Don't you worry about Planet Express, let me worry about Blank.

Photo Credit AP-Rusty Kennedy

Jeff Van Gundy is out; Rick Adelman is in.

I know I'm the kind of guy who denigrates "clutchness" and "intangibles", but simply put, it seems to be an exchange of two style with two coaches who have never been able to take their team over the hump.

Rockets fans are excited for the end of the Van Gundy era. Nobody liked watching his boring grind-it-out 90's Knicks style of basketball. Adelman brings the stylistic change, but, as much as I hate to boil it down to one thing; Van Gundy and Adelman own a grand total of 0 rings. Van Gundy choked away a 2-0 lead in the first round each of the last two years, Adelman presided over two of the great small city dynasties of the past 20 years, the early 90's Blazers and the early 00's Kings, and could never lead them past Jordan or Shaq.

Van Gundy's career winning percentage is .575, Adelman's is .610. Van Gundy's playoff winning percentage is .506, Adelman's is .507.

How much of this is the coach and how much of it is the players? I have never seen the coach as all that important in terms of team success, at least at the professional level, where the most terrible coaches have obviously been weeded out. I think your main goal as a coach is to not to screw up, and I also believe that there are a few very special coaches that make things better. In the NBA I might limit that list to Phil Jackson, Larry Brown when he gave a damn, and maybe Popovich. I guess you can throw in youthful Pat Riley, although I wouldn't do that now.

Stylistically, Adelman has never run a team that finished out of the Top 10 in Pace Factor, a stat designed to show how many possessions per game a team averages. How he's able to integrate Yao into this system is going to be the key factor for success. McGrady and Battier can run, Alston and Head might actually become better players when they run (less time for them to carelessly turn the ball over), but for Yao it may be an adjustment as Van Gundy has always used him in the box, and he's had problems with fatigue in the past.

That said, we can talk about offensive philosophy all we want, but all the Rockets did was exchange one high-tenured adequate coach for another. It's not the worst thing in the world; we could have hired someone completely incompetent. But it's not news that really matters.

Now we've beaten the Jazz

Shit wait, no we didn't.

But let it not be said that this was a fluke or something, the Jazz thoroughly outplayed the Rockets on every level. They were the better team by far from Game Three on, and won four of those five games, deservingly. They also probably should have won Game Five.

So, how do the Rockets fix the problems with this team? The obituaries came out on Sunday, and they seem to have a few things in common.

Steve Kerr's column on the issue is pretty well-written, although I'm pretty sick of Simmons and Kerr going to the well with the "watered down" league bullshit. The reason there was no legitimate MVP candidate this year is that none of the best players had outstanding seasons. The reason the Rockets won 52 games is that they had two of the best players in basketball and they used these to beat up on weaker teams. While the Rockets finished with a better record than the Jazz, they were only 28-24 against Western Conference opposition, equivalent to the lower seeds in the West. The Jazz were 32-20, a full four games better.

Kerr's piece is also filled with annoying stuff about "pit bulls" like Shane Battier. Shane Battier is a good basketball player, thats why he's a rarity on the Rockets. They don't need pit bulls to win, they need players that can shoot. I definitely agree that the Rockets need players that can break a zone down and penetrate. But Baron Davis is a dominant player in the league right now? I love the Warriors, but Davis had 6 amazing games against a team with poor perimeter defenseman, he didn't morph into Magic Johnson overnight.

Richard Justice made a neat portrait piece, offering up the correct problem but forgetting the solution. Here are some solutions.

The Van Gundy scenario: I'd get rid of him. I don't think that he's a bad coach, but he hasn't gotten us over the hump. Frankly, he plays boring basketball too, which is one of my biggest peeves in the game for a team so good. When you are a good team, would you want more possessions or less possessions? More possessions mean less of a chance of a fluke loss on spectacular shooting. The Rockets, despite the Yao Ming concerns about stamina, would be much better off playing at least an average pace, if not higher.

The supporting cast: The Rockets have little to offer but the mid-level exception again this year. This time, their entire focus should be on the backcourt. Namely, a combo guard or a point guard who can penetrate and score. The only free agents the Rockets lose of any merit are Chuck Hayes, who we can match and probably will on. And Dikembe, who I feel will probably hang it up.

Some players who I think would be good fits:
1) Earl Boykins, Milwaukee. He has a player option that I doubt he'll take. I'm not sure if he's worth the whole mid-level exception, but he can create his own shot, and he's got amazing speed, which is an asset whether the Rockets are up-tempo or Van Gundy-ized. Also, pictures of Yao Ming and Earl Boykins together would be amazing.

2) Matt Carroll, Charlotte. Less optimistic on this one, because I believe the Bobcats can match and would probably be obligated to, but Carroll would bring shooting, he can create his own shot, and he probably wouldn't be extraordinarily expensive.

3) James Posey, Miami. I don't really believe he's a good shooter. I just love James Posey. Plus he'd give us a third real perimeter defender.

When Fran Blinebury isn't busy tearing T-Mac a new T-Hole for no real reason, he suggested Grant Hill. Thats the kind of stability I want on the team: a guy who can't stay healthy. We already have Bob Sura.

I'll look into the draft next time I come back to this franchise. Which will probably not be for awhile.

Jazz Fans,

This linked on Deadspin piece gave me the giggles. Not just this piece, but the blog in general.

There is no way that Houston is a better team than the Jazz.

Um, you do realize that if Carlos Boozer didn't play like Kobe last night, you'd have been blown off the floor by a team that shot 36% from the field, right? Maybe in the regular season, you'd have an argument. Right now though, the only Jazz players who are playing well are Boozer, Harpring, and Williams.

3) Let the broken record play on — Derek Fisher can’t guard Tracy McGrady. Giricek does a far better job defensively, and has a decent offensive repertoire as well.

News Flash: Nobody can guard Tracy McGrady when he drives to the paint. He is very talented, but more importantly, he is a "superstar". As such, he is entitled by dumb NBA refs to get a plurality of foul calls against people like Gordan Giricek. You aren't going to hold McGrady down one-on-one and you aren't going to hold Yao down one-on-one either. Now, if you want to shift the series, heres what you do: Let Rafer Alston shoot uncontested threes. It will work.

4) Memo needs to shoot more, especially at home. I don’t care if he’s had a horrible first two games. He WILL start making those shots.

Honestly, I don't believe this. I think the Jazz are having him play such rough defense on Yao that it's sapping all his energy. He's looked tired. Not saying it can't happen. Just, you know, doesn't seem so likely to me.

I'm also a bit confused by the anger they have over Sloan, yet they still want him to win coach of the year? I wouldn't play Kirilenko the way he's been playing him, and I wouldn't bench Ronnie Brewer either, but NBA Coaches make lots of dumb moves in my opinion. Take for instance, starting Rafer Alston even though he's a complete liability on offense.

Rafer Alston Revisited

I offer up few excuses for my lack of involvement with the Rockets in these blogs, mainly because I have a big problem: despite living in Houston, I can't watch any of the games at my dorm because of some stupid DirecTV ordinance. I can watch the Game Show Network, or I can watch former Dream Job winner Mike Hall and Blue Edwards talk about college wrestling on ESPNU, but I can't get the home games from one of the three most important sports leagues in America. Go figure.

Anyway, since I last mulled over why Rafer Alston exists, not a lot has changed. The Rockets are a solid 5 seed, probably locked into playing the Jazz in the first round at this point, especially after the buttkicking the Spurs laid on them last night. The Rockets lead the NBA in defensive efficiency at 100.7 points per 100 possessions. However, they are only 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 107.4 points per 100 possessions.

Part of that number is just, in general, being without Yao (52.2% FG percentage) for a majority of the year. Yet, the center position is still doing pretty well offensively, as Dikembe is shooting 56% from the field and Chuck Hayes is shooting 53.6%. In fact, every Rocket who averages more than 24 minutes per game is shooting over 42%. All but one, that is; Rafer Alston is on the court more than anyone but McGrady and is shooting a pathetic 37.3%.

Here is a brief run-down of Rafer's "contributions" to the Rockets.

POSITIVES
-Has one of the lowest turnover ratios in the game (10.3-125th)
-You can't say that he's a bad defender. He's not good at it either, though.
-Occasionally only misses 8 shots a game instead of 11.
-Having a nickname like Skip prepares you for when he does stupid things.

NEGATIVES
-Horrible eFG%, (46.2, 158th), yet mind-bogglingly averages 13 shots per game in one of the slowest offenses in basketball.
-Has a horrible free throw percentage (70.2%-137rd, worst among any point guard in the entire game), thankfully we never get to see his stroke because he ranks 180th in basketball at free throws/field goal attempts, at 12.
-Pure point rating, a stat made up to replace assist/turnover ratio, has Rafer at 27th amongst point guards
-Assist ratio, meant to demonstrate how good of a passer someone is, has him 39th. Behind Brad Miller. He doesn't even lead his own team in assists. McGrady does.
-Rebound rate of 5.1 is low, even for a guard.

Despite this, he has defenders. Message board defenders. I'm an advocate of stats, and advanced stats especially. But it just doesn't pass the smell test for me. Yeah, we have averaged 5.8 more points per 100 when he is on the floor. So what? Look at the situation Rafer is in.

1) Only real point guard on the team (Neither Luther Head or John Lucas are real point guards, and nobody can tell if Spanoulis is because he never plays)
2) Plays with McGrady and Yao in a slow-down offense, so most of the shots that he is "creating" are isolation and post plays.
3) Despite 2, is so bad at wide-open shots that he shoots 37% from the field.

How will the Rockets advance in the playoffs when teams figure out that the best strategy to beating them is double teaming Yao and McGrady whenever they touch the ball with Alston's man? They won't.

What can they do about this? Nothing, anymore. The trade deadline already passed, and Mike James isn't appreciably better anyway. Chucky Atkins would've been a good pickup. Instead, we have a flawed team that will play tough defense and fail to score more than 80 points against any team with a similarly good team.

It's even too late to sign Will Conroy, NBDL assist leader, to a 10-day contract.

I think the only chance the Rockets have against a Dallas or Phoenix is to start Luther Head, make it a slow-down game, and hope D'Antoni or Avery Johnson have a cerebral hemorrhage and forget that they can pressure the ball. I'm not counting on these things happening.

Rockets 107, Warriors 109

(Prenote: I had just always wanted a serious column to have WTF in it's title. I'll always be a kid at heart. A Toys R Us kid.)

The Rockets blew yet another fourth quarter lead, with Baron Davis knocking down a huge three-pointer/prayer to win the game. Offtopic: Doesn't it seem like Baron Davis has been hitting these kinds of shots for years? Maybe it's just the highlight era of SportsCenter, but Baron has hit as many of those prayer 3's than anyone I've ever seen with the possible exception of McGrady.

Four Factors for this game:
HOU:
41% from the field, 37% from 3, 16-19 FT, 18 offensive/53 total rebounds (what kept them in the game), 20 turnovers
GSW:
47% from the field, 28% from 3, 27-35 FT (big winner), 6 offensive/33 total rebounds, 15 turnovers

Thoughts:
-The biggest downfall for the Rockets lately has been their tendency to shoot jumpers. In their last four games, they've lost the free throw battle four times and tied it once, and have gone 2-3 in those games. In the two games that McGrady has missed, the Rockets have been outshot at the line to the tune of 37 to 67, which has been the key factor in costing them two very close games. Other than Yao, the only Rocket who played in this game that has averaged more than two free throws a game is Alston, and as established before, he's so poor at that in comparison to most of his contemporaries that it's pathetic. During the last couple of minutes, he actually penetrated the lane and found the shot so unappealing that he dished it off to a partially guarded Head (who made the shot, but the point stands that only a super tentative player would pass up that lane).

Kirk Snyder, acquired from the Hornets before the season, was shooting a respectable 6 FT per 40 before he got hurt. His loss has hurt the Rockets a lot more than expected. Spanoulis has stepped in and, while able to create for himself, has proven very turnover prone; also, his 4.2 FT per 40 is still among the best on the team.

I guess the key thing to point out here is that losing T-Mac isn't only horrendous for us on a pure scoring perspective; the Rockets are a team of jump shooters that need to be created for. While Yao will draw doubles, he can't penetrate and actually take another defender out of the play with him like McGrady can.

-Yao had 38 points and 18 rebounds, Bill Worrell lauded MVP praise on him, and up until Davis' three, it looked like he was set up to get some national attention. Heres all you need to know about the Rockets without Yao: Yao was substituted at the 3:30 mark in the first quarter with the Rockets trailing 13-15, when he came back in with 0:26 left, it was 19-25. Yao was substituted for at the 3:30 mark in the third quarter with the Rockets up 71-59. When he came back in at 0:20 in the third, it was 78-73. That's a net -11 points in just the 6 minutes he missed.

-Bonzi Wells is not ready to play basketball, as his 0.26 PER indicates.

-Chuck Hayes is a chip right off the Charles Oakley block, right down to the boring basketball his team employs. The only problem is, he's so bad at picking plays to not go after the shooter that he can't stay on the court. This is problem for the Rockets because when he does get in foul trouble, they lose a LOT. He's a net +124 by Basketball Value's ratings, meaning that when he plays we are +124 points. I know that Rafer Alston is the same way, but he actually plays a lot of minutes with Yao so I find his numbers a little bit harder to believe.

-If any team in basketball needs Allen Iverson right now, it's the Rockets. Combine this with their win now attitude (Is it too late to get Rudy Gay back?), and I would just throw the house at Billy King (he is Billy King, after all). Iverson and McGrady both have 2 years left on their contracts, and after that, they can both be tossed asides to rebuild around the end of Yao's prime. The only problem is, thanks to the NBA cap, it's basically impossible to acquire him.

The fairest trade I could come up with in the generator was Howard, Battier, Spanoulis, Snyder, Sura, and 2 1st rounders for Iverson and Iguodala. It's nice to dream.

T-Mac's back and the lack of correct blame

Without Tracy McGrady for how many ever games, for a second straight season, it seems logical to posit that the Rockets problems will stem from such a star player. However, McGrady wasn't playing that well anyway. In fact, the Rockets this year have been carried by Yao Ming, as we went over last time. This time, I want to look at a few columns and spend about thirty minutes trashing Rafer Alston, who is without a doubt the worst point guard the Rockets have started since Matt Maloney.

Lets talk about Rafer first, (aka Skip To My Lou, Reefer, or whatever hackneyed nickname they have for him now) and lets focus on his shooting first, which at best can be described as execrable, and at worst can be described as Bowen-esque. The white one.

Scoop Jackson point.

In one sentence paragraphs.

Out9 of every qualifying point guard in the league, Rafer Alston's field goal percentage this year, is 24th out of 25. He's shooting 37% from the field. The only player worse than that is Mike Bibby, who has been playing with a badly injured thumb all year and probably actually takes contested shots. On the Rockets, there is Yao Ming, and there is Tracy McGrady. If one of these players do not shoot the ball, then you're looking at probably 4:3 odds that said other player taking the shot is wide open.

Then you have to factor in that with Rafer, most of these are wide open three-pointers. A good indication of how aggressive a player is going to the basket is his free throw attempts per game. Of the 36 qualified players, Rafer ranks 33rd, sandwiched between stars like Keyon Dooling and Mo Williams. Then, when he actually does get to the line? 34th of the 36 in converting the free throws, ahead of only Jameer Nelson and Bobby Jackson, at a pathetic 71.7%.

Well, what about turnovers? Surely if he is an innocent bystander in the offense at best, and at worst a massive drain of shots that could go to people who are actually good, he is at least good at keeping the ball, right? Well, of the 49 qualified NBA point guards for this (how are the requirements so different, anyway?), we learn that he does do a good job at this. Finally. His 2.6 are 9th best out of the 48. Of course, the list of players near him are a who's who of sterling players like Steve Blake and former Rocket Tampon Lue, so maybe he should be willing to be more aggressive in exchange for, I dunno, hitting more than 3 shots out of 11 a game? And to further this point, you would expect a player not hitting all these shots to be good at passing the ball. Rafer's assist ratio is only a mediocre 25-ish (in a category where the best are hitting 40), and his raw stats say he is down to only 4.8 assists per game. In an offense with McGrady and Yao. Granted it's an isolation offense, but that number is pathetic.

Defensive value is hard to judge, but it's safe to say that Alston has never been regarded as one of the best defensive players in basketball. He's from the fucking streetball team for christs sake. However, I will give him some pity props and say that he appears to be a good team defender in zones, and can occasionally swipe a pass or two (Almost 2 per 48 minutes, about 12th). One-on-one, he continues to be helplessly abused by any star. For instance, Saturday when Gilbert Arenas got him in foul trouble early.

So, McGrady went down with back spasms, and the Rockets could have been better prepared for this by not ever trading Mike James for Rafer Alston. Lets see how the local sports media is taking it.



Haha, basketball? Surely, you're kidding. Why cover the only team in this city to win a fucking title when we can explore the overlooked Mario Williams angle? Oh, and the one guy who talked about Andy Pettitte.

Oh wait, heres one Fran Blinebury, the basketball columnist! He can save us and tell us how the Rockets will compensate!

The burden the Rockets are facing is possibly carrying that $15 million a year contract into the forseeable for a player who cannot be who he once was (see: Jeff Bagwell).

These are questions that some us asked long before the latest injury, so it is not hindsight. On Aug. 13, I posted a blog entry that said maybe the Rockets should consider trading a fragile T-Mac game for a player such as Allen Iverson, who is constantly slammed to the floor but always seems to get back up.

Iverson is currently on the trading block in Philly. Think the Sixers would take T-Mac and his contract for him now? Uh-uh.

Wait, my mistake. Just another asshole tooting his own horn. Whooa I predicted a player with a back injury would keep getting hurt! Buy me a fucking medal and let me cross the Delaware on my swan boat of triumph so you can paint a picture of me, for surely there is not tons of medical data that would ever suggest that something as pathetic as a bad back could flare up in the future!

Ok, ok, lets look at John Feigen. Feigen is probably the best sportswriter in the whole paper.

The Rockets seem better equipped to compete without McGrady this season than last, when they went 7-28 without him. They are stronger defensively and with more shooters to respond should teams send two or three players at Yao.

Feigy, I just spent a sentence giving you some love and you have to pull this on me. Shane Battier is a good shooter only because he takes open shots, not the other way around.

The Rockets also have improved at getting Yao the ball. Yao has improved at getting better position, often by re-posting. Rafer Alston and Luther Head are better at feeding him the ball deep. Battier is strong at getting the ball inside, as he did on Yao's last bucket Saturday.

Yes, of all the difficult attributes of being an NBA player, I'm sure that fucking lobbing a ball up to a man that is seven foot six is the hardest. You know, I'm going to fail a final because of writing this, but it's okay because I have improved greatly at brushing my teeth.

Here, let me give you some help kids. Luther Head is going to shoot more, thats a good thing. Rafer Alston is going to shoot more, that is not.

One final thing I want to address, just because it made me roll my eyes in shame.



Who is most to blame for the stunningly poor cause and effect displayed in this poll question?
-Richard Justice's mother - did a poor job of helping him through various stages of rejection.
-John McClain's chef - forgot that John only likes honeybaked ham. HE HATES REGULAR.
-David Carr - It's his fault our defense has three good players
-David Carr - It's his fault that his offensive lines are as good at pass blocking as Reggie Bush is at running
-Vince Young - should've been born four years earlier so his natural leadership could get sacked 80 times a year for us
-i haet this site

Random blogging about hoops so far

Okay, lets get the biased team out of the way first:

The Rockets continue to play bland and uninspiring basketball, mainly because of Jeff Van Gundy's Marty Schottenheimer-esque "attack". The Rockets have been 8th in Offensive Efficiency and 11th in Defensive EFficiency (but don't tell that to the writers! No, no! The Rockets problem is all offense! Walking the ball up court makes your defense better!). Another huge problem is their penchant for blowing early leads against good teams, as the Rockets squandered an 18 point lead against the Spurs in the third quarter and then almost did the same to the Bulls, narrowly holding on for a 1 point win.

Who are your culprits on this team? Basically everyone but Yao (who is 2nd in PER so far this year at 28.24, to only LeBron). McGrady has started to turn the corner, but he is shooting like Allen Iverson at practice, at only 41% from the floor despite plenty of open looks. Speaking of poor shooting, Rafer Alston has been an absolute abomination on this team asides from his near-triple double against the Mavericks. He's shooting poorly, settling for too many threes, and most importantly, he hasn't had a game with more than 6 assists since November 8th.

Injuries have also been key, as Chuck Hayes, Bonzi Wells, and now Kirk Snyder look to be out for awhile longer. This leads to ideas like "Scott Padgett playing more than 6 minutes", which is really horrific to watch.

Anyway, while I'm discouraged by the Rockets effort up to this point, at least they are winning, and at least they are doing well enough to make me think about what could be if they actually get healthy and McGrady stops shooting so poorly.

-Probably the most significant impact by a rookie has been felt in Portland; not by Brandon Roy, but by fellow first rounder LaMarcus Aldridge, owner of a 25.05 PER and a 69.7 expected Field Goal %. While Blazers coach Nate McMillian tries hard to make Martell Webster play real basketball, he has ignored Aldridge to his detriment, meaning the Blazers could actually be over .500 if he was giving him regular time. Zach Randolph and Jarrett Jack have both turned into players, and with Roy recovering from his injury and the Blazers hopefully giving Aldridge more playing time, don't be surprised if the Blazers make a run at the 7th or 8th seed in the West.

-The Chicago Bulls, recepients of the "Offseason Champs" award, have played terrific defense this year. The reason they are 3-7 is because they have no alpha dog who will get you 20 points a night. They are also pretty turnover prone and most importantly, have the worst free throw rate of any offensive team in the NBA. You have to wonder if the Ben Wallace signing was a quality addition to a team that already played good defense; it worked for the Pistons, but the Pistons also surrounded him with three quality offensive players and Tayshaun Prince, who developed into a reliable enough threat when left open. The Bulls have only a few players with the potential to be a great offensive player: Luol Deng and Ben Gordon. Either one of those two have to step up, or the Bulls have to find a package that will work for Kevin Garnett.

-I'm not ready to talk about the Jazz yet. I want to see how real this improvement from Deron Williams is, if it will last more than a few games. I was ready to write him off as a complete bust after Chris Paul whooped his tail last year, but all of the sudden he is playing like a terrific point guard. How he holds up will probably determine how far the Jazz go.