Wait, I have a preview too! East

2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 N. Carolina 99.26% 81.43% 67.94% 48.69% 32.61% 20.90%
2 Georgetown 96.59% 81.33% 67.30% 32.43% 17.66% 9.09%
4 Texas 88.43% 55.85% 14.54% 6.11% 2.14% 0.69%
9 Mich. St. 60.71% 12.72% 7.24% 3.09% 1.10% 0.36%
3 Wash. St. 81.51% 52.09% 14.57% 3.27% 0.83% 0.19%
12 Arkansas 55.18% 24.33% 4.61% 1.52% 0.40% 0.09%
7 Boston Coll. 64.90% 13.48% 7.16% 1.44% 0.33% 0.07%
8 Marquette 39.29% 5.82% 2.70% 0.91% 0.24% 0.06%
6 Vanderbilt 71.57% 34.34% 7.68% 1.35% 0.27% 0.05%
5 USC 44.82% 17.69% 2.86% 0.83% 0.19% 0.04%
10 Texas Tech 35.10% 4.62% 1.79% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00%
13 New Mex. St. 11.57% 2.13% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
11 GW 28.43% 8.04% 0.90% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
14 Oral Roberts 18.49% 5.52% 0.52% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Belmont 3.41% 0.57% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 E. Kentucky 0.74% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

North Carolina is the runaway best team in basketball in the Pomeroy ratings. I think they'll face tough challenges from Michigan State and Georgetown, but I have them advancing as my lone 1 seed (Only 2 1 seeds have advanced the last three years)

In fact, to eschew normal format (and because I want to go to sleep) here...I don't have many surprises here...1 vs 2 and every top 4 seed except WSU making the sweet sixteen. GW grabs the other slot after WSU and Vanderbilt both fall, a nation yawns.

Wait, I have a preview too! South

2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 Ohio St. 98.62% 82.16% 68.80% 41.49% 21.00% 11.32%
3 Texas A&M 95.07% 70.87% 46.80% 27.35% 13.31% 6.91%
2 Memphis 98.03% 73.77% 34.47% 16.88% 6.59% 2.76%
6 Louisville 71.81% 23.52% 10.88% 4.33% 1.31% 0.43%
5 Tennessee 87.40% 51.42% 12.43% 3.29% 0.68% 0.15%
9 Xavier 61.50% 12.37% 6.84% 1.89% 0.41% 0.09%
10 Creighton 67.29% 20.26% 5.54% 1.68% 0.37% 0.09%
4 Virginia 89.61% 44.80% 9.40% 2.15% 0.38% 0.07%
8 BYU 38.50% 5.37% 2.36% 0.46% 0.07% 0.01%
11 Stanford 28.19% 4.89% 1.29% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
7 Nevada 32.71% 5.85% 0.94% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00%
12 LB St 12.60% 2.48% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
14 Pennsylvania 4.93% 0.72% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
13 Albany 10.39% 1.30% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 C. Conn. 1.38% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 North Texas 1.97% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%


I think it's interesting that Central Connecticut has the best chance to beat a #1 by the numbers. Not that it'll happen, just interesting. I have Ohio State shamelessly into the Elite Eight, but I think theres a chance they'll fall to Xavier.

15) North Texas vs. 2) Memphis North Texas; if it looks like a Conference USA team, plays like a Conference USA team (207th adjusted offense), and has a name like a Conference USA team (Mean Green), it will probably fall to a team that went 16-0 against them. I originally had Creighton ousting Memphis, but I decided I was being a little too harsh on the two seeds, so I moved them up to getting squished by Texas A&M; Memphis can't shoot threes.

14) Pennsylvania vs. 3) Texas A&M I hate to jump on the Texas A&M bandwagon, but they are good, they are deep, they play great defense (8th), and shoot threes (2nd). They're my pick to the Final Four. And for the champions. This will make Jay Bilas feel self-important again.

13) Albany vs. 4) Virginia
and
12) Long Beach State vs. 5) Tennessee)
This is the weakest pod in the whole tourney and I don't even think it's close. I have Tennessee making it out of the pod, only to get rammed by Ohio State or Michigan State.

11 Stanford vs. 6 Louisville
Louisville has home court, and is good. Stanford is the worst team in the field. If Louisville weren't playing my favorite to win the championship, I'd have them advancing further.

10 Creighton vs. 7 Nevada
It's been good to have you along for the ride, Nick Fazekas. Has it really been four years now? Wow. super. Don't the door hit your ass on the way out. Enjoy playing for Tau Ceramica. I actually like Nevada's team a lot better, but this is one of those random picks. And I figure either team is due to get pounded on by Memphis.

9 Xavier vs. 9 BYU
Xavier's a phenomenal shooting team, and they shut down the perimeter, which is really BYU's strength. If I had more juevos, I'd pick a Xavier upset of OSU. I still owe Xavier big for 2003. Super Nintendo Lionel Chalmers forever!

Wait, I have a preview too! West


2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 Kansas 99.19% 78.52% 66.68% 48.48% 32.32% 18.89%
2 UCLA 98.08% 67.22% 38.23% 16.59% 8.01% 3.18%
6 Duke 86.21% 51.88% 27.54% 11.37% 5.22% 1.95%
3 Pittsburgh 89.71% 43.85% 20.50% 7.35% 2.93% 0.93%
7 Indiana 71.17% 26.83% 11.68% 3.76% 1.34% 0.37%
8 Kentucky 50.09% 10.76% 6.46% 2.69% 0.97% 0.28%
9 Villanova 49.91% 10.69% 6.41% 2.67% 0.96% 0.27%
12 Illinois 50.70% 30.03% 6.59% 2.29% 0.68% 0.16%
5 Va. Tech 49.30% 28.88% 6.21% 2.12% 0.62% 0.14%
4 S. Illinois 82.89% 38.49% 7.52% 2.36% 0.63% 0.13%
10 Gonzaga 28.83% 5.86% 1.43% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
11 VCU 13.79% 3.05% 0.49% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Holy Cross 17.11% 2.60% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
14 Wright St. 10.29% 1.22% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Weber St. 1.92% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Play-In 0.81% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%


I think Kansas statistically is probably my second favorite #1 seed, but I really dislike their coaching and they do have a tendency to choke, so I've got them bowing out to Kentucky in the second round.

15 Weber State vs. 2 UCLA Yikes. I would love UCLA to get to the Final Four again, but I don't think it's going to happen. I have them losing to Indiana in the second round, and I'll explain further in my Indiana section.

14 Wright State vs. 3 Pittsburgh Wright State has a slight chance, but I don't think they have the shooting to pull an upset. I think pretty highly of Pittsburgh, but I don't think they'll get past Duke. Part of that is random, part of that is the fact that I remember thinking Xavier would get past Duke in 2004, when they outplayed them on the floor. Problem is, you know, Duke cheats.

13 Holy Cross vs. 4 Southern Illinois Southern Illinois is my Final Four team out of this region; They play great defense, they run a slow tempo, and they are okay at threes, despite not being quite so good at the inside shooting game. But, I think they'll get hot. They're more or less my random team I expect to do really well and catch all the breaks. Holy Cross is where Bill Simmons went to school. Fuck Bill Simmons.

12 Illinois vs. 5 Virginia Tech Illinois can't shoot and plays amazing defense, Virginia Tech doesn't do anything really well or really poorly, except avoiding turnovers. I have Illinois, cause at least one 12 has to win. They don't get past Southern Ill, but they do play a game with them where the winning team has less than 50 points.

11 VCU vs. 6 Duke Even if Duke was as bad as their record indicates (10th overall in the Pomeroy ratings), theres no way I'd ever pick against them advancing with the amount of breaks this team gets. And if that makes me a bitter west coast basketball fan, so be it. I have them getting to the sweet sixteen and losing. To Indiana. Again.

10 Gonzaga vs. 7 Indiana This is Gonzaga's least inspiring team in some time- I have no idea how it's a 10 seed. They still shoot well, they still can't play defense. Indiana can play defense, can stick the three, and will crash the glass on the undersized Bulldogs. Then they'll crash UCLA's party and Duke's party, before losing to fellow upstart Southern Illinois.

9 Villanova vs. 8 Kentucky Most even game in the tourney, IMO. I went with Kentucky's superior defense. I also decided that too many people were being down on Tubby Smith, so he should be the beneficiary of some good fortune and outcoach Bill Self on a national stage.

Wait, I have a preview too! Midwest

I will explain myself like this:
1) I use a lot of stats. If you want reasons like "X will lose because they are fading down the stretch", this isn't your preview.
2) I love teams that can shoot the 3 and play good defense, I think this keeps teams in games. All the numbers used in this are from Ken Pomeroy's site.
3) I also do some random picks, just because I know the better team won't always win.



Midwest
2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 Florida 99.72% 78.61% 56.54% 37.69% 21.07% 10.85%
2 Wisconsin 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% 25.15% 12.31% 5.45%
4 Maryland 86.42% 62.76% 26.04% 13.59% 5.64% 2.07%
6 Notre Dame 80.30% 47.69% 18.95% 6.86% 2.29% 0.66%
10 Georgia Tech 69.95% 25.14% 13.87% 5.07% 1.72% 0.50%
3 Oregon 86.02% 44.35% 15.76% 5.08% 1.51% 0.38%
5 Butler 72.39% 27.39% 7.13% 2.48% 0.65% 0.14%
9 Purdue 50.52% 10.89% 4.67% 1.70% 0.47% 0.11%
8 Arizona 49.48% 10.50% 4.45% 1.61% 0.44% 0.10%
7 UNLV 30.05% 6.16% 2.17% 0.45% 0.09% 0.01%
12 Old Dominion 27.61% 5.63% 0.70% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
11 Winthrop 19.70% 5.66% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Davidson 13.58% 4.21% 0.47% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
14 Miami (OH) 13.98% 2.31% 0.21% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
15 TAMU - CC 4.09% 0.43% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Jackson State 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%


I think we're all smart enough to pick against the 16 seeds, so I won't delve into those. I have Florida bowing out against Maryland, for the record.

15 TAMUCC vs. 2 Wisconsin - I love TAMUCC's chances in this game. I know that Wisconsin isn't a dog team, but they are missing injured center Brian Butch, and they haven't scored much without him; I think that could be key. Another reason that this game favors an upset is Wisconsin's slow pace: when you run less possessions, there are less possessions to see who the better team is. Finally, TAMUCC's strength is shooting. They were 14th in 3 points field goal %, 5th in 2pt fg%, and while Wisconsin's defense is good, turnovers are their weakest area (only 93rd). I picked TAMUCC in my bracket. I think they've got a good chance to win against a non-healthy Wisconsin squad. I don't think they'll be as fortunate to escape the 2nd round.

14 Miami (OH) vs. 3 Oregon - This team kicked a vastly superior Akron squad out so it could get it's name on the bracket for one round. Miami can't shoot. They play good defense, they have some inside game, they slow the tempo down. When it comes down to it, they have no outside shooting. This game will be closer than most expect, but Oregon will pull away, only to fall in the second round as well.

13 Davidson vs 4 Maryland - I always have a tradition of picking against these middle-tier ACC/Big East teams in the opening round out of hate, but I'm not pulling the trigger this time. I was one of the guys who took UTEP over Maryland a couple of years ago. Maryland's too good. I think Davidson would have a great chance against Butler, or Oregon even, but not against Maryland, who I have in my elite eight.

12 Old Dominion vs. 5 Butler - I don't understand how this is so many people's pick for the 12-5, I don't think Old Dominion is that good. Butler is okay, but not 5 seed material themselves. I see a Butler win and a quick dispatch in the round of 32.

11 Winthrop vs 6 Notre Dame - Another popular sleeper pick here in Winthrop. Problem is; Notre Dame is amazing. Their defense is only adequate, but they are excellent three point shooters. This is kind of the random pick here, but I'm gonna say Notre Dame puts it together on defense, and I'm going to ride them all the way to the Final Four.

10 Georgia Tech vs. 7 UNLV - Georgia Tech is led by a ton of freshman, which has led to a lot of people going against them. I have them getting to the sweet sixteen, and I like UNLV and think they could easily win this game too, but I'm going with the team that forces a lot of turnovers (almost as many as they commit), but is stellar offensively (16th in 2's, 61st in 3's) against the team that is not in the top 100 in either of them and isn't much better at playing defense.

9 Purdue vs. 8 Arizona - Matchup of two teams that are right next to each other in the Pomeroy ratings, at 22 and 23. Arizona has a dynamite inside offense and a poor defense, Purdue has...Brian Cardinal? No, he's gone. I hope. Purdue preys on turnovers, Arizona can't shoot the 3 and turns it over a lot. This game should be Purdues.