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2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 Kansas 99.19% 78.52% 66.68% 48.48% 32.32% 18.89%
2 UCLA 98.08% 67.22% 38.23% 16.59% 8.01% 3.18%
6 Duke 86.21% 51.88% 27.54% 11.37% 5.22% 1.95%
3 Pittsburgh 89.71% 43.85% 20.50% 7.35% 2.93% 0.93%
7 Indiana 71.17% 26.83% 11.68% 3.76% 1.34% 0.37%
8 Kentucky 50.09% 10.76% 6.46% 2.69% 0.97% 0.28%
9 Villanova 49.91% 10.69% 6.41% 2.67% 0.96% 0.27%
12 Illinois 50.70% 30.03% 6.59% 2.29% 0.68% 0.16%
5 Va. Tech 49.30% 28.88% 6.21% 2.12% 0.62% 0.14%
4 S. Illinois 82.89% 38.49% 7.52% 2.36% 0.63% 0.13%
10 Gonzaga 28.83% 5.86% 1.43% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
11 VCU 13.79% 3.05% 0.49% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Holy Cross 17.11% 2.60% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
14 Wright St. 10.29% 1.22% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Weber St. 1.92% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Play-In 0.81% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%


I think Kansas statistically is probably my second favorite #1 seed, but I really dislike their coaching and they do have a tendency to choke, so I've got them bowing out to Kentucky in the second round.

15 Weber State vs. 2 UCLA Yikes. I would love UCLA to get to the Final Four again, but I don't think it's going to happen. I have them losing to Indiana in the second round, and I'll explain further in my Indiana section.

14 Wright State vs. 3 Pittsburgh Wright State has a slight chance, but I don't think they have the shooting to pull an upset. I think pretty highly of Pittsburgh, but I don't think they'll get past Duke. Part of that is random, part of that is the fact that I remember thinking Xavier would get past Duke in 2004, when they outplayed them on the floor. Problem is, you know, Duke cheats.

13 Holy Cross vs. 4 Southern Illinois Southern Illinois is my Final Four team out of this region; They play great defense, they run a slow tempo, and they are okay at threes, despite not being quite so good at the inside shooting game. But, I think they'll get hot. They're more or less my random team I expect to do really well and catch all the breaks. Holy Cross is where Bill Simmons went to school. Fuck Bill Simmons.

12 Illinois vs. 5 Virginia Tech Illinois can't shoot and plays amazing defense, Virginia Tech doesn't do anything really well or really poorly, except avoiding turnovers. I have Illinois, cause at least one 12 has to win. They don't get past Southern Ill, but they do play a game with them where the winning team has less than 50 points.

11 VCU vs. 6 Duke Even if Duke was as bad as their record indicates (10th overall in the Pomeroy ratings), theres no way I'd ever pick against them advancing with the amount of breaks this team gets. And if that makes me a bitter west coast basketball fan, so be it. I have them getting to the sweet sixteen and losing. To Indiana. Again.

10 Gonzaga vs. 7 Indiana This is Gonzaga's least inspiring team in some time- I have no idea how it's a 10 seed. They still shoot well, they still can't play defense. Indiana can play defense, can stick the three, and will crash the glass on the undersized Bulldogs. Then they'll crash UCLA's party and Duke's party, before losing to fellow upstart Southern Illinois.

9 Villanova vs. 8 Kentucky Most even game in the tourney, IMO. I went with Kentucky's superior defense. I also decided that too many people were being down on Tubby Smith, so he should be the beneficiary of some good fortune and outcoach Bill Self on a national stage.