Profiles in GM'ing: Wayne Krivsky (part 2)

We've already explored the intimate nature behind Wayne Krivsky and Timo Perez, but we also ran into some paradoxically good moves that he made by going the opposite way, such as the Brandon Phillips and Dave Ross moves. Perhaps looking at the standings will help us further understand Krivsky's transactions.

The Fodder
April 14, 2006 - Released Jacob Cruz, Released Frank Menechino, Signed Mike Venafro as a free agent.
April 21, 2006 - Sold Timo Perez to the St. Louis Cardinals.
May 2, 2006 - Released Tony Womack.
May 5, 2006 - Released Terrence Long.
May 30, 2006 - Traded Kyle Edens (minors) to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Esteban Yan and cash.
June 1, 2006 - Released Darrell May.
July 14, 2006 - Released Quinton McCracken.
July 17, 2006 - Released Mike Venafro.
July 24, 2006 - Released Esteban Yan.

Tony Womack - A holdover from the Dan O'Brien administration, Womack was acquired from the Yankees for non-prospects. The Phillips signing made him largely worthless (okay, moreso), as he got off to such a huge start (.349/.382/.587) in April that Womack received little playing time. This was a boon for the Reds.

Jacob Cruz - Consistently solid for a pinch-hitter prior to 2006, was removed because he wasn't Quinton McCracken and had never appeared in the playoffs. Picked up by the Mets late in the season and probably would've been better than Ricky Ledee was.

Mike Venafro - A bit of a head-scratcher how he got no work for the Reds, as he had a 2.45 ERA in 22 Louisville innings and a 2.20 ERA in 20 Colorado Springs appearances before putting up a similar 2.45 ERA for the Rockies. Oh wait, all the spaces for Venafro were taken by "sexier" options that Krivsky had to trade for, forgot about that. Anyways, he's a spring training Met this year and if we go to two lefties, I'll always have a spot in my heart for anyone who loses his AIM name in an hacked AP Press Release (mrven1)

Esteban Yan - Had a 3.6 ERA for the Reds in limited time, after getting bombed for the Angels. Was released after it became apparent that Gary Majewski was much better and was healthy.

Rick White - Defensible move, White was getting murdered (6.26 ERA), but rebounded slightly for the Pirates (albeit with worse peripherals, 4.34 ERA with 15 walks to 23 K's)

Slightly More Important. Slightly.
April 24, 2006 - Traded a player to be named later to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Cody Ross. The Cincinnati Reds sent Ben Kozlowski (June 1, 2006) to the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete the trade.
May 19, 2006 - Signed Joe Mays as a free agent.
May 25, 2006 - Traded Dave Williams and cash to the New York Mets. Received Robert Manuel (minors).
May 26, 2006 - Sold Cody Ross to the Florida Marlins.

The Cody Ross saga is here just because I'd like to point out that the Florida Marlins bought someone. Really. Considering Ross' stellar triple A record (.273/.328/.538 in 2004, .267/.348/.509 in 2005) and his penchant for the strikeout (78 in only 313 MLB AB's), his upside is probably that of defensively challenged fifth outfielder. Kozlowski hasn't been anywhere near as good a prospect as he was before Tommy John in 2003, making him one of the few victims of it. He dominated AA hitters last year (2.85 ERA in 60 innings for Jacksonville, 1.17 in 23 innings for Chattanooga), but was unable to take those to AAA, where he had two stints of double digit ERA's. This will probably be his last year to establish himself as some kind of relief status before he takes up residency at the Can-Am League or Wal-Mart with Matt Harrington.

Dave Williams had quite a few quality starts for the Mets down the stretch despite a high ERA. He's being groomed for the Darren Oliver long lefty relief role this year.

Joe Mays non-2002 big league ERA is 5.62 in 763 innings. I'll let that speak for itself.

"Fixing" The Team
June 15, 2006 - Traded Brandon Roberts (minors) to the Minnesota Twins. Received Juan Castro.
July 6, 2006 - Traded Travis Chick to the Seattle Mariners. Received Eddie Guardado and cash.
July 13, 2006 - Traded Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner to the Washington Nationals. Received Gary Majewski, Royce Clayton, Bill Bray, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson (minors).
July 14, 2006 - Selected Brandon Watson off waivers from the Washington Nationals.
July 31, 2006 - Traded Zach Ward (minors) to the Minnesota Twins. Received Kyle Lohse. Traded Justin Germano to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Rheal Cormier.
August 7, 2006 - Traded a player to be named later to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Ryan Franklin and cash. The Cincinnati Reds sent Zac Stott (minors) (August 8, 2006) to the Philadelphia Phillies to complete the trade.
August 8, 2006 - Traded PTBNL to the Cleveland Indians. Received Todd Hollandsworth.
August 16, 2006 - Traded cash to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Scott Schoeneweis.
August 28, 2006 - Traded Mike Burns to the Boston Red Sox. Received Tim Bausher (minors) and cash.
August 30, 2006 - Signed Jason Johnson as a free agent.
September 5, 2006 - Traded Future Considerations to the Colorado Rockies. Received Sun-Woo Kim and cash.

I for one, am glad to be on the Colorado Rockies. I never liked Krivsky's harsh attitude towards caffeine. He said it was a performance enhancer and wouldn't permit us at FC to drink it. He forced us all to drink orange juice. Dan O'Dowd lets us drink Sprite. Good man, that Dan O'Dowd.

Anyway, we come up with a new characteristic for Krivsky here; he loves ex-Twins. Of the trades for ex-Twins, all of them ended up being moderately successful. Lohse ended up being his third-best starter down the stretch, while Guardado had a 1.29 ERA in 15 innings before having to undergo Tommy John surgery. Juan Castro, hit out of his mind (for him), with a .284/.320/.421 line for the Reds, but had clearly lost a step defensively.

I already covered the Kearns debacle here, so I won't repeat myself.

After the Kearns trade though, Krivsky just had to keep digging at it. He got Scott Schoeneweis, who was apparently government payback on the Canadian soil for losing Carol Shields. Schoeneweis turned it around for the Reds, but still had an ugly 1.4 WHIP. Cormier is aging, but was easily the best reliever for the Reds last year, even despite his ERA raising from the 1.59 it was with the Phillies. The Phillies, by the way, finished 2 games out of the Wild Card. Good work, Pat Gillick. Also, thanks for thinking Wes Helms is going to protect Ryan Howard. Todd Hollandsworth can tell us the price of Dutch goods and once won Rookie Of The Year. Ryan Franklin is a completely disposable left-hander who follows the Joe Mays path (2003: 3.57 ERA in 212 innings) of being allowed many second chances to discover past glory.

Of the many non-prospects surrendered, only Travis Chick appeared in the majors this year, and he got pounded just as his peripherals at AA would suggest (37 walks, 44 strikeouts in 67 innings).

One thing I want to bring up here that you can't cover in trades; Krivsky's caution with top prospect Homer Bailey may have cost his team the playoffs. The black hole that was his back 3 slots of the rotation could have possibly be patched by a man with such credentials.

What we can learn about Wayne Krivsky's first year at the helm
-He protects his actual prospects
-Brandon Phillips pickup was shrewd
-He loves to acquire ex-Twins and players with playoff experience
-Spent way too much time trying to fix bullpen holes last year, and was swindled pretty terribly in the Kearns trade.
-Other than Kearns trade, has very much fit the typical cautious GM prototype. Few Bold Moves (TM Ford) and very little straying from "conventional" 1970's baseball guy wisdom.

You can see the moves this offseason following into these ideals too. The Alex Gonzalez signing (too much money, but a good shortstop glove with playoff experience), Jeff Conine trade (playoffs), Mike Stanton trade (playoffs), and David Weathers re-signing all show the same pattern.

The Reds face many interesting dilemmas this season, foremost what to do about Adam Dunn, who seems to be everything they hate. But with a full year of Edwin Encarnacion, a similarly weak NL Central, and hopefully some Homer Bailey innings, the Reds have a chance to make the playoffs next year with or without competent GM'ing. It'd just really help if Krivsky could see the forest for the trees when it comes to playoff experience over actual talent.

Profiles In GM'ing: Wayne Krivsky (part 1)

Wayne Krivsky was named Cincinnati Reds GM on February 8th, 2006. It hasn't even been a year yet, and he has already managed to acclimate himself with a reputation as one of the worst general managers in the game. Everyone knows about his horrendous big move, but to fully evaluate how bad of a GM Wayne Krivsky is, we need to reach into the most minute moves.

This part will be about the preseason, later we will cover the in-season moves. Then the offseason of 2006-2007. First, lets focus on the good he did.

March 20, 2006 - Traded Wily Mo Pena to the Boston Red Sox. Received Bronson Arroyo.
March 21, 2006 - Traded Bobby Basham (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Dave Ross.
April 7, 2006 - Traded a player to be named later to the Cleveland Indians. Received Brandon Phillips. The Cincinnati Reds sent Jeff Stevens (minors) (June 13, 2006) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

Few, if anyone, expected these three trades to come out as well as they did for Krivsky. Perhaps he had a magic touch, or perhaps he was lucky, but you can't take away the fact that all three of these moves were an immense help to the Reds. Brandon Phillips didn't even hit as well as he did last year in the triple A in 2005. The talent had always been there, as evidenced by Phillips' multiple appearances in multiple prospect rankings from 2002-2004. Maybe it was the fresh start he needed, or maybe it was a massive fluke and he's coming back to earth. It's too soon to tell.

David Ross, on the other hand, was universally regarded as an average-ish catcher (well, not universally; many people just didn't care) with some pop. He turned around and put up 21 homers and a 126 OPS+ in 247 AB's (why was he on the bench this much anyway?).

Bronson Arroyo, while being pumped in our face all year because he used to be a Red Sox player (one of the two teams in baseball), put up a pretty stellar year. He had a 146 ERA+, pitched more innings than anyone in the NL, and regained his strikeout rate that he had bobbled a bit in 2005.

Meanwhile the guys he gave up still have a little promise. Bobby Basham was busy being injured and only pitched in 2 games for Mobile this year, but Jeff Stevens was pretty okay in limited innings (4.4 ERA, but 43 K's in 42 innings for single A Dayton.) Pena is sort of an enigma at this point, because he has the bat to contribute (112 OPS+ in 276 AB's) , but wasn't given a lot of at-bats this year and does strike out a lot and he isn't a sterling defender. A second trade might be in order to find somewhere where he can play, and might I suggest beautiful Flushing? I think a Heilman/Pena trade would be mutually beneficial for both sides provided the Mets miss out on Zito and use Milledge to deal for a starter.


As for the bad, well...heres an auspicious start for you:
February 10th, 2006: Cincinnati Reds sign OF Timo Perez to a minor-league deal
February 14th, 2006: Cincinnati Reds sign OF Quinton McCracken to a minor-league deal

Well lets see, Timo Perez has been a bad 6th outfielder/minor league fodder for years. Rather than take a chance on someone new and unestablished, Krivsky opted for blandness. This is to become a defining characteristic of his GM-ing skills.

Then, apparently unsatisfied with his depth in terrible outfielders, he went out and got Quinton McCracken. Whenever I think of Quinton McCracken, I think of Ken Griffey Jr's Slugfest, where he was okay for some reason. However, doing research on these guys shows me a lot. Namely, the fact that Quinton McCracken went to Duke University. As if you needed more reasons to hate him!

Also, heres one other thing you'll learn about Krivsky: The guys he is acquiring have playoff at-bats. McCracken had 11 good at-bats with the Snakes against the Cardinals in 2002, and Timo Perez is a fuckface who can't be bothered to run home on Todd Zeile doubles.

Net value these two contributed: Perez was released and picked up by the Cardinals. Quinton McCracken added 53 at-bats of 45 OPS+ hitting.

February 19, 2006: Signed Karl Rhodes as a free agent.
March 19, 2006: Released Karl Rhodes.

Whew, that was close. Can't be having those 450 homer Japanese League players getting a shot over the likes of Quinton McCracken.

March 9, 2006: Released Luke Hudson.
Hudson wound up playing for the Royals last year, putting up a 5.12 ERA (95 ERA+) in 15 starts in a superior league (including no breaks, as he didn't get to pitch against the Royals). Heres a list of players who started more than one game for the Reds in 2006 that weren't Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang:

Matt Belisle, 2 starts, (ERA+ is for full year), 0.80 ERA as starter (sleeper if you're in an NL only league next year, and he only got to start at the end of the year when it became apparent that everyone else was shit.)
Kyle Lohse, 15 starts, 105 ERA+, 4.57 ERA
Chris Michalak, 6 starts, 95 ERA+, 4.89 ERA
Eric Milton, 26 starts, 93 ERA+, 5.19 ERA
Elizardo Ramirez, 19 starts, 90 ERA+, 5.37 ERA
Brandon Claussen, 14 starts, 78 ERA+, 6.19 ERA
Dave Williams, 8 starts, 77 ERA+, 7.20 ERA
Joe Mays, 4 starts, 66 ERA+, 7.33 ERA

Yeah, would've hated to have Hudson around to break up that murderers row.

Other pre-season signings:
Alex Sanchez - Noted steroid user put up a .492 OPS last year. In Triple A. Doesn't seem to fit any pattern of Krivsky's, although it does betray his weakness for people with reputation of a good glove.
Terrence Long - Lasted a month in Louisville before comically showing up in Yankee Stadium for a few games. Once again, another weak fifth outfielder candidate with playoff experience.
Darrell May - Started 8 games for Louisville last year, was released despite having a 3.86 ERA.

The 2006 Cincinnati Reds: A Tribute Post

In this time of the year where we usually start breaking down who deserved what and who will win in the baseball postseason, I'd like to extend a heartfelt thank you to the Cincinnati Reds for making this season such a joy to behold.

The Reds rode an 18-8 April and 7 straight wins to begin June, and turned them into a ride that saw them playing meaningful baseball 160 games into the season. The bulk of the Reds problems were projected onto the widely derided Austin Kearns deal, which replaced everyday solid offensive contributors Kearns (.274/.351/.492), and Felipe Lopez (.268/.356/.394) with Royce Clayton (.236/.292/.331 with highly overrated defense) and Chris Denorfia (.283/.355/.364 before getting replaced by Todd Hollandsworth). With Majewski injured almost immediately after coming over (and Wayne Krivsky pissed, leading to one of the more bizarre sagas in baseball this year), the only real benefit from the trade was left-handed reliever Bill Bray, who put up a 4.23 ERA out in the pen over 27 2/3rds innings. The fact that no real help came from the trade really underlines how foolish it was, because the trade was really made due to a hiccup in the Reds bullpen. From June 27 to the All-Star Break, the Reds went 4-10, with three of those wins coming against the Royals; of the losses, five of them were charged to the bullpen, including four of five games from July 2-6th.

Krivsky’s move was no doubt a panic move, nevertheless, it seemed to right the ship. The Reds won their first four games after the trade, suggesting that maybe everyone who criticized the trade should take a step back; they even got out of the rest of July following that streak with a .500 record. They made it down to the wire going only three games under .500 in August and exactly .500 in September. The bullpen pitched adequately down the stretch, losing only eight games the rest of the year (and three of those were by Majewski and Bray). However, the damage had already been done.

Todd Coffey was off to a phenomenal start for the Reds, putting up a 0.6 ERA in April and a 1.8 ERA in May. However, either by injuries, fatigue, or better scouting reports, he stopped striking people out. He struck out only 32 and walked 18 in 45 innings after May, which led to monthly ERA’s of 5.84, 5.59, 5.79, and 2.7 (2-8 bb/k). You certainly can see the Reds motivation towards bolstering their bullpen, but the fact that they gave up so much to get it done in that deal, as opposed to the Eddie Guardado deal, which cost them only Travis Chick, is a bit of a head-scratcher.

But this post isn’t a eulogy, this post is a celebration. This post is about Rich Aurilia, who hit more homers than Scott Rolen this year. Edwin Encarnacion, who despite injuries put up a .834 OPS. This is about how fun it is to watch Adam Dunn play every goddamn day and either hit the ball a ton or strikeout. This is about Brandon Phillips being one of three players this year to steal 25 or more bases and only get caught twice (with Ichiro and Chris Duffy). This is about David Ross and Will’s David Ross Fan Club, and his 21 homers in 241 AB’s while Jason LaRue hit .194. This is about Aaron Harang striking out 216 batters this year for some reason. This post is about a team who seriously used Chris Michalak as a starting pitcher in a pennant race.

Kudos, Cincinnati Reds, You made baseball interesting.

Baseball around the World, 9/29/06

MLB:
Roger Clemens shits bed, Astros playoff hopes, and all but mathematically eliminates the Reds - Is Clemens the A-Rod of pitchers? The only World Series win he took part in, he threw a bat at Mike Piazza. He also has failed to win games despite his ERA, yet fans make excuses for him. Not that I think wins matter, I'm just interested as to the big difference in vitrol between the two of them. The Reds will need the Cardinals to lose the last three games and they'll need to win their last two to tie them.

Philadelphia rapes Brian Moehler to keep Phillies mathematically alive for wild card - Time to go back to sandpaper. Fun fact: Brian Moehler is the second highest paid player on the Marlins this season.

Poker legend Paul Phillips, Emil Brown, come up with clutch win to keep the race for #1 pick interesting - With two games left, the Royals hold only a one game lead on the Devil Rays, who managed a "shocking" 2-1 loss when Seth McClung "accidentally" walked in Jhonny Peralta with 1 out in the ninth. The Royals still have the clear advantage as they are playing a team with incentive to win, but this could come down to the wire with the Rays starting Jae Seo and Jason Hammel for the last two days of the season.

Japanese League:
Buffaloes linked with Terry Collins - After having respected manager Akira Ogi die before the the season and going in with replacement Katsuhiro Nakamura, the Orix Buffaloes are now looking to bring in former Astros and Angels manager Terry Collins to the club. Collins would join Marines manager Bobby Valentine and Nippon manager Trey Hillman as the lone foreign managers in the twelve team league. Anyone actually wanting to hire Terry Collins should take a look at this September game log from 1996.

Tigers win ninth straight, move within 2 of Dragons - This is a huge series at Koshien for the home-standing Tigers, who have a chance to completely tie up the Central League with about two weeks to play. They took game one behind the efforts of Makoto Imaoka, who had his first hit since June be a pinch-hit three-run double that broke the game open. The CL winner wins an automatic berth to the Japan Series against the winner of the PL's playoffs. On an unrelated note, try to see how much sexual innuendo Jim Allen can fit into one column.

Dutch League:

DOOR Neptunus' Raily Legito, who won the MVP after hitting .366, won't be playing.

Game 4 of the best-of-5 Holland Series will be played this Saturday, with Konica Minolta Pioneers (25-17) playing host to Corendon Kinheim (33-7-2). Pioneers lead the series 2-1. Kinheim sends stopper Patrick Beljaards (12-2, 1.76) up against the Pioneers Richard Orman (6-4, 3.55), a rematch of the game two starters, where Beljaards threw a CG and gave up just one earned to get Kinheim's one win. Pioneers seem to be a team of destiny this year though, especially after knocking off DOOR Neptunus, which had won the last eight Holland Series. In other Dutch league news, Instant Holland Almere 90 (14-26-1) earned the right to stay in the league with a 3-0 sweep in the promotion/relegation series with RCH-Pinguins.

Apparently, this guy will be putting up a live play-by-play. You'll have to suffer through the Dutch, but it's exciting baseball!

Mexican League:
The season is long over, I just wanted to point out that the Mexican league has perhaps the dumbest playoff structure ever. There are 16 teams, 12 make it, and the 2 "best losers" get to play in the second round too. Just in case you thought the NBA was bad.