accurate, and had the arm to throw the deep ball. I'm not one for sports psychology, and I won't play one here, but somewhere along the way, these tools did not translate. Gary Kubiak lost all confidence in Carr to throw the deep ball, and he was benched at points during last season. Oh sure, he had the best completion percentage in the NFL last year, but you or I could complete 70% of our passes if they were all screens and slants.

Now, correct conventional wisdom, established back in 2002, became that David Carr was playing on a bad team with a bad offensive line, and you can't throw the ball downfield if you never get time to. However, somewhere along the way, the Texans line moved from "historically awful" to just "bad". Last year, they were 27th in adjusted sack rate (as compiled by Football Outsiders), which is still bad, but not the heights of historical ineptitude that came from Seth Wand, Chester Pitts, and Tony Bos...wait he never played. They had finished dead last twice, and 30th another time. I posit that Carr bought into this and simply started trying to do too much, too fast. Not only did he become turnover prone and unable to make the long throw, but he also started to scramble at the slightest hint that a block wouldn't hold.

I also think the CW that Carr, freed from the oppressive environments of his youth, will suddenly blossom into a capable quarterback is dead wrong. Carr never got over the issues of his rookie season, and putting him in Minnesota or Miami isn't an automatic cure for five years of taking punishment (some self-inflicted) everytime he dropped back for a throw. He even lost the confidence of his teammates, leading Dunta Robinson to say: "We haven't won. I'm not saying it's David's fault, and I'm not saying he can't be a great quarterback with another team. But he's been here for five years, and the best we've been able to do is 7-9. I just think it's time for us to make some moves that'll help the Texans become a winning team."

Either way, two of the "new triplets" that were bandied about in 2004, when the Texans went 7-9, are soon on their way out the door; Domanick Williams and David Carr will not be on the team next season. What does this leave the Texans with? Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, and 500,000 original jokes about Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and the offensive line.

Did trading for Matt Schaub make sense? Absolutely. Was it worth giving up two second rounders? Probably not. The fact of the matter is though, coaches and GM's don't get very long to establish themselves in this business. With Schaub's trade value and money, the Texans are essentially putting themselves into a gambit that Schaub has to be a top 10 QB to equal his value. While thats possible, it's not exceedingly likely behind a line that still needs help stopping the pass. However, I happen to think he's a much better gamble than either JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, or any of the lower round picks. I don't know that he's two 2nd rounders better, but he's got the best chance of any of the QB's on the FA/trade markets or draft to become a reliable quarterback.

Another thing to consider is that the Kubiak regime actually managed to find players in the draft last year (okay, Charley Casserley was still "acting GM" but at that point his opinions were about as relevant as the first third-rounder he ever picked for the Texans), nabbing Williams, Ryans, Owen Daniels, Winston, Charles Spencer, Vonta Leach, and Anthony Maddox, who all played roles on the team last year. Wheras Casserley's best draft move was having the fortune to have Ricky Williams fall to him and ransom the pick for Mike Ditka's entire drafts for two years, with optional rights to his pool on alternate weekends. Kubiak and Smith have the credibility with me as a fan to not question this move. Yet.

This is essentially the new deal for the Texans, Kubiak, and Smith; If Schaub succeeds, it means the end of being a national punchline. If he fails, they'll be the Houston Not Reggie Bush's for another five years. Either way, it's brought back some sense of excitement to the ground; if you're going to lose, you might as well find a new way to lose.

Texans sign Ahman Green, further cement that they are basing personnel decisions off Madden 2002

Here's whats sad about this move: It's not really that bad. In a market where Leonard Davis gets 49 million for no fucking reason, Ahman Green got 23 million, but only 6.5 guaranteed.

But the bigger issue is that it doesn't really do anything for the Texans. Ahman Green was 16th in the NFL in DPAR last year, behind a much better offensive line. That's essentially league average. Ron Dayne, the Texans highest ranked back, was at 28th. But the difference between the two was only 8 DPAR, and Dayne played in only 11 games and started just 6. DVOA, the percentage based Football Outsiders stat, has it as Dayne 4.9%, Green 4.6%. They're essentially the same player.

And in a league where talented running backs are essentially becoming the easiest thing to find in the draft, spending so much money on one who makes so little difference is downright silly. The Texans should be spending their money on young free agents, or at the very least at positions of need like safety, offensive line, or outside linebacker.

And yes, it's easy to criticize and not give any suggestions. So who would I have spent this money on? I'd have gone after someone like Deon Grant, Ken Hamlin, or Kevin Kaeshviharn (so we can have a monopoly on white ex-Bengals who play distinctively non-white positions). I'd sign Josh Bidwell, who in my mind is the best available punter, because we'll be doing a lot of that. I'd sign Alfonso Boone, to give us a prayer of stopping the run. And most importantly, I would sign LOTS of young players and see what you can find. If we're gonna get smacked all year, we might as well see if we can find some quality players that were stuck on the practice squad.

Instead, we have someone who is interested in Jeff Garcia, Ashley Lelie, Ahman Green, and trading up to get Adrian Peterson. Is competency too much to ask for?

All you need to know about the Texans

They're interested in Jeff Garcia.

Also in the article:

The Texans are also interested in receiver Ashley Lelie, who was a No. 1 draft choice in Denver and was later traded to Atlanta.

While I could easily destroy both these ideas at once, I'll just let Football Outsiders do the talking for me:

Top 5 free agents to avoid

...

Jeff Garcia, quarterback, Eagles
Yes, Garcia had a good half-season in Philadelphia. That was preceded by bad seasons in San Francisco, Cleveland and Detroit. The 37-year-old Garcia can be an effective backup in a pinch, but signing him for starting-quarterback money would be foolish.

...

Ashley Lelie, receiver, Falcons
Lelie's speed makes him attractive to teams that like to throw the deep ball, but he doesn't have good hands, doesn't run good routes, and doesn't pick up tough yardage over the middle. Expecting Lelie to be anything more than an extra receiver to come in on third-and-long is expecting too much.

It's gonna be a long decade.

(Also, I know it's passe at this point to post pictures of hot girls in sports blogs, but I don't want to have to look at any pictures of Jeff Garcia.)

The 2003 Houston Texans: Tremors of an actual franchise

Oh, I apologize for the lack of updating around here. Most of us are college kids going back to school. And most of us are lazy.

Stat, Ranking in NFL, Ranking in 2002
2003 DVOA: -21.1%, 29th (31st)
2003 Offensive DVOA: -12.9%, 27th (32nd), -14.4% passing, 25th (32nd), -11.4 rushing, 27th (32nd)
2003 Defensive DVOA: 10.6%, 28th (20th), 15.5% passing, 29th (17th), 6.2% rushing, 25th (21st)
2003 Special Teams DVOA: 2.3%, 8th (12th), huge contributions from both Kris Brown and Chad Stanley this year.

David Carr: 3.7 DPAR, 27th (last)
Tony Banks: 15.0 DPAR, 22nd (n/a)

Domanick Davis: 10.7 DPAR, 26th (n/a) (-8.7 DPAR as a reciever)
Stacey Mack: -0.8 DPAR, 46th (12th)
Tony Hollings: -4.5 DPAR, n/r (n/a)

Andre Johnson: 13.9 DPAR, 27th (n/a)
Jabar Gaffney: 5.7 DPAR, 44th (75th)
Corey Bradford: -6.5 DPAR, 75th (82nd)
Derrick Armstrong: 2.5 DPAR, n/r

Billy Miller: 0.8 DPAR, 26th (1st)

Offensive Line
3.68 Adjusted Line Yards, 29th (32nd)
66% Power Success, 16th (29th)
16% Carries of 10+ Yards, 15th (31st)
30% Carries Stuffed, 31st (32nd)
7.3% Adjusted Sack Rate, 25th (32nd)
And ranks running the ball to each position: Left End 20th (26th), Left Tackle 29th (32nd), Middle 31st (31st), Right Tackle 20th (32nd), Right End 25th (29th)

Defensive Front Seven
4.61 Adjusted Line Yards, 31st (18th)
64% Power Success, 13th (24th)
18% Carries of 10+ Yards, 18th (16th)
18% Stuffed, 31st (16th)
4.6% Adjusted Sack Rate, 31st (13th)
22nd, 29th, 30th, 25th, 25th (23rd, 4th, 18th, 12th, 27th)

Secondary
DVOA vs #1 WR: 43.3%, 25th
DVOA vs #2 WR: 9.4%, 11th
DVOA vs Other WR: 3.1%, 13th
DVOA vs TE: 24.1%, 22nd
DVOA vs RB: 22.1%, 29th

The 2003 Houston Texans, like the 2002 squad, won it's first game of the year, shocking Miami at Dolphins/Joe Robbie/whatever stadium. This, combined with the additional win, gave the Texans a public perception of improvement, despite the fact that certain aspects of the team were falling apart.

Credit where credit is due: Zach Weigert quickly established himself as a very capable run blocking guard, bolstering the right side. Greg Randall was a terrible run blocker, but was adequate enough in pass protection to make this the best Texans season ever in terms of adjusted sack rate. Yep, 25th. Thats our highest finish as a franchise.

David Carr showed tremendous improvement, in that instead of looking like an overmatched college kid, he looked like an overmatched NFL quarterback. Stacey Mack was a bust as a free agent, but the emergence of Domanick Davis made it less painful, as he was a major Offensive ROY candidate, but eventually settling for Pepsi Rookie Of The Year (thank you Fantasy Football!). Andre Johnson was a productive wideout from day 1, easing the load on Gaffney. Billy Miller's amazing 2003 season was found out as a fluke as he shat the bed, changed the sheets, and shat on them again for good measure.

One thing that has always puzzled me about the Texans is their lack of faith in Derrick Armstrong as a wideout. He was their second best receiving option this year, and we'll come back to that point again and again.

While the offense, in general, got better, the defense had a rash of injuries. Seth Payne was lost for the year and that was a huge impact up the middle as teams ran all over Steve Martin, Junior Ioane, and the rest of the rag-tag cast of misfits the Texans were forced to run out. More than that, the loss of James Posey to the Bills really hurt the Texans laterally. They were horrendous at defending screens and horrendous at defending on sweep plays, and when you can't stop the run up the middle either, thats a sure recipe to keep the opponents on the field longer. Matt Stevens had thankfully been deposited in the nearest trash can, but Eric Brown was still around letting tight ends keep it wide open. Although he can't be blamed entirely, as the Texans have always seemed to play a LOT of zone defense to me. The rest of the secondary, led by Marcus Coleman's 7 interceptions, was once again top-heavy. Glenn seemed to decline, and the safeties were at best adequate. Marlon McCree was among them, and I'm sure Chargers fans now know why we didn't keep him.

The special teams, again the best part of the squad, was the main thing that carried them on to their close victories. Good punting and good field goal kicking kept them in games.

All these numbers are from Football Outsiders

(I've decided to seperate the offseason into it's own separate post from now on.)

I guess there are 3 memories for Texans fans now

If all it took for the Texans to be an NFL franchise was for me to start bitching about them, it looks like smooth sailing ahead; I've got a lot more bitching to do.

FC Preview: Colts @ Texans

I'd just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. I'm very excited about attending this game in person. Not because I have any delusions of the Texans winning, but because I'm intrigued by the idea that I can watch football without hearing about how it is our country.

Breakdown: The Houston Texans -- Beginnings of Crapulence

There are two good memories of being a Texans fan:
1) Franchise opening win over Quincy Carter and the Cowboys
2) The game Aaron Glenn single handedly defeated the Steelers @ Heinz by returning 2 INT's for touchdowns, signaling the beginning of the end for the Tommy Maddox era.

Other than that, it's been pure agony every Sunday. And thats even before getting into the fact that most of the fans around here are too busy talking about Vince Young is the next Steve McNair. The simple fact of the matter is that the Texans still don't know who is good and who isn't good on their team; they've yet to put together a supporting cast of average that can even help determine who is below or above.

I thought we as a blog could look over the entire franchise history, to glean a better understanding of what it takes to make a horrendous franchise right from the beginning. Sound like fun? No? Well, I have to watch this team every Sunday, so we're doing it anyway.

The Expansion Draft
Pick Player Position Team Salary Cap Hit
1 Tony Boselli OT Jaguars $6.89 million
2 Ryan Young OT Jets $563,000
3 Aaron Glenn CB Jets $8.01 million
4 Gary Walker DT Jaguars $5.25 million
5 Jamie Sharper LB Ravens $2.88 million
6 Jermaine Lewis WR Ravens $4.29 million
7 Marcus Coleman CB Jets $5.48 million
8 Seth Payne DT Jaguars $2.78 million
9 Matt Campbell OG Redskins $875,000
10 Matt Stevens S Patriots $565,000
11 Jeremy McKinney OG Browns $405,760
12 Ryan Schau OT Eagles $563,000
13 Charlie Rogers RB Seahawks $563,000
14 Sean McDermott TE Buccaneers $300,000
15 Jabari Issa DE Cardinals $397,000
16 Avion Black WR Bills $460,000
17 Danny Wuerffel QB Bears $556,000
18 Brian Allen LB Rams $452,000
19 Johnny Huggins TE Cowboys $300,000

1) Tony Boseli - Let me get my checklist out. Never played a game for the franchise, was a huge cap number for many years, brought false hope and kept us from drafting good tackles for the first couple of years of our existence. Yep, this guy is an asshole.

2) Ryan Young - I remember this guy being really good in Madden. He played in 2002, and was a key component of one of the worst offensive lines in football history. Not only was he easily beaten, not only did he commit a lot of false start penalties, but he led the Texans to rankings of 32nd and 29th of the 32 NFL teams on runs to the right tackle and runs to the right end, respectively. Was mercifully released, and retired after the 2003 season.

3) Aaron Glenn/Marcus Coleman - Putting these two together for posterity's sake. Were both great in 2002, but as was known when they were drafted, were on the downside of their careers. Glenn is by far the better of the two, and put together a solid season for the Cowboys last year. After these two left (or slipped, in Coleman's case), the Texans pass defense slipped with them:

2002: 17th
2003: 29th
2004: 18th
2005: 30th
2006: (so far) 30th

4) Gary Walker/Seth Payne - An injury prone front-line; when they were healthy, they were pretty solid, but they've rarely been healthy together. Walker was originally an Oiler, and was selected in two different expansion drafts. He made the Pro Bowl in 2002, and since then has only had one healthy season; 2004. He's since been released. Payne tore his ACL in 2003, and has been probably the best player on the Texans D-Line since, which is kind of like being the best talking head on Baseball Tonight. These two weren't so bad, but there was very little help around them.

5) Jamie Sharper - By far the best player on the Texans defense, but once again, was too old to be helpful forever, and was released after being hurt in the 2004 season. Led the NFL in tackles in 2003. Good player, good pick.

6) Matt Stevens - Not logically able to discuss this player except to say that one of the lasting memories of my Texans fanhood is a mental picture of Matt Stevens flailing onto the ground on a missed tackle.

7) Jermaine Lewis - Made a lot of money and was not very fast anymore at this point in his career. Did not score a single touchdown and was released after 2002.

Nobody else had any lasting impact except Danny Wuerffel, who continued to be a punchline for years to come, and was traded for Jerry DeLoach, who looks a lot like that generic fat black dude who ran the Burger Shack in Harold & Kumar and who plays football about as well as him. He's been with us for awhile now.

Granted it's hard to second guess an expansion draft, but Willie McGinest was unprotected, as was solid LT Roman Oben, who has managed to play a few years here and there while Tony Boselli has managed to eat a lot of things dipped in Aunt Jemima's syrup. Chris Chandler would've given the franchise a credible, if injury prone, backup/starter, which means he would've been dead by Week 3 of the 2002 season. Charlie Batch also would've been a credible backup.

2002 NFL Draft
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
Round 2
33 Houston Jabar Gaffney WR Florida
50 Houston Chester Pitts G San Diego State
Round 3
66 Houston Fred Weary G Tennessee
83 Houston Charles Hill NT Maryland
Round 4
99 Houston Jonathan Wells RB Ohio State
Round 5
136 Houston Jarrod Baxter FB New Mexico
153 Houston Ramon Walker SS Pittsburgh
Round 6
173 Houston Demarcus FagginsCB Kansas State
190 Houston Howard Green DT Louisiana State
Round 7
229 Houston Greg White DE Minnesota
261 Houston Ahmad Miller DT Nevada-Las Vegas

Ok, let me say before we start that I think that offensive line is the most important position on the football field, and I was fully in favor of drafting Bryant McKinnie and his sex boat as the #1 overall pick. That said, David Carr has provided alright return. He's not a great quarterback, he could be a good quarterback with the right personnel around him; kind of like Jake Plummer or Vinny Testaverde. He won't go down as a bust #1 overall pick. The weird thing is that all of the top picks in this draft besides Julius Peppers have been letdowns. Mike Williams was released, Quentin Jammer is horrendous, Joey Harrington is worse than Carr, Ryan Sims is a key member of the early 2000's Chiefs defense that kept them from winning a Super Bowl. When I look at this first round, I don't see it as that talented. Theres Peppers, John Henderson, Ed Reed, and Roy Williams. Levi Jones and McKinnie are both quality left tackles, Jeremy Shockey is a douchebag and okay tight end, and will always be remembered for this:



and Javon Walker is a decent #1 wideout. Nobody else in this first round really turned out to be all that great.

Jabar Gaffney had 1 big year as an average possession receiver and three as a replacement level receiver before he jumped to the Patriots and called us a second class organization. Have fun up there as a fifth wideout, Jabar!

Chester Pitts has matured from a terrible offensive tackle into a mediocre offensive guard. In his first year at Left Tackle, we were dead last on runs and he was beaten numerous times. He actually probably peaked in 2005, either way he's not a part of the problem anymore, just not part of the solution either.

Jonathan Wells had the worst DPAR of any running back in football in his first year in the league, at -23.0, and after a year of special teams, became Domanick Davis' backup back for the next 2 years and was credible if not outstanding. Overall, he was a good return for a fourth round pick. Clinton Portis became a Bronco.

DeMarcus Faggins is a credible dime/mediocre nickel back, and Ramon Walker was an okay special teams gunner and bad safety. Fred Weary is a bad guard, Charles Hill had 2 career tackles.

List of players that we missed out on in round 3: Will Witherspoon, Brian Westbrook, Chris Hope. Thank God for Charles Hill!

Coming up next week...the 2002 season and the 2003 offseason.

Reggie Bush v. Mario Williams: A standoff

I wouldn't get too used to that thing, Reg.

Mario Williams finally got his first sack this week. Sure, it was against a squalid Dolphins line that actually has allowed the most sacks in the NFL so far this year. He's not playing very well. I understand these things.

Across the Texas-Louisiana border, we have Reggie Bush and his standout message board. The Saints are 3-1, I'm very happy for them, their fans have been through a lot this year. They're a great story. Theres only one problem here: Reggie Bush hasn't actually played well yet either.

Every Texans game I've seen this year, we've been subjected to some discussion over this issue, and everyone is in a huge rush to anoint Mario as Sam Bowie. The problem is, with these dunderheads in charge of broadcasting these games not really doing any research (Bill Maas, anybody?), they just automatically assume that Reggie Bush is tearing up the NFL because the Saints are 3-1.

There's nobody who hated Charlie Casserley more than I did. I'm the kind of person who roots for Phillip Buchanon to tear his ACL every time he goes back to take a punt. And yes, the Texans should have traded down if they were going to select Williams, so as to secure some more assets. However, as of today, neither Williams nor Bush are playing well enough to warrant their lofty draft status.

Any way you cut it, Reggie Bush hasn't played well this year. He's not in the top 32 NFL players among rushing. Yes, he splits carries with Deuce McAllister--the same Deuce McAllister that is in the top 32. Laurence Maroney (294) and Joseph Addai (207) both have more rushing yards. He's not even the best rookie running back in his own division so far; that would be Jerious Norwood, who has 70 more yards than Bush on 19 less carries. Hell, even Maurice Drew (118 on only 20 carries) and Mike Bell (114 on only 27) aren't far behind Reggie's pathetic 145 yards in 45 carries. If Reggie is so great, why is he averaging .7 yards less per carry than McAllister, who wasn't really a franchise running back to begin with?

Now, to be fair, Reggie is leading the NFL in receptions and recieving yards by a running back. So yes, he can't be summed up purely by his running alone, but the thing is: This guy was supposed to be a can't miss talent, he was supposed to be special. Right now, assuming he starts rushing like a solid NFL back, he looks more like Brian Westbrook mk. II than Marshall Faulk mk. II.

As of today, Mario Williams has seven tackles, good for around sixty fifth among NFL linemen, in a big lumpy tie. He also has one and a half sacks, which is again, right around middle of the pack for NFL linemen. Then again, as usual with the Texans, it is hard to put context into these numbers. Williams is at least average, yes, but he's also been double-teamed from the get-go because the rest of the Texans defensive line is absolutely pathetic. As is most of the non-DeMeco Ryans defenders in general so far. Williams is also a key part in one of the worst defenses in the NFL, make no mistake about that. The problem is, unlike Bush and the skill position players, it's really impossible to tell how good Williams is without watching him every play.

What we have is a perceived talent gap based mainly on the teams individual records. Mario Williams may not end up better than Reggie Bush, but right now, Reggie Bush isn't even better than Laurence Maroney. Through four rounds, I'd say it's about a draw. A draw that is almost as ugly as actually watching the Texans play every week.