Future Considerations

shits done

2007-10-27T15:35:00.000-04:00

you're investigating ruins.

when/if i make a new blog, it'll be linked here.

The most random gathering of sports jerseys on the internet

2007-09-02T15:23:00.001-04:00

http://www.lids.com/style/7090

I know it's a hat store first, but this page just brought me intense joy. If you're like me (or Brandon), you know that sometimes when you go to games, you find people with really strange jerseys. Like for instance, Yadier Molina.

We've found their source.

I don't think I've ever seen a place that goes out on a limb to advertise two different Ryan Langerhans jerseys before, but if you're into that kinda thing, Lids has you covered.

Chasing History

2007-08-25T00:51:00.001-04:00

Barry Bonds. The name alone conjures so many different feelings in different peoples minds. And this post has nothing to do with him.

No, despite the fact that we've had a 300 game winner (Tom Glavine), 3 probable Hall Of Famers (Bonds, Frank Thomas, and ARod) hit homer milestones, and 1 more reach 3000 hits (Craig Biggio), this post is about something completely different.

(So it's Biggio's historic pursuit of getting hit a bunch of times? Nope, I'll leave that to Plunk Biggio)

Nope, we're here to talk today about the heroic pursuit of Jim Rice's GIDP records by Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman, who has grounded into 24 double plays so far this year, is 11 shy of reaching the rarefied air that only Rice has reached: 35 double plays in a season.

You'd think that with the proliferation of runners in the last 15 years, we'd have more players challenging this record, but there have been only 3 players to reach 30 GIDP's in that time span: Ben Grieve, Brad Ausmus, and surprisingly enough, Ivan Rodriguez in his MVP season.

With only a month left to play, it's unlikely that Zimmerman will play enough to catch Jim Rice; he'd need a historically bad month. But, he could very easily join that 30 GIDP club, which is quite a feat in it's own right. I encourage Nationals fans to root for this to happen; you might as well get some mileage out of your lousy season. Manny Acta probably deserves manager of the year for keeping you from losing 100 games, but if you had lost 100 games, you'd at least be a uniquely crappy club from the rest of the crappy NL clubs.

The life of obscurity

2007-08-20T17:26:00.000-04:00

If you're reading this blog, then you are likely knowledgeable enough about baseball to know who Mike Venafro is. If not, here's the scoop: Venafro's a journeyman submarine-thrower who is now pitching in AAA. Basically, one of the many insignificant stories of the major leagues: good, but not good enough.

Myspace.com is somewhere to go to take pictures of yourself, maybe hit on some women, or, in the case of my former self, make joke accounts. Specifically, a joke account about Mike Venafro. I never had a vendetta against the guy, I just thought making an account would be a funny thing to do with the loads of spare time I had in 2005. Just a joke that myself and the sports nerds that I know (most of the other bloggers on this site, specifically) could laugh about.

I didn't check the thing for about a year, and all was normal in Venaspace until this message was sent to me on Sunday night. I was notified by e-mail about it.

From: Lisa

Date: Aug 19, 2007 6:55 PM

Subject: you are a imposter [sic] and a loser
Body: you are a loser 1st and for most [sic]. mike has a family and is just trying to make a living.he is contacting his agent,who is a a lawyer, to see how he can remove your imposter [sic] page and furthermore take you to court for the damages. hope you have a great day. by the way, can you play baseball?

Now, a few notes about this:

1) I'm a loser now, 1st and for most. Glad we got that out of the way.

2) I created this account in November, 2005. If Mike Venafro is only finding out about this now, how much "damage" could I have caused him? If anything, I should be thanked for being one of the few people who know who he is.

3) Who is Lisa? Her page, and her message, tell me nothing about her, other than that she's 29 and likes to use beer bottles to make promiscuous poses.

4) How did Mike find this page anyway? Was he googling himself to see if any papers wrote about the Cardinals giving him a minor league contract?

(Note: I wanted to see if any full stories were printed regarding this signing. I even searched Deadspin, Cardinal haven, to see if he even got a blurb from Will Leitch. Nope. The only thing I found there was a link to this Baseball Musings post from spring training, 2006. Sorry about the back, Mike.)

5) Lisa wants to know if I can play baseball. Is she the captain of a rec league softball team? Can I get in on that?

This whole situation amazes me. Suing a college student whose yearly income is under $3000 is a bit much, I'd say.

So, maybe the mysterious Lisa is bluffing. Maybe not. Maybe Mike Venafro's gonna come after me with a Triple-A vengeance. Updates on this exciting event in my life will come as/if it develops.

UPDATED: Mike Venafro had Tom delete the account. My life, as I know it, is over.

The case of the dissapearing "dominant teams"

2007-08-13T04:28:00.000-04:00

Just something I've noticed while going through the records here on a hazy Monday morning...does it strike anyone else as odd that for the second straight year, a grand total of 0 teams can be projected out to win 100 games? As of right now, the Red Sox are closest, with a 70-47 record, which if you project out to their current .598 winning percentage, gives them 97 wins.

Last year, the Mets and Yankees tied for the best record, also both with 97 wins. In 2005, the Cardinals won 100 games on the dot in what has been historically over the last 7-odd years the weakest division in baseball, and the White Sox won 99. You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find a team that truly dominated their league, when the Cardinals won 105 games, and a hell of a lot of good it did them against the Red Sox.

Has baseball really changed that much just in the last few years? Technology expands, scouting is easier to integrate with all this new communication software, sure. I think it's fair to say that the playing field has been slightly evened, to where if you try hard as a small market, you won't embarrass yourself. I also think it's fair to say that teams have more money to spend and attract free agents with than ever before. Is this what's pushing us towards these 97 win "good but not great" best records? Or is it a more random fluctuation?

Historically, the last time before last year (and looking like this year) that we had 0 100 win teams in either league was 2000, when only one team won even 95 games (the White Sox, a lot of good it did them), it happened again in 96, when the Indians could only manage 99 wins. However, once is a blip, twice may be a trend. Are we really moving into an era where nobody in either league can even win 100 games?

I think this is primarily a credit to the small market teams. Whether or not you think Gil Meche was a smart signing, he definitely increased the Royals chances to not finish with 100 losses. Even the perennially clueless Pirates have lost 100 games just once in this decade, and the last team to lose 100 games in the NL was the ridiculously horrible 2004 Diamondbacks (aka Luis Gonzalez, Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, and 22 guys from your local Chuck-E-Cheese who looked pretty good at Skiball). Meanwhile, the AL had for a long time been able to count on beating up on the Royals and the Devil Rays and the Tigers in 2003, but for the most part these teams are making strides both in free talent and in rich talent, and these have finally paid off to where only the Devil Rays have a real chance at 100 losses, and that's mainly due to the fact that their bullpen has resembled Mel Rojas in his prime.

So, blame Gil Meche for the fact that there are no dominant teams. He was supposed to sign with someone good.

I'm back, and so is Penny Hardaway

2007-08-10T07:37:00.000-04:00

I didn't learn much whilst taking intensive Spanish for 10 weeks. Oh sure, I know how to properly conjugate nouns and the like, but it didn't really help me speak the language any better. Especially when it was all crammed in so fast that I didn't even have time to learn the vocabulary, I speak Spanish like Joe Morgan analyzes baseball games. I say the same few things over and over again and hope nobody notices. Except I don't get paid. Minor quibble, really.

There isn't really any way to segue this into Penny Hardaway. I'm just exhausted and am sick of seeing the hiatus post. Penny Hardaway was my favorite player as a kid, and when Shaq left him and Orlando crumbled it was quite tragic. Now he's catching on....with Shaq. Again.

I'll always remember this game against the Bulls they had on TNT, the year when Shaq got sent to the injured list by Matt Geiger, and Penny single-handedly shredded the Bulls. As someone who grew up in Houston, and had all the accomplishments of my favorite basketball team overshadowed by a bunch of pompous jackasses who insisted Michael Jordan would have beaten the 93-94 and 94-95 Rockets, I was pretty much as anti-Bulls and anti-Jordan as any person reasonably can be. You recognize his greatness, but you still fucking hate him and that fucking arrogant tongue and smirk.

And that was still the best performance I can remember anyone having against the Bulls in that timeframe. I'm sure theres probably been others, but I'm not sure any other performances involved a team who's second best offensive player was Nick Anderson. Penny dominated that game and had me and anyone else watching convinced that he was the next great player. Now he's not even in the top two most famous people to star in his own commercial.

And now after all these years, he's re-uniting with Shaq. I've always wondered what would have happened had the two of them stuck together. Penny's knees eventually were a problem, but would that deterioration have gone slower if he had never had to take on the pure scoring role that he was asked to?

So I guess that leads to an inevitable conclusion. Shaquille O'Neal murdered Penny's career, and now he is full of guilt and used his influence with the Heat to try to feel better about himself. Way to go, Shaq.

FC on hiatus

2007-07-02T15:45:00.000-04:00

In case you hadn't noticed.

I've wound up with too much on my plate (The Daily Cougar and this amazingly time-intensive summer school course) to write more than one-two things a week, and I'm frustrated with the lack of effort by other members. This was supposed to be a community blog, not a "Chris does all the entries" blog.

A steam of consciousness from a Baseball in the hands of Scott Schoeneweis

2007-06-12T16:29:00.000-04:00

Shit. Oh God please don't let him pick me up.

Please please please please please.

Fuck he's coming this way.

Fuck.

Look, I just want you assholes to get off the field as fast as possible so I can go absorb some more air molecules in the company of my brethren. Is that too much to ask?

I know some of my brothers just don't want to get hit, and I would be very happy if I were one of them, seeing as how you throw strikes less often than people fall for Nigerian prince e-mails. I just don't wanna be hit hard okay? You're a lefty, you're supposed to be better than this. Your WHIP is approaching the Mendoza Line. I know I'm supposed to have pity on you because you had cancer, but you're making enough money to buy the plant that I was made at. How about throwing a pitch down the plate?

Umpire: BALL ONE!

Oh, or you could just do that. You pussy. Do you see that Lo Duca is just sitting over the plate now? That he's given up on even trying to pick a spot for you?

**Ball flies over the head of Lo Duca, runners advance**

FUCK YOU! What the fuck man? Do you have four legs? Are you like a Dolphin or something? I mean if you're gonna fuck up this bad, couldn't you just make this more entertaining? Try to pitch the ball off your butt or something? Out of your butt? Lob it up and then kick it at the plate?

**Ball nearly hits the batter**

Muuuch fuckin better, slick. Yeah, you better rub your fucking hand on the rosin bag you piece of shit. Todd Hundley could throw better than this. Post-surgery. Don't even bother trying to grip the seams or anything bro, I'm afraid you might unravel me in your hands before you get the ball out of your glove.

Fuuuuuck.

**Scott Schoeneweis' game ERA is now 225**

**contemplates job security**

I'm scared. Too scared to even wet my pants.

Just relax and it'll come, son.

A complete loss for words

2007-06-07T20:07:00.000-04:00

Alright, so I've sort of missed the boat on the recent wave of traffic that's been hitting FC. Mad props to Chris and Jonny and everyone else for getting this place linked on Deadspin, among other plaudits. I've been keeping a low profile, however, for a few reasons. Mainly, once FC started actually getting traffic from time to time, I didn't feel like 5,000-word rants about the Pirates would be a positive thing for the site. And it helped that even I was tired of whining about how much God hates me for sticking me with the sports world's version of a fate worse than death.

But, y'know, today is supposed to be the day when it might actually be permissable for the morons who've been assfucked into supporting a dead-end, no-hope baseball franchise to feel some sort of optimism for the future.

But no. Not for me. Not ever.

Today, in the first four rounds, the Pirates used their allotted draft picks on the following players:

A college reliever. And not just any college reliever, but the BEST ONE IN THE DRAFT CLASS!!! Oh wait, that's fucking useless when it's been proven time and time again that an effective bullpen is far and away the easiest thing to assemble. The vast majority of relievers today were starters in the minor leagues who weren't good enough to start and got converted to the bullpen. You wouldn't know this from watching this train wreck of a front office, though.
A college starter who is projected to be a #4 or 5 in the majors...IF he can develop a changeup or improve a mediocre curveball. Oh yeah, he's already had labrum issues in the past. I'm assuming by this point Dave Littlefield has Dr. Andrews on speed dial.
A college shortstop who hits line drives and is a project defensively. Apparently, the fact that the Pirates have approximately two players at the Major League level who are capable of hitting home runs on a remotely consistent basis. Granted, I was wrong about Brian Bixler, whose profile reads almost word-for-word the same as this guy, but come on. We don't need another Brian Bixler because we have one already.
A high school center fielder who from what I can gather is already being billed as a massive overdraft. He wasn't in any top-200 lists, and there were still several consensus top 100s available. He's fast, though. Of course! He's a CREECHLING.

So there it is. I mean, you know it has to be bad when I'm spurred to write for FC. I'm standing on the precipice, slowly being pushed towards the edge. But no matter how badly I want to just turn my back and walk away, I can't make myself do it. Maybe someone out there has some idea of how I can quit, but for now, and for the forseeable future, I'm stuck wondering what kinds of horrific things I did in my previous life to deserve this.

This Is As Close As Barry Bonds Will Ever Get To Holding The World Series Trophy In Glorious Triumph

2007-06-07T05:44:00.000-04:00

I've mentioned before how I work in a baseball card shop, and today my employment in a card shop has given me inspiration to post yet again. I present to you,

Barry Bonds, World Series MVP, World Series Champion.

We were looking through old stacks of mail in my boss' office and happened upon this. Suffice it to say, the Garret Anderson version probably resulted in more orders. To be honest, though, I'm not sure exactly what they're trying to sell. Is it a bobblehead? Is it a doll of some sort? Who knows. Whatever it is, it delighted me to see images of Barry Bonds in a World Series Champion cap and t-shirt.

However, it also painfully reminded me of the 2002 World Series, the most decisive lose-lose series I've ever watched in any sport in my life. At least it was good baseball, I guess.

Still, now is not the time to lament that ill-conceived series. Now is the time to laugh at Barry Bonds and companies that produce their championship memorabilia (or, at least, their championship memorabilia advertisements) in advance. Laugh away, readers. Laugh away.

Man, my district sucks at sports

2007-06-05T21:24:00.000-04:00

Upon better-knowing-my-very-own-Congressional-district last night on the Colbert Report, I've realized that my district is home to some very bad sports history.

But hey, Ronnie Woo Woo lives here.

Sacred Cow Ausmus finally led to graze on bench

2007-06-05T03:09:00.000-04:00

(the heavily edited DC version)

With the Astros struggling offense dragging the team to a 12-17 May record, manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura finally came to a long overdue conclusion: Brad Ausmus is not an everyday catcher.

Ausmus has long been a Houston favorite, giving terrific quotes to all the beat writers and being a leader in the clubhouse and in the community. The club has been very successful since he rejoined in 2001, peaking in 2005 with a World Series appearance. Because of the high esteem that he’s been held in, Ausmus has become somewhat of a sacred cow on the Houston sports scene. Nobody wants to write ill of someone who by all accounts seems like a good guy and gives great quotes. However, despite the hustle and intangibles he is known for, Ausmus’ on-field play has been holding back the Astros offense for years.

In his last seven years with the Astros, Ausmus has never hit above .260, never hit ten homers, and never driven in more than fifty runs. Moving beyond the triple crown stats shows an even more telling picture; Ausmus’ .314 on-base percentage in his second tenure in Houston has been keeping runs off the board that the Astros could have used in close playoff races. Taking out the intentional walks that he is given in front of the pitcher lowers this to .304, and he has grounded into over a hundred double plays throughout the same period of time, killing many rallies.

Fifty-six games into the season, the Astros have scored only two hundred twenty-seven times, ahead of only the Nationals and Cardinals among the NL’s sixteen teams. Ausmus is hardly the teams only offensive problem; Lance Berkman is off to a slow start, Craig Biggio’s quest for 3,000 hits has been sputtering along slowly, and Adam Everett has never been able to hit. However, Berkman will bounce back, Everett has his sterling defense to fall back on, and Biggio will probably lose playing time to Mark Loretta as soon as he reaches his milestone. Ausmus has three Gold Gloves, the most recent of which came last year, and also carries a reputation for working well with young pitchers.

Unfortunately, the gold gloves are more an indication of reputation than actual skill. His 2006 Gold Glove was laughable, as he only threw out twenty-two percent of runners attempting to steal. By comparison, the American League Gold Glove catcher last year, Ivan Rodriguez, threw out fifty-one percent of attempted basestealers. As for his reputation with young pitchers, the Astros haven’t broken in a rookie starter with an ERA under 4 since Tim Redding in 2003, and Redding hasn’t been in the majors since 2005.

So today’s ultimate solution for the Astros with Ausmus is to let him split time with failed ex-Tigers prospect Eric Munson, a career .212 hitter. Munson has demonstrated that he can hit well at Triple A, but this has never translated to the majors. While this probably isn’t a permanent solution, recognizing the problem is the first step. For far too long, the Astros have been content with Brad Ausmus sucking up outs at the bottom of their order.

Actual solutions will be harder to find. Cubs catcher Michael Barrett could be available, especially in the wake of last Friday’s fight with star starter Carlos Zambrano. The problem is that the Astros have very little to offer; their farm system is downright barren now that Hunter Pence has graduated to the majors. What the Astros need to do is something that Tim Purpura has never demonstrated an ability to do: get creative. Trading a career backup who has shown an ability to hit but never gotten an extended opportunity would make a lot of sense for the Astros. A few players who could fit this bill include Mike Redmond of the Twins, Javier Valentin of the Reds, and Kelly Shoppach of the Indians.

The Astros main trade chip will probably be Brad Lidge, who has quietly lowered his ERA to 2.70 after being removed from the closers role early in the season. Given the Reds penchant for trading for relievers, it’s not impossible to envision a trade between these two teams involving Lidge. Perhaps a deal of Lidge for recently demoted but promising third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and Valentin would work out for both teams. Especially since the Astros seem to hold Morgan Ensberg in a much lower regard than most teams around baseball.

Either way, the first step to solving the problem is admitting you have a problem. Brad Ausmus has clearly been a problem for the Astros for years, and it’s nice that they’ve finally realized it. Getting a quality catcher isn’t easy, but if the Astros just get a little creative, they can turn a weakness into a strength.

Possibly, a more likely root of Gary Sheffield's beef

2007-06-04T19:13:00.000-04:00

A bit has been made of Gary Sheffield making comments regarding the reason why there are fewer African Americans in Major League Baseball today than in the past. Sheffield attributed the decrease in African Americans to an increase in players from Latin America, and the ability of the powers that be to more easily "control" the Latin American players of African descent, whereas he implies that the powers that be need to "respect" him, and "These are the things [Sheffield's] race demands."

However, I think Gary Sheffield may have missed the mark. I don't think that the drop in African American baseball players has been due to what Sheffield believes to be differences in response to "authority," but rather, the drop could be due to a general, widespread neglect of baseball programs in predominantly African American high schools.

It is also easy to point to the large number of players coming out of the Caribbean, as Sheffield does, but this trend has been going on for a long time. Even in 1985 Time magazine was reporting about the influx of talent in the Dominican Republic, even taking the time to quote a 24 year old [!!!!!] Julio Franco.

To look at the lack of attention paid to baseball programs at predominantly African American schools, I looked at the connection between not only record, but games played compared to percentage of the student body that is African American.

Chicago Public Schools "racial ethnic survey" for 2007 (pdf)

Chicagosports.com baseball standings

These are the two main websites used for this comparison. The Chicago Public Schools results are listed on the Chicagosports.com page from the Jackie Robinson Division to the Luis Aparicio Division (and somehow Ozzie Guillen got a division, too).

In particular, I looked at the results in the Double Duty Radcliffe Division and Luis Aparicio Division, and compared them to the racial makeup of the Jackie Robinson Division [School (total record, division record) % African American]

APARICIO DIVISION
Dunbar (10-4, 8-0) 98.3%
Englewood (4-4, 4-3) 98.2%
Bronzeville (3-5, 3-3) 96.2%
Bowen (2-4, 2-3) [not listed]
Gage Park (1-10, 1-5) 41.7%
Noble Street Charter (0-5, 0-2) 10.7%
Harper (0-6, 0-3) 99.1%

RADCLIFFE DIVISION
Farragut (10-2, 10-1) 21.4%
Manley (9-10, 9-1) 99.9%
Orr (5-2, 5-1) 90.0%
Clark (0-3, 0-3) 98.1%
Senn (0-4, 0-4) 40.1%
Austin (0-6, 0-6) 98.8%
Raby (0-8, 0-7) 99.3%

JACKIE ROBINSON DIVISION
Lane Tech (21-9, 11-0) 12.6%
Clemente (18-14, 10-2) 31.8%
Young (22-9, 9-3) 31.7%
Harlan (23-10, 8-4) 98.9%
Lake View (22-11, 8-4) 14.1%
Mather (14-14, 8-4) 13.2%
Simeon (23-10, 7-4) 99.6%
Von Steuben (10-16, 5-7) 31.2%
Kenwood (8-13, 4-8) 93.1%
Northside College Prep (8-15, 4-8) 6.4%
Schurz (11-18, 1-11) 5.4%
Hyde Park (7-17, 1-11) 99.3%
Foreman (5-18, 1-11) 16.9%

The Chicago Public Schools, as a whole, are predominantly African American and Latino American. For this survey, the total results for Chicago Public Schools list African Americans as 47.9% of the total student body, and "Hispanics" as 38.3%.

It could be assumed that the Jackie Robinson Division is the place where the best teams in the Public League are placed. The division produced both teams who played in the city championship [the Whitney Young Dolphins who went on to defeat my very own Lane Tech Indians 1-0], and at 13 teams, they have six more than any of the other divisions in the Public League (all other divisions have seven teams). Of those 13 teams, 4 have an African American enrollment of above 90%; while of the 14 teams in the Radcliffe and Aparicio divisions only four have African American enrollments below 90%. It seems as though there is at least a little bit of a correlation between African American enrollment and baseball team support, if it is assumed that there is more emphasis placed on the baseball programs in the Robinson Division than in the Radcliffe and Aparicio Divisions.

Looking at the results in this fashion can be problematic in several ways:

- This looks solely at the racial makeup of Chicago Public Schools compared to those school's baseball programs, and does not take into consideration baseball programs in other cities.
- The Chicago Public Schools sports website does not have a standings or results page. It does have a schedule page, but there are no results to be found on that page. Searching the IHSA website only yields results for the state playoffs.
- There are no given reasons for the games played differential in some divisions (for example, in the Double Duty Ratcliffe Division, the difference between Clark HS which only played 3 games, and Farragut, which played 11 games). Possibilities could be rainouts, forfeits, or that the game results might not have been reported to Chicagosports.com. (I realize that for some divisions, the division does not have "FINAL" next to its name, but still, if the games simply have not been reported, that's still problematic)
- In addition to simply the decline in African American born players, a decline across the board could also be attributed to an increase in scouting in Asian countries over the past 15-20 years.

-------

So now the question needs to be asked, and I'm sure Gary Sheffield asks this too, how can we alleviate this situation? How can we increase interest in playing baseball in predominantly African American schools?

First of all, there has to be a stop put to the oppression-through-neglect tactics that might be going on in these schools. In situations where interest is too low to form a full team, maybe the team could be merged with a team from a nearby school (or two) with similarly low interest in baseball. Low interest in-and-of-itself can not be a reason to disband a team.

After that, there would have to be an way to build interest in the sport. The Chicago Cubs have two African American Hall of Famers who would be great ambassadors for the sport in the areas where interest is low. Billy Williams and Ernie Banks could be voices within the community who could help build the next generation of great African American baseball players. Current players, such as Gary Sheffield himself or current Cubs superstar Derrek Lee, could be at the forefront of helping to stir new interest in baseball.

The possible roots of the shrinking number of African Americans in Major League Baseball transcends simply baseball. This isn't just a baseball issue, it's an issue of equity. There really is no reason for a baseball team to play only three games in a season, when a standard season consists of what appears to be at least 10-12 conference games. Even in the event that the games simply were not reported to the news source, it perpetuates the idea that games played by those schools are unimportant, and it destroys any ground upon which a stronger baseball program could have been built. So yes, sports equity should be an issue here, and the sooner this form of oppression is dealt with, the sooner that percentage of African Americans, and even American minorities across the board, in the Major Leagues goes back up.

Who knows, I might be a little off the mark here. It could be that the interest in baseball at certain schools has always been low. There could be more to the scouting of Asian American markets than I've taken into account here. It could be that Major League teams don't scout any city public schools unless there's a sure-fire major leaguer involved (Victor Diaz attended Roberto Clemente High School of the Jackie Robinson Division). However, I think that the percentage of African Americans in the Major Leagues could increase if participation in the sport is encouraged at the high school, or even pee-wee level (no, I didn't see Hardball, and as long as Keanu Reeves is still the lead character, I don't suspect that I'd even stay awake past the first 45 minutes) in certain areas. Granted, even if such changes took place today, the affects wouldn't be seen for the next 20-30 years, and by that time who knows what could happen to the demographics in Major League Baseball.

...but it would still be worth it, for a host of other reasons.

Just a youtube today...

2007-06-04T05:47:00.000-04:00

Got other writing commitments again. Borat's classic guide to baseball.

One Mans Opinion: The Top 256 Dugouts of all-time

2007-06-01T07:14:00.000-04:00

I am not going to get super sappy about this, so I'll just explain this in the simplest way I know how. One day, somewhere around late May 2005, I found The Dugout, when it was linked in some Baseball Think Factory thread. It was hilarious, I laughed all day at it. I shared with friends who laughed all day at it. We scoured the archives.

It's been a staple of my internet reading for almost two years now. I've even made a few dumb NFL ones on here. Mainly based on the premise that Owen Daniels is Jim Thome. Anyway, to celebrate this website for making me laugh a lot, I decided there should be a tribute. And what better tribute then...a top 25 list! ~~Top 25 Simpsons Characters!~~ Okay okay, Top 25 Dugouts.

I've re-read these over about the past four nights, my initial cutdown list was about 60 or 70 long, and I've shaped these into a Top 25 I feel comfortable with. I tried to emphasize the past couple of years more than the present, because those guys have steadily been gaining in popularity and I think it'd be nice to showcase some of their older stuff. I also did not include the Special Events, just because I think it's unfair to the other Dugouts to judge them against such high standards.

Honorable Mention: Dangit Bobby by B

A criminally underrated TV show, so I snuck this onto my list as the last pick over the equally deserving topics of halloween costumes and Peter Pan. Theres nothing profound about this strip, it's a simple punchline, and it works.

#25: Secret Weapon by B

This also easily could've been one of Braden's other appearances, but I settled on this one because I am a sucker for NES references. I think Braden Looper is the most underused character in Dugout history; all of his appearances that I can remember have been terrific. Unlike real life where he's ~~terrible~~ shit, he really has a 3.65 ERA? As a starter?

#24: Pete Rose And The Bottom 3 by B

This is one of the better examples of B's pop-culture radar, which sometimes misses me completely and sometimes slays me. I am a big fan of the Pete Rose running gag, which reminds me of another compliment I could give to The Dugout: they seem to know just when to stop milking the running gags. They run this, the Young Brothers, the Jeter/ARod buttsex, Bonds and steroids, and Manny being Manny pretty well, and I never feel like any of those jokes are forced. Speaking of...

#23: I Was Never Good At Goodbyes by Nick

While the Young brothers usually settle for robbing convenience stores these days, they weren't always unstoppable in The Dugout. This one brings us back to a happier day, when Jim Leyland was feared and Ugueth Urbina wasn't incarcerated. Also, it's always nice to have a voice of reason when The Dugout goes all zany on you.

#22: Keith Hernandez Fucking Knives: Part 1 of 175 by Jon

When someone can write about loving cutlery so passionately, it grabs my attention. Heart-wrenching strip. Also, Mike Piazza's screenname is fabulous.

#21: Felipe Alou's Brain by B

One of my favorite things about The Dugout is how well they handle the real media in their strips, and this is just one example of it that I felt had to be included in the Top 25. Also, I'm probably going to hell for this but I love Wilford Brimley jokes to death and I hope he is still riding that fucking horse around and saying "diah-beatus" when I'm 80.

#20: Brandon Pierzynski Wins the Football Game by Jon

Sorry to bring this up again, Angels fans, but Josh Paul's stream of consciousness here is incredibly funny, and the fact that Tim McCarver is involved just makes it even better. Random McCarver aside: Wasn't he funny in Baseketball? Wouldn't he be better if he announced that way all the time?

#19: Trashbags You Guys by B

Another Dugout commentary I agree with: HOK Sports is designing the same ballpark over and over and over again.

#18: A Friend In Jesus by Nick

Nick likes to write about the Red Sox and steroid cheaters ruining baseball. I hate hearing about both of these topics, so I'm usually at odds mentally with a lot of Nick Dugouts. I thought this was nice because we go beyond the "you suck" aspect of steroids and get into the actual motivations. Also cause it's fucking funny, but you knew that.

#17: Life With Hendry by Jon

One of the things I most enjoy about Jon's writing is his ability to make me think of things in perspectives I'd never thought of before. Like Jim Hendry being an 11-year-old girl with a livejournal and secreting mayonnaise from his pores.

#16: Spring Training 2007: Kansas City Royals by Jon

Okay, first of all the PECOTA segment has always been beautiful. Every strip he appears in becomes some kind of epic battle between good and evil. Actually, my favorite part of this strip is the irony of Octavio Dotel being douchebaggy that they traded Carlos Beltran for Mark Teahen.

#15: Jeffrey Loria is a Giant Charade by Jon

The Florida Marlins are frequently covered well in The Dugout, but this one stood out to me because the charade opener and the closing lines are both incredible enough to be strips of their own.

#14: Picks To Click

Isn't hyperbole wonderful? This is the second-highest of the really "old time" Dugouts. I've always hated these two even though I only remember them once a year, when I channel surf and accidentally end up on some depressing White Sox-Blue Jays game only to hear these clowns perform on-air fellatio every time Scott Posednik manages to bunt it back to the pitcher. To go 2005 on this situation, couldn't we just have the Panthers cheerleaders announce if we wanted this?

#13: Spring Training: New York Yankees by B

Probably the best example of Kyle Farnsworth's work, and the most depth you can get from him that isn't in one of the events. Kyle slays everyone in this strip. Everyone. He even struck you down for reading it. Also I fucking hate Carlos Mencia, and his shit-tacular schtick is well-envisioned here.

#12: Mike Hampton Is The 7th Best Player In Baseball by Jon

WOULD YOU LIKE TO READ ANALYSIS?
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YOU HAVE SELECTED "NO".

#11: A Rebuilding Year by Jon

The space pirate paradox is very real; which side really should have more power?

#10: Will Sun Bet A Mitt? by Jon

I miss the wordplay gag, and this was clearly the best of them. The fact that it justifies Sun Woo-Kim's existence in my eyes (I always used to confuse him and Seung Song) qualifies this for the Top 10.

#9: Scientific Progress Goes Apeshit by Jon

Little known fact: This post is actually part of a long-running game of Calvinball I am playing with fellow FC contributor Brandon Lee. The score is 78Y to VVIIX9.

#8: Cory Lidle's New Home by Jon

Possibly the most well-known Dugout, with good reason. Scathing social commentary on newspaper hacks mixed with good old fashioned Jim Thome Love.

#7: The Temperature Of Citizen's Bank Park by B

If there were other huge Dugout historians, they'd probably haggle with this one. This piece has a lot of sentimental value to me because my uncle and aunt were raised by Pete Incaviglia in the wild.

#6: NL Central 007 by Jon

I grew up destroying my step-brothers at Goldeneye, so this strip brought back memories. No mention of Proximity Mines, sadly. Either way, you have to feel bad for poor Ned Yost and his Kolb's.

#5: The Worst Sports Bar Ever by Jon

Does this show my Jon bias yet? Is it weird that I think he's had so many of the Top 10? Why do I admire his writing so? Anyway, making fun of bad commercials is always encouraged.

I mean, come on, between 7:39 AM and 7:45 AM, i rewrote this line seven times! Come on!

#4: PlayerEmpiricalComp.OptimizationTestAlgorithm by Jon

PECOTA's first appearance, which I think is a big enough event on it's own to put it in the Top 5. I feel he's the defining character of The Dugout right now. I've run out of synonyms for funny but trust me it is that as well.

#3: A Sad Day For The Grimsley Gang by Jon

This was actually a serious contender for #1, but I bumped it down because I thought the top 2 were a little more creative. Still, it's accurate, it tears down ESPN, and it's provided me with a fantasy league team name (The Grimsley Gang).

#2: Time To Pick A New Target by B

This post proves the lifelong adage that you always pick on the guy with the biggest glasses. Thats what you get, Sabo.

#1: Hometown Heroes by Jon

I once heckled Jamie Moyer about his Magic Cards and he looked at me strangely. Like maybe I knew. We're on to you, Jamie.

To tide you over until Friday

2007-05-31T05:20:00.001-04:00

When I plan to put up a big post.

Here is some Japanese Baseball ACTION. And by ACTION, I mean "wow this japanese pitcher sure is a pussy."

Fair Readers, Go Out There And Become A D Leaguer

2007-05-29T03:15:00.001-04:00

I love the D League. I love that Kelenna Azuibuke can be plucked up from nowhere and be a far more serviceable backup thank half the guys earning fat contracts at the end of benches (hey Adonal Foyle) in the NBA. I love that Jose Juan Barea, the first Northeastern Husky in the NBA since Reggie Lewis (that one went well, by the way), played there some last season and wrecked the shit out of everyone. I love that Joe Shipp, my favorite player ever from Cal, continues on in it. Everything about it is fun. It's like minor league baseball, but much more navigable and easy to follow since instead of seven thousand teams there are like 25.

With that in mind, if any of you out there have reasonable basketball skills, this might be fun.

The NBA Development League Pre-Draft Camp offers athletes an opportunity to showcase their talents in front of NBA & D-League front office personnel, as well as coaches & representatives from every D-League team. Participants will be competing for the opportunity to sign a D-League standard player contract and be placed in the 2007 NBA Development League Draft to be held in November, 2007.

....

The Pre-Draft Camp will consist of up to 200 players to be selected by NBA & D-League front office personnel. All selected participants will be notified prior to the camp. The $500 fee will cover lodging & transportation while in Dallas/Arlington, TX, as well as practice gear. If selected, you will be responsible for arriving in Dallas, TX on Friday, July 27. Transportation between DFW Airport, the player hotel, and the camp site will be provided.

The camp is in Arlington, and there's a $500 fee you have to front with your application, but if they don't select you you get it back, so there's not a whole lot to lose here. There were like 15 D Leaguers called up last year to the NBA, so teams are definitely using it. I think it'd be great for basketball to eventually establish it as a true AAA, where each team has its own affiliate to assign their own players too. You could expand the draft or, at the very least, just sign a bunch of deserving college players and give them a shot to show something.

Anyway, all four of you FC readers, take a shot. Make this moment last

A blog entry about how Baseball Tonight Sucks, because that is rarely covered in the blogosphere.

2007-05-28T08:55:00.000-04:00

Memorial Day is traditionally known as the first checkpoint of the baseball season. Generally, it is a day to gather around the TV and debate the merits of these teams going forward. Well, unless you're Baseball Tonight, in which case you create some fucking retarded flag system to further schill for the Indy 500, which hasn't been relevant for at least 10 years.

Here is your Memorial Day story: The Yankees are dead according to every analyst on TV. Never mind that their third order winning percentage according to Baseball Prospectus is the second-best in the AL and the third-best in baseball. Never mind that Johnny Damon, Phillip Hughes, and every non-Andy Pettite pitcher has been injured so far this year. Never mind that half the lineup is off to a slow start. Never mind that it's easy to concoct a scenario which they win the Wild Card. Nope, they're dead.

Meanwhile, on said Baseball Tonight segment, Eduardo Perez gave the Twins a "Green Flag" (Brazil's?) because they were 11.5 out after two months last year, then went on a monster tear to take the division title away from Detroit.

Eduardo, this is silly. Three teams have come back from 10 game deficits since the Wild Card was "blessed" upon baseball. Those Twins, the 1995 Mariners, and the 2002 A's. By the logic you show here, I believe you think the Twins have a magic rock that keeps Tigers away.

Baseball Tonight is a show with only two types of predictions: the incredibly stupid and the incredibly easy. Steve Phillips thinks the Brewers might be in trouble because they have won 4 of their last 15. You sure about that, dude? Is the war in Iraq also going poorly Steve? I need your reassurance. John Kruk thinks the Red Sox may be headed to the playoffs? John, my computer table just broke into a hundred pieces, do you believe I have termites as well?

I know this would take away from Red Sox/Yankee Tonight, but maybe someone could create an argument about how the Braves can win the NL East? Will the Indians hold off the Tigers and Twins? Which team will take the burgeoning Padres/Diamondbacks/Dodgers race in the West?

No? Okay, cool. Well you kids let me know when you're relevant again. I'm gonna be getting my analysis from people who actually know how to analyze things till then. And you know, who talk about the rest of baseball.

PS: When you're done here check out my latest MetsGeek article

Yet Another Reason Why Politicans And Sports Don't Mix

2007-05-27T20:55:00.000-04:00

They're all the worst sort of mainstream, casual fan.

On Sunday, he explained further: "I've always been a Red Sox fan. But I said if I weren't running for president, I would like to be No. 7 — Mickey Mantle — playing center field for the New York Yankees.

"My favorite team has always been the Red Sox. I'm a Red Sox fan. End of session," he said." But, he added, "I'm also a Yankees fan."

After declaring his allegiance to both the Red Sox and the Yankees, Richardson joked: "This is the thing about me: I can bring people together. I can unify ... "

pandering asshole

I don't understand why politicians think they can get away with this crap. I hate the Yankees and Red Sox, and I'm angry with myself for contributing to any sort of discussion that focuses on The Two Teams In Baseball, but, seriously. Bill Richardson. What. The. Hell.

You just can't do this.

Especially these two teams. On the list of stupid things casual sports fans do, pulling the whole "I like BOTH rivals" nonsense ranks just behind realizing they've been lifetime fans miraculously at the same time that a given team experiences success and right ahead of every time they pull that, " That (Player X) guy (who is unfailingly like the best player on the team) is pretty great, how'd we get him again?"

Politicians, of course, are the worst sort when it comes to this, and Bill Richardson's display of casual fandom is just disgusting. It smacks of painfully typical politicking. "LOOK, I CAN APPEAL TO EVERYONE HEH HEH HEH" Shut the fuck up Bill Richardson and tell us your stance on gun control or something.

It's even worse that it's the Yankees and Red Sox. I mean when the mayor of Chicago proclaims he likes the White Sox and Cubs equally when they're playing because you can tell he doesn't give a shit about baseball and doesn't want to be bothered by it, you can let that slide. But for the governor of New Mexico, of all places, to proclaim both Yankees and Red Sox fandom is just entirely ridiculous. You can't do that. You just can't pick the two best teams in the league and then gleefully sing your love for both of them. Screw you if you think you can.

Jason Kendall Caught Billy Beane Sleeping With His Wife

2007-05-26T15:55:00.000-04:00

This is Jason Kendall's wife. You may not be able to tell from this particular photo, but she is very attractive.

This is Billy Beane. He continues to employ Jason Kendall, who is now slugging the Mendoza Line. Well, I lie. The actual Mendoza Line is designed to explode before anyone can slug it, taking the player with it, so as to save us all from having to watch such atrocious batting of the baseball. Unfortunately, Jason Kendall's man-rific beard stubble and grittiness somehow saved him where lesser veterans like Tony Womack and Neifi Perez perished.

Anyway, the only rational explanation for the fact that, in light of Jason Kendall's survival from the Mendoza Line's self-destruct feature and continued willingness to suck hard at baseball, Billy Beane allows him to take at bats for the A's every day is this:

Jason Kendall caught Billy Beane sleeping with his (rather attractive) wife, and Billy feels awful about it, and so allows Jason the one joy left to him, that being playing baseball.

I was gonna go further with this, and describe the pain it is to watch Kendall hopelessly ground out every at bat, or come up with a man on first because you know he's going to lightly tap it to second and initiate a double play, but, really, this is more Kendall than is necessary. Especially for a bored, throwaway mid-afternoon post that was more an excuse to make the dumb Mendoza Line joke than anything else. And even that was only made because the image of Jason Kendall's man-grizzle deflecting exploding flames and debris brings me delight, not because it's really any funny.

A Desperate Plea From Those Of Us With Knowledge Of Baseball Cards

2007-05-26T07:07:00.001-04:00

Here's a scene for you. Pay close attention.

We're in a card shop. Could be any card shop in America. Here's an exchange that I guarantee you happens once or twice a day.

Customer: Do you guys buy cards?
Owner: /sighs knowingly. Yeah, yeah we do. What do you have?
Customer: Oh, old stuff. Real old stuff. Big name players, too.
Owner: /sighs further. Can I take a look?
Customer: Yeah, sure, sure.
Owner: /looks.
Owner: /sighs once more.
Owner: Yeah, this is all late 80's/early 90's stuff. We can't really use any of this, we've already got a ton.
Customer: /begins to look worried. Well I've got a ton of em. I mean I could give em to you real cheap, everything I've got for 50 bucks.
Owner: No no, you see, we've got tons and tons of this stuff already. I've got a room in the back completely full of this stuff. Topps and those companies really overproduced their product in the 80's, and now pretty much everything from the era is worthless.
Customer: Well what about 20 bucks? I'll give you everything for 20 bucks.
Owner: /sighs, /rues this routine, /wonders where life went wrong.
Owner: I don't think you understand. If you left them here, for free, on my counter, I'd just give them to a kid or something. I have literally boxes, and boxes, and boxes of this stuff in the back. I'll never sell it all.
Customer: Oh...
Customer: You sure? I mean look here, Ryne Sandberg. Jose Canseco. Mark McGwire. Big stars, man.
Owner: Yeah, don't need anything like that.
Customer: (disappointedly) Well, alright. Thanks, I guess.

I work in a card shop, so every now and then I play the part of Owner in the above conversation, only without all the sighing, because my life doesn't involve owning a card shop and dealing with this on a thrice-daily basis. But to illustrate what I'm getting at, most people think that the stuff they'd pull out of a pack like the above 1984 Topps one is worth $20-$30 in total. The truth, is that the cards inside the above 1984 Topps pack are as likely to be worth anything as the 23 year old stick of gum that accompanies them.

I make this post as one makes a PSA. Because honestly, I think most people have no clue. People think their unopened factory sets of 1986 Topps are going to send their kids to college someday. I'm not exaggerating.

I have no clue where the perception that Baseball Cards = Trust Fund came from, but. Well, I lie. I know where it came from. It came from a number of people discovering around the mid 80's that their childhood baseball card collections from 20 and 30 years prior were now worth hundreds if not thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. And so then a whole shitload of people bought up baseball cards like they were gold bricks and shelved them away thinking that 20 or 30 years (i.e. now) down the road they could make fortunes. Unfortunately, what nobody stopped to think about was that the whole reason the cards from the 50's and 60's were worth so much was because nobody had them anymore. All the children of the 50's with baseball cards went to college in the 70's and their parents tossed em. Created rarity and the like. Nobody did that with the 80's and 90's cards. Everybody's kept em locked away in mint condition waiting for the time to be ripe.

I do hate to be a burster of bubbles, but unless an extreme amount of people start getting extremely frustrated and/or 1980's Topps cards become a popular alternative to firewood, that time of ripetitude will never come to pass, because there are billions, if not trillions, of 80's cards out there just sitting around.

I make grab boxes for our card shop, where we toss 90% 80's/90's fodder into a box and mix it with 10% stuff from the last five years to keep people entertained with a crapton of cards for a cheap price. For about the past year and a half or so, I've been working on a pile of 1990 Juan Bell Upper Deck rookie cards, inserting 1 into each grab box I make. I started out at like 125 or something, I think I'm down into the 30's. The point of that little anecdote is this: 125 1990 Upper Deck Juan Bell rookie cards. First, who the hell is Juan Bell? Second, that's just his Upper Deck card. Just from 1990. That doesn't take into account the like four other brands that were making cards at the time, nor does it take into account that in the back room I like to frequently mention there's probably another 500 Juan Bell cards stashed away in a dusty box under four other boxes that consist entirely of those stupid yellow Fleer cards from 1991 or whenever.

So, because I'm nice, I've prepared a little primer:

:

Gold mine. Congrats. There are few of this nature in existence and people will pay top dollar for even common cards from this era, in any condition.

:

Worth a little bit. These are the 50's/60's variety. Stars like Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle or Hank Aaron will draw large cash amounts. Common cards will draw smaller sums like $4 or $5 a card.

:

Worthless. You know how they've annihilated the rain forests in South America? That was to make baseball cards in the 80's. Whole thing. Junior Felix rookie cards alone account for one missing chunk the size of California.

The late 90's and early turn-of-this-century brought us the autograph and jersey card. At first this was innovative and made for top dollar cards (the first jersey card insert set featured Tony Gwynn, Ken Griffey Jr, and Rey Ordonez, if my memory serves me correct. I'm not looking it up. Anyway, the Rey Ordonez still sells for like $40 or $50.) But now, rest assured, those are pretty much worthless too, unless it's got a low serial numbering or the card features a big name player.

In short, my desperate plea:

Sorry, your baseball cards are worthless. Accept this with as little pain as possible.

The Future Considerations Mock NBA Draft--Lottery

2007-05-25T10:19:00.000-04:00

Lets get this out of the way:

1) Portland Trailblazers - Greg Oden, C, Ohio State

credit: u. texas photos
2) Seattle Supersonics - Kevin Durant, PF, Texas

That concludes the easy portion of our draft, and I'll start patting myself on the back for this right now. There is no reason for a team with LaMarcus Aldridge to take Kevin Durant over a true natural center like Oden.

The bigger fallout of these two picks is what the long-term effects will be on the roster. For Portland, Zach Randolph looks like a lock to be dealt. Not only is his motivation in question, but he has a huge contract and despite how good he is, Blazers management seems disenchanted. And if you are looking to deal him for sixty cents on the dollar, Kevin Pritchard, may I suggest you look no further than the Houston Rockets? Rafer Alston can sit behind Jarret Jack and play his true role of 12 minute point guard, Juwan Howard can be the consumate role model and all-around good guy while used in a bench role, John Lucas can be your third point guard for when you realize Rafer Alston sucks (Warning: strategy may not work if you employ Jeff Van Gundy), and Vassilis Spanoulis was given a raw deal and may yet be a decent combo guard in the league. You can have those four and we'll take Randolph and Dan Dickau's contract. Probably not a deal that goes down without the Rockets throwing in their first/future first round pick, which I'd wait to see who they sign with their MLE before committing to that; this is a deep draft. However, it would give the Rockets the third great player that they need to truly compete with San Antonio and Dallas.

Rockets wet dream ideas aside, what about to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson? The Nets have clearly proven that they can't get over the hump with the personnel they have available, Randolph can still run a little and would give them the big man they need to win those half-court battles that are the standard with Detroit and Chicago in the picture. Meanwhile, Jefferson and Brandon Roy would be a solid pair of slashers and compliments to Oden and Aldridge down low, with Jarret Jack running the action.

As for the Sonics, the Durant deal "forces" them into a backload too. After re-signing Chris Wilcox last summer, the team has Wilcox and Nick Collison at the forward, and three consecutive first round projects at center with Mouhamad Sene, Goofy Robert Swift, and Johan Petro. Finding a taker for an above-average but not outstanding talent like Wilcox could be hard this offseason, especially considering what a big year it is for size in the draft, with most of the projected lottery picks as of now being over 6'8. Seattle may have to settle for dangling one of the project centers to clear up roster space.

credit: chinafoto press
3) Atlanta Hawks - Yi Jianlian, PF, Guangdong Tigers
I've seen a ton of mocks already where Mike Conley Jr gets picked here, but I'm betting on Billy Knight's scouting to win out. The Hawks are at the same point as they were last season, they have a ton of good perimeter slashers, no point guard, and no inside game. Marvin Williams, the consensus best talent of the NBA Draft in 2005, put up a very mediocre 12.31 PER last year, and was so timid on the glass that you couldn't even really call him a power forward. While Shelden Williams showed some promise, you have to factor in that ultimately he looks like a monkey and is already 38. With two very stellar American power forwards still on the board in Al Horford and Brandan Wright, I expect Knight to go off the board and select Jianlian. Part of this is due to his history with overseas first rounders (Gasol and Diaw), and part of this is due to the fact that I don't think Yi is the best player on the board, and therefore am expecting the Hawks to blunder.

While I do think there is a chance the Hawks will fall for Conley Jr, Billy Knight's experiences with drafting the best player available makes me feel that at best, they will trade down to get him. I'm not sure who they'll be able to trade down with because 3-9 in this draft are so closely knit that theres no real difference in the slot valuation.

4) Memphis Grizzlies - Joakim Noah, PF/C, Florida
While this may be a bit of a reach, it's not like Jerry West isn't known for going against the grain. The Grizzlies were the worst defensive team in basketball last year, and while Noah may only be a above-average player on offense, he is shot-blocking machine. Not only that, but he's one of the few big men who actually create steals, and he's a terrific rebounder, both offensively and defensively. If he came out after the first title, he would have been a Top 3 pick easily. I think Noah has contracted the dreaded Brady Quinn syndrome (As far as how he got it: Don't Ask, Don't Tell), where the more we see of someone, the more faults we find. I expect Jerry West to look past this.

Also, I've backspaced over about 300 different WNBA/We Got Next/New Franchise in Memphis/Accutane jokes for the last five minutes to fill this space, so lets just move on.

credit: robert willett, act
5) Boston Celtics - Brandan Wright, PF, North Carolina

As if they weren't screwed enough by the lottery (not that I'm crying for them), the Celtics wind up in the mock with the two top players on the board playing the same position as their second-best player, Al Jefferson. The Celtics are a tough team to pick for; they have a ton of young talent on the roster already, but none of it has stuck enough to become really great other than Pierce or Jefferson. Delonte West and Rajon Rondo have both shown flashes at the point, Ryan Gomes is a solid backup forward, Gerald Green could be a franchise player down the line. What they don't have is big men other than Jefferson, as Kendrick Perkins was found wanting most of the year and Theo Ratliff has been deceased since the end of President Bush's first term.

Given these circumstances, the Celtics are pretty much forced into Horford or Wright, and I give the edge to Wright based mainly on his youth (which Ainge has clearly coveted in past drafts). The Celtics could also look to move the pick, but in the end I think that they'll end up deciding that theres no established star that makes them an actual contender in the East for trade and settle for Wright.

credit: jon beiver, SI
6) Milwaukee Bucks - Mike Conley Jr., PG, Ohio State

The Bucks are in quite a quandry, as they have Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut in the key as young average players who have the potential to leap forward, with Bobby Simmons coming back from surgery this year and Dan Gadzuric also capable of providing average play in the post. They're one of the few teams in the draft that truly have little to gain from drafting big.

The Bucks also got solid offensive play from their guards last year, but finished second-to-last in the NBA in eFG% allowed and Defensive Efficiency. Given these circumstances, one could construct a pretty good argument for Corey Brewer, but the Bucks big problem last year was staying healthy. Only two players played more than 68 games for them, and Villanueva and Bogut missed much of last season, which left opposing slashers with nobody to stop them in the paint.

Conley Jr doesn't solve any of these problems, but I have the feeling he'll be reached for here based on Maurice Williams impending free agency. The Bucks will let their two young big men get on the court at the same time and see what they have before they try to fix problems that may not exist. Conley was a stellar distributor last year, and could be a very capable point guard in the Rod Strickland mold for the Bucks.

credit: Jimmy DeFlippo/US PRESSWIRE
7) Sacramento Kings* - Al Horford, PF, Florida

With the very last elite power forward prospect in the hands of the T-Wolves, who are mired in the throes of the "We Can't Trade Kevin Garnett" era, I expect a trade. Kevin McHale has frequently done this in past drafts, trading down from Ray Allen to Stephon Marbury and last year trading down from Brandon Roy to Randy Foye.

Now the logical pick to trade up would be the Philadelphia 76ers, who started Joe Smith at power forward for most of the second half of the season. However, trying to come up with a trade involving Kevin McHale and Billy King is like trying to make a sandwich out of bread, jalapenos, mustard, and lettuce; entirely too confusing to even attempt. The Kings decline last year, while popularly blamed on Mike Bibby, also had a lot to do with Shareef Abdur-Rahim growing old and Brad Miller being injured much of the year. Horford injects some new life into their frontcourt, and lets set the cost of moving up at the #10 pick, Francisco Garcia, and a future 2nd rounder. Garcia's not actually any good, but this is Kevin McHale we're talking about.

credit: Jason Parkhurst, US Presswire
8) Charlotte Bobcats - Corey Brewer, SF, Florida

The Bobcats essentially get their pick of the big three small forwards in Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, and Julian Wright. Adam Morrison was a huge disappointment last year and Gerald Wallace is a free agent on the wing. I look for the Bobcats to make a big splash...

*wait for it*

...by signing former Tar Heel Vince Carter. And while I don't think they'll give up on Morrison just like that, Corey Brewer will be brought in to fill the defensive specialist role that Wallace had been in charge of. I project Brewer over Green for two reasons. 1) Championship Pedigree, Michael Jordan likes. 2) Why bring in Green if you're already committing to Carter? Between Green, Morrison, and Carter, there wouldn't be enough shots to go around. Brewer doesn't have much of a chance of becoming a star, but he's a terrific role player in the Shane Battier mold.

credit: Mitchell Layton, SI
~~9) Minnesota Timberwolves, Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown~~
9) Chicago Bulls, Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown

It's not too late, McHale! You can still get a S/T'ed Nocioni, this pick, Ty Thomas, and probably another future first rounder for KG. Have a heart man!

Okay, back to reality. The Bulls need offense? Green can provide it. He's not the low post threat they'd like, but Ty Thomas is still developing and could become that in the near future. With the Bulls likely to let Nocioni go, Green could take his spot in the rotation and provide another reliable scoring option along with Ben Gordon and Luol Deng on the perimeter. While they'd probably rather have someone with more of an ability to penetrate, that player just isn't available at this point in the draft.

credit: mcdonaldsallamerican.com
10) Minnesota Timberwolves, Spencer Hawes, C, Washington

The Timberwolves have a choice here that essentially boils down to Acie Law vs. Hawes. Both positions are sore spots for the Timberwolves, with veterans Mike James and Mark Blount manning the positions and little in the wings. Conventional NBA wisdom values size, and while McHale's history makes me think it's something like a 50/50 for him (he opted for Roy over Patrick O'Bryant, which is about the same difference between Law and Hawes in my opinion), I'm going to go ahead and put him down for Hawes.

Hawes main plusses are his youth, size, and shot-blocking. Like any other project center, his offensive game isn't fully developed yet, but scout-speak blah blah jumper.

This guy is the next Todd Fuller. Count on it.

credit: AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian
11) Atlanta Hawks - Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M

I already set most of this up in their first pick, but the Hawks are still regretting not picking Chris Paul and have been rightly slammed for it. While I'm tempted to give them Julian Wright and just laugh at them, lets just say Billy Knight gets lucky and picks the first credible point guard the franchise has had since they got rid of Jason Terry.

I could also see a scenario where Knight trades up one spot to get Law and the Timberwolves keep Hawes. The good old Cash Considerations trade may come into effect here.

credit: mark j. terrill/ap
12) Philadelphia 76ers - Julian Wright, SF, Kansas

The big faller of the round lands in Billy King's lap; Billy King immediately attempts to sign him to a 7 year/$90 million contract until David Stern explains that theres a slot system for first round picks.

Wright is listed as a small forward, but he plays so much like a power forward that I think that might end up being his NBA position; he's a terrific rebounder, and he even blocks a good share of shots. Either way, it's a big coup to get him here for the 76ers.

13) New Orleans Hornets - Nick Young, SG/SF, USC

Just as the real quality prospects end, the teams that don't need much help start popping up. The Hornets glaring need is at the slasher position: after Peja Stojakovic went down for the year, Desmond Mason was forced to shoulder more of the load and ended up not being very good at carrying an NBA offense. Peja will come back this year to shoulder some of the offense, but the Hornets could definitely use another NBA-quality shooter.

Enter Young, who shouldered the majority of the load for the surprising Sweet 16 Trojans that knocked off Kevin Durant's Longhorns. He's a terrific three point shooter, he can drive to the hoop. He won't contribute much defensively, but Tyson Chandler and David West have got his back there and the Hornets can always dig Stacey Augmon's bones up if they need a defensive specialist.

An alternate selection here would be Rudy Fernandez, but given that the Hornets have never selected a foreign player in the first round, I see it as more likely that they'll stay comfortable and take Young.

credit: john guthrie/gtech publications
14) Los Angeles Clippers - Thaddeus Young, SF, Georgia Tech

The Clippers big problem last year was that they just weren't very efficient at putting the ball in the hoop; they finished 24th in the NBA in eFG and only had two players in the Top 100. While Fernandez would be the more NBA ready pick, the Clippers have always favored promise over performance, lest you forget that Yaroslav Korolev is still on their bench somewhere.

Young may yet develop into a consistent scoring threat; he certainly has the talent to do so. A comparison that DraftExpress throws out as best case would be Antawn Jamison.

State of the FC

2007-05-25T07:37:00.000-04:00

Getting our own Deadspin post has enlarged our egos and made us more apt to post more. By this, I mean it made me more apt to post more. I dunno about the rest of these chumpettes.

Also, we've been traded to the Chiefs for Lawrence Tynes. I personally always saw us as a blocking tight end so I hope Jason Dunn knows we are gunning for his ass.

In The Time It Takes Me To Write This Another Oakland Athletic Will Get Injured

2007-05-24T16:55:00.000-04:00

Come, take a trip with me, a trip to a harrowing and dangerous place.....to the Oakland Athletics 40 man roster!

The Oakland Athletics 40 man roster is a place where no sane man wants to go, for he is assured the most gruesome of pulled hamstrings upon arriving. 1 in every 4 Oakland Athletic 40 man roster spot holders succumb to such a fate.

Let's take a look, shall we?:

RP Justin Duchscherer, 15 days
SP Rich Harden, 15 days
SP Esteban Loaiza, 60 days
RP Huston Street, 15 days
OF Milton Bradley, 15 days
OF Chris Denorfia, 60 days
OF Bobby Kielty, 60 days
OF Mark Kotsay, 60 days
OF Chris Snelling, 15 days
DH Mike Piazza, 15 days

Take a moment to bemoan the unfortunate fate befallen on these poor Oakland Athletics souls.

i used paint. on a laptop. there is slack to be cut.

This not even takes into account the lucky few who have returned from the horrors of the DL and other various nagging ailments, such as OF Nick Swisher, OF Travis Buck, 1B Dan Johnson, 3B Eric Chavez (the next likeliest candidate to rank himself amongst the DL-bound).

As such, trouble is afoot in the town of Oak, where Hiram Bocachica has been seen to start in center field, Colby Lewis has made a start, and Alan Embree has been annointed closer. The fair Athletics sit 4 games behind the tyrannical Angels.

Praise be to the heavens, however, for the beloved hero Jason Kendall and his mighty .192 batting average and .205 slugging percentage still stand tall and healthy. His manly grizzle will lead us on.

heroic grizzle

Eh, I tried too hard. Point is it's gonna take a miracle for us to beat the Angels if we keep accumulating injuries like this. (And not just injuries to random dudes. Like if Jay Witasick went down, that'd be dandy. But no, it's not Jay Witasick. It's Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer.) I didn't believe in miracles and then the Warriors up and pulled one off so now DO I BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? YES AL MICHAELS I SORTA DO.

RIP ESPN Classic

2007-05-24T07:11:00.000-04:00

Once upon a time there was a network created to broadcast amazing feats of the past, sports moments that boggled the human mind; this was called ESPN Classic. Many portions of the internet are now devoted to thrashing the Worldwide Leader, but rarely do we get past SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight to realize just how deep this epidemic goes.

Classic is a funny word. Theres the ancient part of the meaning, the recognized authority/excellence. The word Classic is even just a take off of Class. Classy networks, defined elegance and style. With this in mind, ESPN Classic would broadcast old games like Game 5 of the 1969 World Series, the 73 series, This Week In Baseball. They'd show some classic NBA games from the Jordan eras, the short shorts, Magic playing in the All-Star Game after he had AIDS. Memories of simpler, greater times for many fans.

So together, we're going to go over the ESPN Classic Schedule for today, Thursday the 24th, and see what a bunch of Classic moments America gets to reminisce about today.

6:00 AM: Classic's Vintage NBA: Bernard King.
Bernard King was one of the most underrated players of his era, and this thirty minute clip will inform the viewer of this through the words of his contemporaries, Robin Roberts, and possibly Bill Walton under the guise that he thinks he is talking about Kareem.
Classic Scale (1-10): 6.3

7:00 AM: 1995 $50,000 Challenge Of Champions
Looking this up on my Time Warner guide, I can see that it is Pool. I like to think of myself as a fan of obscure history. I can't name a single men's pool player (although I think if I remember my trick shot history, one of them is named Massey? Messey?), and the only woman I can remember is that Asian girl who they tried to make a sex icon out of when she was only moderately attractive. Still, you have to give ESPN credit: 1995 was definitely a while ago.
Classic Scale (1-10): 1.8

8:00 AM: 2006 PBA US Open
Okay so this happened last year. I'm a bowling advocate. Maybe it had a really great finish. Wikipedia informs me that bowling uses the NBA-esque two year season, so this really could be one of two finals, the 14 pin win by Tommy Jones in 2005-2006, or the 6 point Pete Weber win in 2006-2007. Judging by ESPN standards (EVERYTHING MUST BE IN ALL CAPS TO MAKE A POINT), I'm guessing this is the latter. In which case, there is in fact, nothing classic about a middle-aged douchebag psychopath in the midst of his crisis wearing see-through aviators and screaming things at the camera.
Classic Scale (1-10): The Macarena

9:00 AM: 2004 World Series Of Poker presented by Miller High Life.
Look, I even admit I like poker. I like watching poker. This is neither classic nor a sport. We get it, Norman Chad has problems staying married. Poker is a game you can get lucky at. Poker players sometimes are douches. Good TV. Not a sport, not classic.
Classic Scale (1-10): A VHS copy of Monkeybone

10:00 AM: NHRA Slick 50 Nationals.
(Looks out window)
Yep, theres a car driving.
Classic Scale (1-10): The Camouflage Padres uniforms.

11:00 AM: 2006 PBA Denny's Championships
Okay, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the US Open. Dennys? Dennys?
Classic Scale (1-10): Chris Kattan.

12:00 PM: Madden Nation
You know, this show excites me because they give nicknames to fat people who play video games. As much fun as it is to see college dropouts shout "POP POP POP" at opponents with names like Duka or The Problem Child or whatever Bill Simmons' friends name themselves these days, couldn't we just watch the actual sports in question?
Classic Scale (1-10): Any Simpsons episode penned by Ian-Maxtone Graham.

12:30 PM: Streetball: The And 1 Mix Tour Presented by Mountain Dew
If I had any ability with video editing, I would combine clips of Vince Carter's only showing in the NBA Dunk Contest with clips of TV Funhouse's The Baby, The Immigrant, and The Guy On Mushrooms sketches. Because that is every Streetball show.
Classic Scale (1-10): Virtual Boy

1:00 PM: 1995 Orange Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Miami Hurricanes
Okay, I'm not a college football fan but I'll let this slide. Lawrence Phillips and Tommie Frazier led Nebraska to a comeback win that sated Nebraska students and boosters for all of 3 years.
Classic Scale (1-10): 6.8

3:00 PM: 1988 First Union 400
I'm getting more and more freaked out by this racing thing. I googled this and discovered that there was pro-racing reference and was scared. Not only does this tell you who won, but the user comments talk about it being a terrific comeback win for Terry Bobby or Petty or whoever. Isn't Daytona the only race that really matters though? Can it really be classic if it's just some hum-drum event in the middle of NASCAR's season? Do they even have a season?
Classic Scale (1-10): 1.9 (it did happen awhile ago, and I guess it's a little bit more of a sport than pool.)

5:00 PM: Stump The Schwab
Stump The Schwab? Stump the Schwab?

*furrows brows*

~~More like Stump The Blob~~ ~~Schwab ate all Stuart Scott's turkey because Stuart Scott see his entire plate~~ ~~Stump The Schwab was a game show that involved sports knowledge that was very entertaining!11!~~

You know what, lets just move on.

WAIT SCHWAB CAN'T MOVE ON BECAUSE HE'S ENORMOUS!

get it because he is very fat and

Fuck it.
Classic Scale (1-10): The Republic of Montenegro

6:00 PM: American Gladiators

One day, when I get rich, I'm going to attach the Tennis Ball Cannon on the side of my car and shoot old people with it. So turn up your hearing aid for this, Morris Albernathy of Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Don't get your prescriptions filled after 6:30 PM or your ass is grass.
Classic Scale (1-10): 30

7;00 PM: 1996 Lennox Lewis vs. Ray Mercer
Ray Mercer? Didn't the Celtics draft him?
Classic Scale (1-10): 2.38

8:00 PM: 2005 World Series Of Poker presented by Milwaukee's Best Light
Lon: Well, it's time for our all-in moment of the match
Norm: This guy is almost as big of a dog as my wife
Lon: *polite chuckle* OHHH ITS A CARD I KNEW WAS COMING! [POPULAR PLAYER} IS ELIMINATED.
Norm: You hate to go out like that. My wife threw me out once when the odds were in my favor.
Classic Scale (1-10): Tim Hardaway Jokes

9:00 PM: Top 5 Reasons Why You Can't Blame Matt Leinart For Returning For His Senior Season At USC.
Here, let me take a crack at them:
1) Knocking up a women's basketball player (impressive feat given the odds of a women's basketball player wanting to touch a penis).
2) Got to experience how overrated Paris Hilton's body was in person instead of just watching it in night vision.
3) Basically did whatever the fuck he wanted to.
4) Participated in one of the greatest games in college football history, which he sadly lost.
5) Moved up from throwing to Arnaz Battle and Antonio Bryant to throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

There, saved you 30 minutes.

Classic Rating (1-10): Eagle Eye Cherry

9:30 PM: Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame Chamberlain For Losing To Russell
...Russell's team was better?

Classic Rating (1-10): 0.3

10:00 PM: Dodge Xtreme Bulls Tour presented by B&W Trailer Hitches.
B&W Trailer Hitches sounds like an advertisement from UHF.

Nothing says I love you like a trailer hitch,

Classic Rating (1-10): Those Fast Forward The Clock uniforms that baseball teams loved to wear in 1998.

11:00 PM: Courtney Burton vs. Emanuel Burton Augustus (2004)
Nothing like closing out the day with a grudge match between these two over the name Burton. There hasn't been an intense rivalry like this since Rene and Marcel Lachemann did a hot dog eating contest for the rights to interim manage the 1998 Expos.

A NEW CHALLENGER HAS APPEARED

Nah I'm just yankin' your chain, the two fight and neither of them are champions and it's not really classic at all. A fitting end to the day.

Classic Rating (1-10): Arli$$ rerun. Wait thats on ESPN Classic too.

I hope our trip down memory lane taught you that it's not just the regular ESPN gigs that are being messed up: it's a company wide dilemma. Also I hope I made you start singing "Save Tonight" to yourself, because if I have to remember it, then you're all going down with me.

Yep, Still Colby Lewis

2007-05-23T16:09:00.000-04:00

Colby Lewis made a start for the A's yesterday as we continue our merry-go-round of 5th starters. Dallas Braden, the de facto 5th starter as of late, was, despite fair-ish K/9 and K/BB numbers and awesome ability to throw a screwball, passed up for Lewis, who was looking pretty decent at Sacramento.

And so he got his call. And so he made his start.

one, done

And so we remembered he was Colby Lewis. 3.1 IP, 0 Ks, 2 BBs, 12 H, 10 ER, 2 HR. But besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play?

Lenny Dinardo did a fine patchjob, inasmuch as a 10 run game can be patched. He went 4 2/3, struck out 3, walked 1, and allowed none. He's had a pretty fine season so far. It's mostly been mostly mop up work, but he's got a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings. He apparently can go five innings, mixes a fair assortment of breaking stuff, and can deal pretty consistently in the high 80's. He's also left handed, so if that doesn't scream "average fifth starter" at you like it does me, you need to pay attention to more teams' fifth starters.

Other developments from yesterday's game: Marco Scutaro, back above the Mendoza Line. Jason Kendall, still hopelessly below it.

Also don't look now, but Bobby Crosby is an acceptable offensive shortstop again! .260/.309/.409. .718 OPS! Hell, he's better than Eric Chavez. Sorry Bobby, I was wrong to deride you as the worst player in baseball. That title can be safely given to the aformentioned Chavez now.

(p.s. Rich Harden please come back soon and have a few nice starts so we can trade you away for somebody who's arm won't fall off after every 6 starts.)

A liveblog of the liveblog contributor Dan St. Pierre was supposed to give last night

2007-05-23T14:00:00.000-04:00

8:48 PM: AHHHHHH AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

9:05 PM: Sends text message: "I'm going to kill myself" to Chris' phone.

9:06 PM: Chris emulates this photo:

Don't you worry about Planet Express, let me worry about Blank.

2007-05-22T14:08:00.000-04:00

Photo Credit AP-Rusty Kennedy

Jeff Van Gundy is out; Rick Adelman is in.

I know I'm the kind of guy who denigrates "clutchness" and "intangibles", but simply put, it seems to be an exchange of two style with two coaches who have never been able to take their team over the hump.

Rockets fans are excited for the end of the Van Gundy era. Nobody liked watching his boring grind-it-out 90's Knicks style of basketball. Adelman brings the stylistic change, but, as much as I hate to boil it down to one thing; Van Gundy and Adelman own a grand total of 0 rings. Van Gundy choked away a 2-0 lead in the first round each of the last two years, Adelman presided over two of the great small city dynasties of the past 20 years, the early 90's Blazers and the early 00's Kings, and could never lead them past Jordan or Shaq.

Van Gundy's career winning percentage is .575, Adelman's is .610. Van Gundy's playoff winning percentage is .506, Adelman's is .507.

How much of this is the coach and how much of it is the players? I have never seen the coach as all that important in terms of team success, at least at the professional level, where the most terrible coaches have obviously been weeded out. I think your main goal as a coach is to not to screw up, and I also believe that there are a few very special coaches that make things better. In the NBA I might limit that list to Phil Jackson, Larry Brown when he gave a damn, and maybe Popovich. I guess you can throw in youthful Pat Riley, although I wouldn't do that now.

Stylistically, Adelman has never run a team that finished out of the Top 10 in Pace Factor, a stat designed to show how many possessions per game a team averages. How he's able to integrate Yao into this system is going to be the key factor for success. McGrady and Battier can run, Alston and Head might actually become better players when they run (less time for them to carelessly turn the ball over), but for Yao it may be an adjustment as Van Gundy has always used him in the box, and he's had problems with fatigue in the past.

That said, we can talk about offensive philosophy all we want, but all the Rockets did was exchange one high-tenured adequate coach for another. It's not the worst thing in the world; we could have hired someone completely incompetent. But it's not news that really matters.

Boooring

2007-05-20T07:22:00.000-04:00

Remember when the NBA was supposed to have made that shift to favor high-scoring teams that are fun to watch? Remember when the Golden State Warriors proved you can win with smallball? Remember when Jon Raymond still wrote about things like that here?

You couldn't have given a blander, less exciting final four for me. The Jazz are probably the most exciting team left, and it would be funny if the Rockets took the eventual NBA champions to a Game 7, but I can't in good conscious root for any team that harbors Mehmet Okur. While you were reading that sentence, he just got called for a foul and cried about it.

Already crying about not getting the call in mid-shot.

On the other hand, the Spurs have always been one of the dominant teams I've never really had a problem with, except for Manu Ginobli, who takes after Okur in flopping/crying prowess. But the Spurs already have three Duncan-era titles, and another one validates the defense-first philosophy that so bores NBA viewers.

Their likely opponent in the finals, the Detroit Pistons, also exemplify this. We've already seen this series before. It wasn't particularly exciting. The Pistons had the slowest pace in the NBA, while the Spurs had the fourth-slowest. The Jazz are the highest of the remaining teams, right in the middle of the pack in pace. Does this mean I'm rooting for Utah? Would I root for Utah? Can the league survive Carlos Boozer as NBA Finals MVP? Ye Gods, what a nightmare scenario.

Oh, and the Cavaliers are still technically alive too. Don't say that too loudly though, you'll wake them up from their season-long nap. They might have had the easiest path to the conference finals in NBA history, beating up on a Arenas-less Wizards team and the worst Nets team in recent memory. I expect the somewhat less mediocre Pistons to trounce them in 5-6 games. I like the Spurs to take the Jazz in 6-7.

I'll be watching something else at that point though. I've ~~seen~~ ~~watched high--~~ heard about NASCAR races that were less predictable and monotonous than the result of another Pistons/Spurs NBA Finals.

Bill Simmons; Yankee fan.

2007-05-12T16:13:00.000-04:00

Quoted from yesterdays Bill Simmons mailbag:

Q: Everyone outside of New York and Boston thinks Yankees and Red Sox fans are the same exact person living in two different cities. I see no difference at all between the two fan bases. You are both loud, obnoxious, have ridiculous accents, put stupid pressure on your players, spend money to the point it makes the game unfair, spend way too much money on Japanese pitchers and think your city is far superior to everywhere else's. Am I missing something?
--Josh, Tampa, Fla.

SG: Yeah, you're missing the part where we root for teams that win 95-100 games every year and finish 30 games ahead of the Devil Rays. You left that out.

******************************************************

If anything, Josh didn't go far enough. One of the cardinal statutes of baseball over the last few years has become the idea that Major League Baseball consists of two teams: The Yankees and Red Sox. Certainly with their local cable networks and broad population bases they would end up with a ton of fans anyway, and the Yankees would draw in more with their still-recent World Series titles and rich winning tradition. However, the fact remains that the ESPN-ization of these two franchises has made it impossible to get away from them, and this in turn generates them even more fans. Unless something insane happens or they are playing on the West Coast, they usually lead Baseball Tonight. SportsCenter? Same thing, really.

It's all a big cycle with an easy conclusion: ESPN is the Red Sox and Yankees. While they have competitors, ESPN is able to win more viewers and put its name out in the marketplace more than say, FSN. ESPN pats themselves on the back (see: ESPY's), but fails to care about the long-term growth of the product as much as they care about appeasing the bottom line. So why would they talk about teams other than the most popular?

Red Sox/Yankee fanbase (high population) + ESPN viewers (high population) -> Obscene amount of Red Sox/Yankee propaganda on ESPN = Even more people watching ESPN, even more people becoming Red Sox/Yankee fans.

I'm not even arguing that it's a bad move for either side, tossing aside any hopes for an idealistic version of baseball (While you were reading that last sentence, Bud Selig was trying to find idealistic in the dictionary): This has helped to make all three franchises the most popular in their sport, at the cost of a bunch of internet keyboard jockeys taking shots at them. As Family Guy once taught us, (Selig just found idealistic; he's laughing at me now) the price of our souls is 8.4 million dollars a week.

Heres the thing though: Bill Simmons, in his day, has probably written hundreds of anti-Yankee pieces about how they outspend everyone. I'd look them up for you if I had ESPN Insider or cared to wade through his crying. Every Red Sox fan who has been a fan for more than the last 5-7 years has done the same thing. Sometime over the last 2-3 years though (think: World Series), the Red Sox hit Malcolm Gladwell's tipping point and went from being the strongest Yankee competitor in the eyes of Yankee-haters to simply being the Yankees.

You'd think long-term Red Sox fans like Mr. Simmons would understand where Josh from Tampa is coming from. Either Simmons doesn't, or Simmons doesn't care. The ends have begun to justify the means for Red Sox fans. Remember that whole argument Red Sox fans used to lead about how X homegrown players are key parts of the Yankee dynasty? And the answer was Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. Well, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis are the only three players on the Red Sox active roster who were originally drafted and developed by the Red Sox, and I'd say as a whole those three have meant much less than those four. Theres your true team of mercenaries.

And Bill Simmons' response to this question? Classic Yankee fan answer.

Stephen Jackson Is Good For Basketball

2007-05-09T20:30:00.000-04:00

I must admit, I find it hilarious to imagine David Stern sitting in his office, receiving news of this, and actually being relieved.

mortified

Jackson is the very personification of the "thug" image Stern hates with such vitriol, the image he works with such vigor and zeal to eradicate from the NBA.

And yet now Jackson is in the heretofore alien position of being good for the NBA. He's one of the key components on the franchise that's sweeping the nation by storm, making people care about the first two rounds of the playoffs, and stealing the concept of cinderella from the college ranks for a moment and lending it to the NBA.

The Warriors being successful is good for basketball, if only because it's now all too apparent that we have a fan base that's one of, if not the, best in basketball, not only in terms of quality, but in terms of quantity too. The Warriors are the unique Bay Area team that can truly appeal to the whole of the Bay Area. No A's/Giants, Raiders/49ers split. And if the Warriors are good for basketball, and Stephen Jackson is good for the Warriors, then Stephen Jackson is good for basketball.

Can you imagine the devastation of basketball fans everywhere if Stephen Jackson had to miss this series because of his legal troubles? Without considering the larger social implications involved with equal justice and the like (because, let's be fair, Stephen Jackson has hardly been the most upstanding of citizens, and he hardly deserves preferential legal treatment over anybody else), the Warriors deserve to prove they're not for real with the whole team on the floor. Thankfully they'll be allowed that.

Stephen Jackson, good for basketball. I generally like David Stern, but it's amusing to think of him having to chew on that one.

Ivan Basso, Barry Bonds. Barry Bonds, Ivan Basso.

2007-05-08T17:12:00.000-04:00

Ivan Basso is apparently a Spanish cycling champ who, like seemingly every other freaking cyclist in the world, is sorting out his own PED issues.

And I just want to quote the first part of this here, straight, uninterrupted.

Giro d'Italia champion Ivan Basso denied doping but said Tuesday he "attempted" to do so, an admission that comes one day after he acknowledged his involvement in the Spanish drug scandal.

Basso said he made contact with a doctor at the center of the case, Eufemiano Fuentes, and gave him a blood sample with the intention of doping — but never actually did.

"I have admitted attempted doping only," Basso said at a news conference. "I've never taken any doping substance nor undergone any illegal blood transfusions."

How awesome is that. It's so much better than, "I didn't knowingly take steroids." It's profound genius in the field of artistic cheating. It's excuse making at its finest.

To be fair to Ivan, though, he did manage to do what no other prominent American busted roider has done so far, which is, you know, admit your mistake and apologize. Like rational people normally do.

"It was a moment of weakness on my part," Basso said. "I accept responsibility and I am ready to face my punishment."

See, now why can't Barry Bonds just say something like that? I guarantee if he had people wouldn't be all up in arms over his impending topple of the home run record. Hell, it worked for Jason Giambi and he didn't even really apologize. Just sorta, hinted, at an apology.

Asked why he had not confessed earlier, Basso responded: "Better late than never."

See, Barry. Better late than never. Go on. You too, Rafael Palmeiro. And, you know, all those other guys who have pretty much been convicted in the court of public opinion by hearsay. Just let all out.

I Don't Want To Hear It, Eric Chavez

2007-05-08T16:59:00.000-04:00

Well, at least now we know Eric Chavez won't let things like "reasonable expectations" get him down.

Look, normally I like to hear this kind of stuff out of a baseball player. God knows it'd do A-Rod well to take a similar approach.

The difference, though, between A-Rod and Eric Chavez, is that A-Rod hits well, while Eric Chavez hasn't had an OPS above .800 since 2004.

"I'm fine with the criticism. There have been times I've been disappointed about it, because in your own town, you want people to approve of what you're doing on the field and we've had some pretty great teams. But I understand that criticism comes with the game, and it's a small price to pay for the luxuries we enjoy."

"I've come to grips with it. I'm a pretty darn good player."

Where's the fire there? Where's the hunger? Why, Eric, are you fucking pleased with your .236/.291/.390 line so far? That's not "pretty darn good," Eric. That's "fucking terrible." Especially when you consider that you're making 11 million dollars a season to be the cornerstone not only of our offense, but our entire franchise. We chose you over Miguel Tejada.

.236/.291/.390. but don't worry, it's cool.

And I know you can't just magically be better. That's now what I'm asking. What irks me is that you don't give a shit. At least man up to it and say, "No, I'm not producing at the level I'm expected to. I understand why people are upset with my production and I'm going to do everything humanly possible to be the best hitter I can be. It bothers me that I'm not hitting at a level I can hit at."

That's all I ask.

Also, Slusser,

Chavez is hitting .236 with three homers and 15 RBIs (he's tied for second on the team in the last two categories).

The way you framed that. Hilarious. Bravo. Tied for second on the team in homers and RBI! Fantastic!.

Writing About The Warriors Is Hard

2007-05-08T16:20:00.000-04:00

When everyone else is doing it.

With better information, access, and, well, talent.

So I merely offer my humble perspective as a long time, long suffering, not bandwagoning fan of these Warriors.

And, with that in mind, let me tell you, last night was...frustrating. The final minutes, the final score itself in fact, are pretty reflective of how I felt going into this series. For some reason, we just don't match up well enough. I feel like we won't be tough enough on the boards, or hot enough with the shooting, or feisty enough on defense. Not all of those at the same time, mind you. Just one at a time, enough so that we'll be stuck in a state of perpetual almost.

That's how I felt last night. Like we were in a perpetual state of almost, or, if you prefer, couldn't quite. We couldn't quite stop Carlos Boozer well enough. We couldn't quite hit enough of the big shots. We couldn't quite close the deal. We couldn't quite stop Deron Williams.

couldn't quite hit that last shot>

You get the picture.

Maybe I'll be happily surprised, but, I dunno, I feel like we used all our magic during the Mavs series and, now, here we are, left with those same old Warriors.

Perhaps, though, I'm just putting too much stock into what was a disappointing Game 1. Still, it feels like we let a good opportunity slip out of our hands. And if the recent exit of the Sharks from the NHL playoffs is any indication, when you don't take advantage of opportunities to do the unexpected (go up 3-0, in the Sharks case), it becomes harder to take advantages of the opportunities to do what you're supposed to.

Now we've beaten the Jazz

2007-05-07T19:26:00.000-04:00

Shit wait, no we didn't.

But let it not be said that this was a fluke or something, the Jazz thoroughly outplayed the Rockets on every level. They were the better team by far from Game Three on, and won four of those five games, deservingly. They also probably should have won Game Five.

So, how do the Rockets fix the problems with this team? The obituaries came out on Sunday, and they seem to have a few things in common.

Steve Kerr's column on the issue is pretty well-written, although I'm pretty sick of Simmons and Kerr going to the well with the "watered down" league bullshit. The reason there was no legitimate MVP candidate this year is that none of the best players had outstanding seasons. The reason the Rockets won 52 games is that they had two of the best players in basketball and they used these to beat up on weaker teams. While the Rockets finished with a better record than the Jazz, they were only 28-24 against Western Conference opposition, equivalent to the lower seeds in the West. The Jazz were 32-20, a full four games better.

Kerr's piece is also filled with annoying stuff about "pit bulls" like Shane Battier. Shane Battier is a good basketball player, thats why he's a rarity on the Rockets. They don't need pit bulls to win, they need players that can shoot. I definitely agree that the Rockets need players that can break a zone down and penetrate. But Baron Davis is a dominant player in the league right now? I love the Warriors, but Davis had 6 amazing games against a team with poor perimeter defenseman, he didn't morph into Magic Johnson overnight.

Richard Justice made a neat portrait piece, offering up the correct problem but forgetting the solution. Here are some solutions.

The Van Gundy scenario: I'd get rid of him. I don't think that he's a bad coach, but he hasn't gotten us over the hump. Frankly, he plays boring basketball too, which is one of my biggest peeves in the game for a team so good. When you are a good team, would you want more possessions or less possessions? More possessions mean less of a chance of a fluke loss on spectacular shooting. The Rockets, despite the Yao Ming concerns about stamina, would be much better off playing at least an average pace, if not higher.

The supporting cast: The Rockets have little to offer but the mid-level exception again this year. This time, their entire focus should be on the backcourt. Namely, a combo guard or a point guard who can penetrate and score. The only free agents the Rockets lose of any merit are Chuck Hayes, who we can match and probably will on. And Dikembe, who I feel will probably hang it up.

Some players who I think would be good fits:
1) Earl Boykins, Milwaukee. He has a player option that I doubt he'll take. I'm not sure if he's worth the whole mid-level exception, but he can create his own shot, and he's got amazing speed, which is an asset whether the Rockets are up-tempo or Van Gundy-ized. Also, pictures of Yao Ming and Earl Boykins together would be amazing.

2) Matt Carroll, Charlotte. Less optimistic on this one, because I believe the Bobcats can match and would probably be obligated to, but Carroll would bring shooting, he can create his own shot, and he probably wouldn't be extraordinarily expensive.

3) James Posey, Miami. I don't really believe he's a good shooter. I just love James Posey. Plus he'd give us a third real perimeter defender.

When Fran Blinebury isn't busy tearing T-Mac a new T-Hole for no real reason, he suggested Grant Hill. Thats the kind of stability I want on the team: a guy who can't stay healthy. We already have Bob Sura.

I'll look into the draft next time I come back to this franchise. Which will probably not be for awhile.

Now We've Beaten The Mavs

2007-05-04T03:06:00.000-04:00

And the bandwagon continues to fill. I don't want to sound too bitter, but, I mean, I've been a fan long enough to remember that Clarence Weatherspoon/Jim Jackson were the first Al Harrington/Stephen Jackson. I remember drafting Tim Young in the second round, joking with my dad that, "Only the Warriors would draft a white stiff out of Stanford like Young. Watch, we're gonna take him." Jason Caffey? Check. I have Cliff Rozier's autograph somewhere.

And NOW you want to jump on? Now you people, Kate Hudson, fringe NBA fans looking for a cause to back, fans of underdogs everywhere, NOW you want to ride the fun wave?

*****I wanted to put a picture of a former Warrior here, but apparently there are no pictures in google's imagesearch to confirm the Warrior existence of Jim Jackson, Clarence Weatherspoon, Tim Young, Jason Caffey, BJ Armstrong, Joe Smith, Andrew Declerq, or Mark Price. So, instead, here's Thunder*****

Hahaha, I'm just shittin ya, HOP ON THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS TRAIN. IT'S A GREAT TIME OUT.

I had to break up that depressing string of NBA posts

2007-05-01T14:41:00.000-04:00

Well, it's been a month, and I'm still watching.

It says a lot about the state of this franchise that a .500 April is cause for optimism. But then, this is a team that has just enjoyed only its second opening month with at least as many wins as losses in the post-strike era. Basically, the Pirates have almost always been buried in the standings before May Day. Last season, they hit a new low, closing out the first month of play with a 7-19 record, essentially rendering the next five months pointless.

We'll take our surprising mediocrity, thank you. And by surprising, I don't mean that this group of players shouldn't be hanging around .500. What I do mean is that judging by the way this group of players has played so far, they should actually be a few games or so worse than they have been -- their pythagorean win-loss total right now is 10-14.

The question, then, is can this be sustained for five more months? Clearly not if the offense continues to consider four runs scored a good night, and if Salomon Torres keeps alternating between horrible luck and horrible pitching for each blown save. But if we examine the factors that have contributed to the team's 12-12 record, for better or for worse, we should be able to deduce whether or not a competitive season is realistic.

Players who have been as good as expected or better than expected:

Jason Bay -- first and foremost, the offense simply revolves around Jason Bay. Despite rumblings of his "anti-clutchness," Bay still compiled a .280/.362/.495 line. While that's not quite up to par with the deservedly lofty expectations we have for Bay, it's pretty much on par with his .283/.388/.487 line in April throughout his career. He should be fine, and will probably end up with his typical superb season.
Chris Duffy -- Talk about a 180-degree turnaround (or in Duffy's bizarre world, a 360-degree turn), but Duffy has gone from an April in which he was so bad that he actually quit baseball for about a month to looking like he has some idea of what he's doing with a baseball bat in his hands. He's currently third on the team in walks and second in on-base percentage, which is something that absolutely must be kept up if the Pirates are going to be successful offensively.
Jack Wilson -- Jack is outhitting his career line by about 65 OPS points. Granted, that's not saying much, and he'll probably revert to his usual ineffectual self at some point in the near future. But hey, he's still great at moving runners over, which is always a good thing when Jim Tracy is your manager because that idiot really likes to waste outs with the likes of Jason Bay due up. Defensively, Jack has been nothing less than excellent, which is to say he's returned to his previous level after a disappointing 2006 in the field.
Jose Bautista -- Bauti is crediting a shorter swing to his decent start to the 2007 season. He's not walking at the same rate that he did last year, but he's making a ton more contact. The home run power has yet to show up, but his 10 doubles in 24 games attest that he's still driving the ball somewhat, and he claims the power will come as he gets more comfortable with his new swing. He's also been outstanding defensively at the hot corner, yet to commit an error and leading the N.L. in range factor.
Ian Snell -- Snell has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the early going, real talk. He's evolved into the one starting pitcher the Pirates have where I'm expecting a win pretty much every time out. While he's obviously not going to have a 1.59 ERA all year, somewhere in the low 3's with 15 or so wins is a fair expectation for someone with his talent and stuff.
Tom Gorzelanny -- Saturday night's 6-inning, 5-run debacle excluded, Gorzo has been close to Snell's level this year. After completely blowing up in spring training, he's made the Bucco brass look smart with their decision to keep him in the rotation. He's shown good control, with around a 2.6:1 K:BB ratio, and he's only served up one homer so far. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish with a similar line to the one he has right now, but he could regress slightly as well and it wouldn't be that big of a deal.
Matt Capps -- Capps has been practically untouchable, and although he's not going to finish the year with a sub-1 ERA (shades of Papelbon lololol), he's still 23 years old and his secondary pitches only keep getting better, which is always a plus when you have a mid-90s fastball that you can put wherever you want.
Jonah Bayliss -- Apart from Capps (and closer Torres, obviously), Bayliss is the only right-handed reliever Jim Tracy trusts in late-inning, high-leverage situations, and rightly so. Bayliss has yet to allow any inherited runners to score, and he's gotten out of some really sticky spots, including a couple of bases loaded messes, such as the juiced/nobody out situation he rescued Tony Armas, Jr. from last Thursday.
Damaso Marte -- Welcome to LOOGYville. As usual, Marte has managed to actually pitch far worse than his numbers suggest. He can still be useful for a crucial strikeout here and there, but I still hide my head every time this guy comes trotting out from the bullpen.
Shawn Chacon -- Yeah, I'm including him here only because the expectations for him were so astronomically low coming in. In all fairness, he has pulled some heroic long relief outings out of his ass, like the time he pitched four scoreless innings in that 16-inning marathon against the Astros last week.
John Grabow -- He hasn't had a chance to suck yet, so we'll just slot him in here until he does.
Xavier Nady -- Sort of the forgotten man, in that he hasn't played the field in like two weeks because he has a "nagging hamstring problem" and this team is too stupid to understand how the disabled list is supposed to be utilized. When he was healthy, he provided a nice power boost to an otherwise completely deprived lineup, although his plate discipline was awful. Despite what Dave Littlefield would like to think, Nady is far from the answer, although he'd be a nice complementary piece for a team with three or four legitimate hitters already, especially if he can platoon and play predominantly against lefties.
Ryan Doumit -- It's only been 17 at-bats, but they've been awesome ones. Clearly he's not going to keep this up all season, but he was absolutely raking so bad in AAA at the time of his call-up that it was almost unfair (.415/.493/.717). He's obviously somewhat talented at hitting, so the Pirates could do far worse (and believe me, they probably will) than just giving this guy some at-bats and turning him loose. Sadly, he's also the team's only backup catcher and Jim Tracy wakes up in cold sweats every night over the possibility of having to stick Don Kelly behind the plate for an inning in the extremely likely scenario that Ronny Paulino stubs a toe and Doumit has already been used as a pinch-hitter.

Players who have been as bad as expected or worse than expected:

Adam LaRoche -- every list of Pirates disappointments so far has to start with LaRoche, who was probably unfairly expected to be the left-handed savior of baseball in Pittsburgh. He's stunk so bad thus far that the masses are already clamoring for the return of Mike Gonzalez and his busted elbow, and Sal's struggles haven't exactly helped things. Still, he's a notoriously slow starter, as his .182/.282/.354 line will attest. He's still drawn a team-high 13 walks and his defense has pretty much been as advertised -- not gold-glove caliber, but certainly above average. It's been frustrating watching this, to say the least, but I'm not worried. Yet.
Salomon Torres -- The knee-jerk reactions to Sal's slow start have been annoying to have to deal with. As one of Sal's biggest apologists, it's obnoxious to listen to. He hasn't pitched all that great, but two of his threw blown saves weren't even his fault. One was the result of a passed ball and an error by Ronny Paulino in the same inning, and in another he let exactly one ball leave the infield. Sal will be fine, mark my words.
Freddy Sanchez -- This one's easy, Freddy's basically been playing through a month of spring training. He was injured like a week into the real spring training and didn't come off the DL until about five games into the regular season, so he's obviously going to need some time to get warmed up. He's looked very unlike himself in finishing April with a .224 batting average, and he's really chased some bad pitches that he ordinarily stays away from -- he's already struck out over a quarter of the times he did in all of last year. Still, he showed signs of getting back on track just last night, when he had two hits and even his two outs were both solidly struck. He obviously wasn't going to hit .340 again, but he should still recover enough to finish in the .300 range.
Ronny Paulino -- Yeah, I don't even know what this guy is doing right now. Everything he did right last year and during March this year, he's doing the exact opposite of right now. He's probably not that good of a hitter after all, but there's no way he's this bad, either. And if he is this bad, Ryan Doumit certainly can't be.
Zach Duke -- Duke hasn't been quite as bad as his ERA indicates, but he hasn't been that good, either. Four of his six starts have been of the quality variety, but the other two were flat-out ugly, 7 runs apiece in 2 innings and 4 innings, respectively. I don't know where the Duke we saw two years ago went, but it probably has something to do with Duke essentially being a glorified junkballer. He doesn't have a legitimate out pitch, and thus will probably never be more than a middle of the rotation caliber starter. Which is okay, because we have Snell and Gorzo to be the front end of the rotation. As long as he keeps pitching quality starts more often than not, I'll be happy with him.
Paul Maholm -- My stance on Maholm has long been that he's quite simply not a good pitcher, but he's already established himself as a proven mediocrity so it'll be a long time before someone is able to pry him out of a Major League rotation somewhere. Take away that complete game shutout last week against the hapless Astros, and his season would look like a total disaster. I'd just as soon give Bullington/VanBenschoten/Burnett an opportunity in his place, but it's never going to happen.
Tony Armas, Jr. -- Let me be on the record as saying I was never particularly happy with giving this guy a multi-million dollar contract to begin with, and so far he's done nothing to prove me wrong. Granted, I didn't expect him to be this awful, but it makes me even more justified now that he has been. His WHIP is almost 3.00. 'Nuff said. Meanwhile, Bryan Bullington has a 1.17 ERA in AAA. I hate being a fan of this team.
John Wasdin -- Yep, good ol' Wayback has been about as bad as expected. It doesn't even really matter because when he pitches the game has almost always already been decided, and he's also the first to go the next time the Pirates want to call somebody up, so he's essentially harmless.
The bench -- Has been pretty much nonexistent, it's safe to say. The only player who's been even remotely serviceable has been Nate McLouth. Brad Eldred and Jose Castillo look absolutely clueless, and Don Kelly is probably the least useful player ever to wear a Major League Baseball uniform. It doesn't help that this already-weakened group is left a man short by the Pirates continuing to dick around with Xavier Nady even though the guy hasn't been able to run for two weeks. Of course, this weakness would be far less glaring if the rest of the team could hit, which they haven't shown any inclination to do thus far.

Conclusion:

As it stands right now, the players who have performed above expectations look like they should regress far less than the players who have been worse than expected should improve. In particular, there's absolutely no way that LaRoche, Sanchez, Paulino, Torres, Duke, the 5th starter spot, etc., will be this bad all year.

The fact that the Pirates have sneaked out of the month with a 12-12 record despite all of their woes is extremely uplifting. While being a fan of this team has taught me to expect absolutely nothing, I can't help but feel some cautious optimism about this team's chances to be competitive all season long.

For now, though, I'm just taking this one game at a time, waiting patiently for the whole team to finally start to click...

You're a bunch of failures.

2007-04-29T05:01:00.000-04:00

Failures.

Game 2 is TONIGHT

2007-04-25T20:25:00.000-04:00

This isn't going to be much of a substantial posts, since, hey, I don't post much anything substantial. But I am excited to see how the Warriors plan to pull out another one. There's been a lot of analysis over our shocking Game 1, but it really came down to 2 things:

1)Avery Johnson shot himself in the foot by trying to play to our style with his small lineup, which the Mavericks are ill suited to do as it puts an awkward strain on Dirk Nowitzki's game.

2)Uncharacteristically good defense by the Warriors.

Number 1 I don't expect to really happen again. I think Avery saw the disaster his game plan was in Game 1, but I find number 2 to be very, very interesting.

Here's the deal. The Warriors are notoriously bad defenders. But after seeing how they tried in Game 1, it looks, to me, like something they can repeat. They've always had the athleticism, and the speed, and the strength. They've just never put in effort. Baron Davis and Jason Richardson in most games are laughable on the non-offensive end of the floor. But they started hustling and moving around and all of a sudden turned into pretty solid defenders against Dallas. Ditto pretty much, well, everyone. Mickael Pietrus, the laziest player I've ever seen, looked inspired. He was a tenacious defender of Nowitzki. Harrington and Jackson muscled up on him too. This is what we need more of. It was a pleasure to finally see something like that out of this team.

So what I'm saying is that I think this team has the defensive talent, but a crippling lack of desire and effort, most, practically all, of the time. Can they keep up the effort defensively they showed in Game 1? I don't know. And if Avery Johnson lets the Mavericks play the ball that won them 67 games during the regular season, will it even matter? That, too, I don't know. But it does mean we're no typical eight seed (which I've always believed.) By no means are we better than the Mavericks, but we do have a very legitimate shot to win I think. Though, of course, Don Nelson doesn't think so:

"We were just lucky that first game. They didn't shoot very well, and we didn't either actually. But for whatever reason, we played a little bit better than they did," he said. "I think they'll do just fine the second game. They'll be dominant as they should be and they'll mop us up.

"We have a better chance to get hit by lightning than to win tomorrow night."

Gotta love Don.

Anyway, what I wanted to type next was, "And make no mistake, if the Warriors win this, it'll be the biggest franchise win of the last 10 years." Which, of course, it would, but, like, that's pretty much been the case for the last 4 or 5 wins, so I'll spare you readers that. Except not, sorta, as I already typed it. My bad.

Go Warriors.

Used to Bitterness

2007-04-24T21:08:00.000-04:00

As a lifelong Red Sox fan, it is not uncommon for me to feel bitter and pessimistic about my favorite team, its performance, and the solution. Sure, since we won in 2004, everything has changed. But the mentality is slowly shifting that way, and if we make it far in this year's playoffs only to fall short, the same frustration will probably resonate throughout New England.

But I'm not talking about the ups and downs of being a Sox fan.

I am, however, talking about May 22nd, which is the biggest make-or-break day in Boston sports since mid-October, 2004. May 22nd is the NBA Draft lottery, in which the Celtics have the second-most ping-pong balls. In most years this would only be somewhat somewhat important, but it is well understood throughout the country that this is the best draft in years. The Celtics have the second-best shot of getting Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. For most fans, this is a time of optimism. We are so close! We're virtually guaranteed the pick!

I'm not buying it. Not just yet. Still recovering from 1997 and looking at the team's track history for the past twenty years, I've become almost totally convinced that bad things are bound to happen to us. Len Bias. Reggie Lewis. Chauncey Billups and Ron Mercer. I was never alive for the years where the Celtics controlled the NBA- I missed out on it. I couldn't even appreciate Larry Bird in my youth, because I was simply too young to understand that he had once been the most clutch player in the franchise's history. In my nearly 19 years in existance, I have not seen one thing from the franchise that does honor to the teams of the past.

People fail to remember that even with the second-worst record, the Celtics only have a 40% chance of landing the first or second pick. It is likely that the Celtics will not get Oden or Durant. And honestly, on any other year, this would be okay. If this was happening last year, who cares? There was no player who was close to being above the rest. If we were debating about Adam Morrison vs LaMarcus Aldridge, it doesn't matter who we go with. They were supposed to be good. Oden and Durant are supposed to be superstars.

Everything could change on this fateful Tuesday. If the Celtics get Oden or Durant, the franchise essentially gets restored. Paul Pierce will finally be partnered with someone who can score 20+ a game (not that Big Al won't eventually get there) not named Antoine Walker. The Celtics would immediately become a contender in the East, and the prestige of the franchise would be restored.

If we don't, we take Joakim Noah or Brandan Wright, have to wait a few years for their impact to be felt if they pan out, which will waste more of Paul Pierce's prime, which will make us a 45-48 win team at best, which won't be good enough to contend. Yes, I've been worrying about this for weeks now. Yes, I expect this to happen totally.

I can remember sleeping at my uncle's apartment as a kid- I was probably about ten. The Celtics were playing the Grizzlies in a pretty tight game. My cousin and I kept cheering them on, while my uncle watched the game rather apathetically, occasionally chiming in with a bitter comment. I don't remember exactly what was said, but he said something to the effect of "I've seen them blow so many, it doesn't even surprise me anymore." I didn't really understand the significance of this until years later- sometime around an hour ago. My uncle was alive for every single Celtics championship and has not even become unhappy about the team's shortcomings- he reached a point, only 13 years or so removed from their last title, where he was just bitter and sarcastic. And I figure he's become more apathetic since.

And so, to continue with the title of this article, I guess that myself and all others who follow the franchise are used to being bitter about them. I appreciate and understand that we have won more than anyone else, but what do I know about that outside of finals games from the Bird era on ESPN Classic? I've seen two dynasties in the NBA in my 18 years- the Chicago Bulls ('91-'93 and '96-'98) and the Los Angeles Lakers ('00-'02). The Celtics last won in 1986. I've never been able to appreciate this in the same way that I've never been able to truly feel the agony of Mookie Wilson's ground ball rolling through the legs of Bill Buckner.

My proudest moment as a Celtics fan was game 4 of the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics overcame a 26-point deficit to beat the Nets. It was incredible. Antoine Walker showed emotion for the first time in his life, and inspired the team to outscore the Nets 41-16 in the fourth quarter. We lost the next two games, but I was still incredibly happy and proud of my team. We were finally showing the greatness I'd only heard about. And this one pick could bring us back to that and then some.

And so, on May 22nd, I'm going to worry, sweat, and agonize over the lottery. If we get a top-2 pick, I'll be ecstatic. If we don't, I'll be disappointed.

But hey, I'm used to it.

Jazz Fans,

2007-04-24T15:58:00.000-04:00

This linked on Deadspin piece gave me the giggles. Not just this piece, but the blog in general.

There is no way that Houston is a better team than the Jazz.

Um, you do realize that if Carlos Boozer didn't play like Kobe last night, you'd have been blown off the floor by a team that shot 36% from the field, right? Maybe in the regular season, you'd have an argument. Right now though, the only Jazz players who are playing well are Boozer, Harpring, and Williams.

3) Let the broken record play on — Derek Fisher can’t guard Tracy McGrady. Giricek does a far better job defensively, and has a decent offensive repertoire as well.

News Flash: Nobody can guard Tracy McGrady when he drives to the paint. He is very talented, but more importantly, he is a "superstar". As such, he is entitled by dumb NBA refs to get a plurality of foul calls against people like Gordan Giricek. You aren't going to hold McGrady down one-on-one and you aren't going to hold Yao down one-on-one either. Now, if you want to shift the series, heres what you do: Let Rafer Alston shoot uncontested threes. It will work.

4) Memo needs to shoot more, especially at home. I don’t care if he’s had a horrible first two games. He WILL start making those shots.

Honestly, I don't believe this. I think the Jazz are having him play such rough defense on Yao that it's sapping all his energy. He's looked tired. Not saying it can't happen. Just, you know, doesn't seem so likely to me.

I'm also a bit confused by the anger they have over Sloan, yet they still want him to win coach of the year? I wouldn't play Kirilenko the way he's been playing him, and I wouldn't bench Ronnie Brewer either, but NBA Coaches make lots of dumb moves in my opinion. Take for instance, starting Rafer Alston even though he's a complete liability on offense.

Come back Boriskov!

2007-04-23T09:44:00.000-04:00

Doesn't that even sound stupid? Come back Boriskov? It sounds like something Sylvester Stallone would star in. Yet, like Obi Wan, Boriskov was my only hope.

Last year, I started religiously following Japanese Baseball. Finding the scores was easy enough, and I can still do that. The problem is the stats. Boriskov's now deceased geocities page was the only place on the internet that had the stats in English, and without him, I felt completely lost. You may notice one sidebar link that still works and has some stats for my Hanshin Tigers, the Tigers Today page, which is probably the first website in history dedicated to how well Ryan Vogelsong and Esteban Yan are doing.

The closest thing we have is JapanBaseball.com's rudimentary stats page. I applaud the moderator (who I think goes by michaelbaystars) for taking this measure, but it still leaves out so much context. Weak hitters, Weak pitchers. I can't tell these things from a leaderboard. All I can tell is that Hanshin has struggled early to find consistent pitching and that Kanemoto is a badass. They also have a message board, which led to this post by Baseball Prospectus SABR Japan guy Mike Plugh:

He replied to me. Very cryptic and grim. It sounded like something terrible has happened, but I didn't pry. I don't think he's planning to resurface anytime soon unfortunately. I send my prayers out to him for whatever he's dealing with.

So I had been planning a huge analysis, predictions; everything. For a long time now. But without the stats, it's kinda meaningless, eh? You'll just have to settle for the fun factoid that on this day in 2003, Shingo Takatsu set the NPB saves record. Because all I can look up is past events.

Come back Borisov!

Morning Multicap- 4/23/07

2007-04-23T09:33:00.000-04:00

Braves 9, Mets 6 - Alternately titled: The day I started plotting a Viking funeral for Scott Schoeneweis.

Red Sox 7, Yankees 6 - Chase Wright's presence causes more homers than David Wright these days. It's sad, really.

Warriors 97, Mavericks 85 - Hyphy.

Baystars 4, Carp 3 - Jared Fernandez's **** apparently works in Japan.

Industriales 3, Santiago De Cuba 2 - Maicel Diaz does not fuck around (Or strike anyone out) on his way to evening up the Cuban series 2-2.

If There Is A God He'll Give Me A Token Playoff Appearance

2007-04-18T15:23:00.000-04:00

The last time the Golden State Warriors made the playoffs, or finished above .500 for that matter, I was 7 years old. My basketball fandom at the time involved asking my dad if Michael Jordan was chocolate and Larry Bird was vanilla while we watched the NBA on NBC (complete with Marv Albert's sweet beautiful voice and that fantastic intro music they used to play). (true story.)

i miss nba on nbc

I started truly appreciating the Warriors right around the time Latrell Sprewell decided it'd be a good idea to choke P.J. Carlesimo. The year before the incident I went to my first Warriors FanFest (I think they actually called it an "Open House" but I can't really remember and I don't think they really do it anymore) where a certain accident (I was supposed to play with the players on the court in one of those "HEY WE GONNA PLAY WITH THE KIDS" type games, but apparently they ran out of time for it) which resulted in a Latrell Sprewell autograph for me and tickets to my first Warriors game. (Against the Nuggets. We sat in the top row, and they lost. It was fantastic.)

Since then, I've been treated to, well, the Warriors. We drafted Todd Fuller ahead of Kobe Bryant. I was made to believe Jim Jackson was a superstar. Jason Caffey started for us. I've rooted for Cliff Rozier. For the latter half of the 90's Donyell Marshall was like our best player. We traded Antawn Jamison for Vince Carter on draft day only to see Vince Carter go light the league on fire. We traded Chris Webber for Penny Hardaway on draft day, ruining forever my chance at calling Lil Penny my own. To make a long story short, this has been a miserable franchise.

can't even find a proper todd fuller picture through image search. curse you.

Yet, here we are. Tonight, that could all end. We could finish above .500 with just a win over the lowly Portland Trailblazers. We could play a meaningful game in May. Jason Richardson deserves this. The fans of the Golden State Warriors deserve this. Hell, even Adonal Foyle deserves this.

Tonight is the single most important game in this franchise's last 12 years. In all of my meaningful years as a basketball fan, tonight, against the Trailblazers, means more than any of the rest of them. I'm about as nervous/excited/wtf? as you can be for a team that's trying to secure a meaningless 8th seed. I only wish I could watch this live. Curse you, Boston.

Go Warriors.

(And if that's not enough, the A's are about to face off against the hated Angels and the Sharks have Game 4 of their first round series with the Predators tonight. This very well may be the most loaded day of sports all year for me. Whoo doggy.)

I Lied, I'm Going To Talk About It

2007-04-13T15:29:00.000-04:00

Oh lord it's so close I can taste it. I haven't gotten myself worked up yet because, well, they're the Warriors, and excitement at the end of an NBA season is so alien a feeling to me (NBA success? Warriors? What?) that I don't even think I could have identified it if I tried.

But here we are, with a legitimate chance at the playoffs. And I don't mean legitimate chance in the "Dear God it's been 12 years I have to convince myself there's a legitimate chance," kinda way, I mean legitimate chance in the "even Henry Abbott thinks we're a good team and have a shot" kinda way.

For a while I convinced myself I wouldn't be disappointed if we lost out on the 8th spot, but now I've done the 180, mainly because if we lose it, it'll be to the Lakers and Clippers. I hate both these teams, not just because of the whole NorCal-SoCal rivalry deal, but because, well, the Lakers are the Lakers, and the Clippers strike me as a team so very much like the Warriors, only one who got their taste last season. I want that taste. Warriors fans deserve that taste. The Clippers do not deserve to double dip here.

could it be, could it really, really be?

Have I reason for optimism? Sure, I think. Jason Richardson's gone back to being Jason Richardson finally, Baron Davis has only to stay healthy for four more games, Stephen Jackson hasn't seemingly had one of those "I'm gonna shoot 1 for 8" nights in a while, and the rest of the Andris Biedrins/Monta Ellis/Al Harrington/Matt Barnes rotation continues to be pretty productive. We've got Minnesota, Sacramento, and Portland in 3 of our 4 remaining games, so I don't feel unabashed in saying we very well should go at least 3-1. The other game is against Dallas, whose number we've inexplicably had as of late. 3-1 should be expected, 4-0 can be hoped for within reason.

I know, it's the 8th seed. We'll probably get trounced by the Mavs (though it's amusing to see everyone write about how we'd give them a series. Something tells me it wouldn't quite work that way. We're still the Warriors. They're still the Mavericks. You can't stress that enough, I think.)

But,

The playoffs, yes, the playoffs, fellow Warriors fans, are in sight. There may very well be a light at the end of the tunnel. And if they don't make it, my how entertaining a post I will give you.

You Suck, NHL

2007-04-12T18:26:00.001-04:00

hella tight. too bad i couldn't watch them.

Last night the Sharks played what will likely have been one of the most exciting games of the season with their 5-4, double OT win over the Nashville Predators. I'm in Boston now, so, understandably, I don't really get to watch the Sharks. I'm fine with that, I've really only started to truly appreciate hockey being in New England, so I've grown more fond of the college game than I have the NHL. I'm not afraid to admit that if the Sharks weren't very good I'd hardly lose any sleep over it. What can I say, (professional) hockey isn't baseball or basketball, and the Sharks aren't the A's or the Warriors, nor will they ever be.

shitty network

But missing last night's game drew my ire for a particular reason.

Because, you know, it was a freaking playoff game. Dear NHL, if you ever want to expand your product and draw in fans, next time make sure that when the team playing in the fourth largest media market in the country is playing in a double overtime playoff game, you can at least give us a live look in, on Versus.

Hugs and Kisses,
Jonnyray.

shitty league

-Fuck you Scott Hartnell. Admittedly, I don't know all that much about the NHL, and I have no idea who you are, except as the prick who landed a knee to knee hit on Jonathan Cheechoo and probably wrecked him for the playoffs (which, of course, could very well wreck the Sharks' playoffs.) So fuck you very much.

-No. I will not say anything about the Golden State Warriors and their chase for the playoffs after 12 straight years missing them. If, IF, they're successful, then you can expect a big long sexxy post where I wax poetically on this long awaited accomplishment.

-ERA's of Oakland A's Starters:
Dan Haren- 0.69
Rich Harden- 1.38
Joe Blanton- 3.97
Joe Kennedy- 1.64 (Remember when it was like 21 in Spring Training? lol@springtraining)
Chad Gaudin- 2.53

Oakland A's Record: 4-6.

Dear Billy Beane,

Offense.

Luv,
jonjon.

-Lastly, the Northeastern baseball team has won 5 of their last 6 and are now 13-9 (8-6 CAA). I just like to update myself in this space on my school's athletic happenings from time to time.

No Place Like Home

2007-04-09T13:32:00.000-04:00

The A's open at home tonight against the Chicago White Sox. Rich Harden will be parading his fantastic stuff in front of the home fans, healthy, for the first time in who knows how long. Mike Piazza will make his home debut as an Athletic. And given how he just put one up the Angels' ass, the home fans will be sure to like him regardless of his performance tonight. Bobby Crosby will strike out and probably make an error or something as well. There's always some bad to go with the good. Especially when it concerns Bobby Crosby.

And I'll be watching all of that lovely, fun, exciting baseball up close and personal...........on my computer screen. On MLB.tv. 3,000 miles away. In Boston, where it's 48 degrees out right now and where it snowed like last week. (Sometimes, certain things make you second guess certain big decisions you've made. And yes, 48 degrees is still cold. I don't care what any of you native East Coasters, or New Englanders especially, have to say about it.)

It's not like the home opener is a particularly big deal to me. I've been to a few, I've enjoyed the festivities. I prefer FanFest (which, hey, I also missed.) But, you know, if I were at Sac State or Davis or Santa Cruz, or, hell, even Santa Barbara or SDSU, I could make the little pilgrimage to Oakland. Instead, I'm sitting here counting the days until I can eat a real burrito under real weather.

(Mid Post Clarification: I like my school. I like Boston. But it's April and it snowed last week and it's been baseball season for like a week and I haven't been to an A's game. I need me a little summer.)

Crappy as the Coliseum may be, it's still my Coliseum. I'd rather watch baseball there than just about anywhere else. A's-Angels in September in the Coliseum is for me as good as it gets if you discount stuff like the Playoffs (which, hey, I probably also could've gone to. Come to think of it, what's with all this huge stuff fitting squarely into the two months of the season I'm not home? Thank God I'll be able to get to the All Star festivities, or I'd probably take out some poor Red Sox fan walking down the street.) And I dearly want to watch baseball there. Like right now. I want to participate in the monotonous, generic, but beloved "Lets Go Oakland" chant. I want to see those stupid dot races that get everyone all riled up, why, only God knows. I miss the crappy dollar hot dogs. I miss the BART rides to the game. I realize I'm going on and on over the lamest things ever. But it's what I want to post about right now and doggone it you're going to read it. (Though, given this site's traffic, chances are, no, no you're NOT going to read it!)

my crappy coliseum

Anyway, I'll be watching. On that little box on the computer screen that you can't really expand otherwise it'll be overly fuzzy, thus defeating the purpose of watching at all. And instead of commercials I'll get that ridiculous faux Breakout graphic the MLB people must just think is the darndest thing. Suffice it to say, something tells me it won't quite capture Rich Harden's darting fastball quite like I'm hoping.

Mets - Braves Liveblog; Baseballs biggest Joe Buck RETURNS! Part 2

2007-04-07T17:34:00.000-04:00

4:36 PM: Kelly Johnson is put away, Buck and McCarver both talk about "sitting on" answers. We get a nice shot of domestic abuse in the stands by Braves fans with those stupid tomahawks.

4:39 PM: Chipper, sick of being ridiculed, gives a ball a ride and the wind knocks it down fast enough for Alou to make a diving catch.

4:40 PM: DirecTV is ruining Major League for me. I have no desire to watch it ever again after this bullshit ad-campaign. I don't care about 1080-I, I just want you to stop ruining good movies. This is exactly like that Duke Phillips invention on The Critic that Jay Sherman saved us from, only worse.

4:42 PM: Edgar Renteria makes a clear error, as Shawn Green reaches. Joe Buck calls it an infield single. Bad eyes on the shortstop side of the infield, with a lot of misplays. Something to look out for. Smoltz is already past 100 pitches. Valentin pops-up.

4:44 PM: Glavine gets his second sacrifice down, and Reyes will be up in another clutch situation. They appear to be pitching around him, and so it falls into LoDuca's hands. LoDuca quickly gets into an 0-2 hole, and Braves fans boo lustily as a pitch 4 feet off the plate is called a ball.

4:49 PM: Ball 2. Long battle with LoDuca fouling off a lot of balls. Joe Buck brings up our record of failure in Atlanta, as if the Braves were not a great team. LoDuca strikes out. Buck rubs it in our face. Then cuts to a Chevrolet commercial that seems to be about how black people are allowed to like Chevy's. If I cut myself, this'd be where I'd be getting out the utensils.

4:54 PM: FOX camera work in the Mets bullpen looks like those webcams they used when we were on the ground in Iraq. Andruw Jones doubles over Wright's head.

4:57 PM: Francoeur singles over Valentin's head, and with McCann up the tie game is very much in doubt. Willie elects to stay with Glavine.

4:58 PM: Valetin makes a diving catch of a line drive, saving the lead, and setting up a double play situation that could end the inning. He's the best defensive second basemen I've seen for the Mets since the Fonz in his prime.

4:59 PM: Glavine goes 3-0 on Craig Wilson, which is not so cool, because there is no right-hander in the pen, and Matt Diaz has crushed both balls he's hit today. Walks him. Glavine will not give in! He is a grinder! Randolph unsurprisingly lets Glavine stay in.

5:02 PM: Glavine throws a ball. Diaz chases a ball way outside. Diaz hits a sacrifice fly, but Shawn Green forgets to catch it, because he's a horrible person and I hate him. 3-2 Braves.

5:06 PM: Official player of FC Pedro Feliciano gets the ball, although I really dislike this situation for him. I think this is more of a Heilman situation. Green catches the fly ball this time, it's 4-2, and it would be 3-2 if Shawn Green wasn't a Jewsy McStagger.

5:10 PM: Tim McCarver gets obsessed with sac flies, talking about some game he worked in the 90's or 80's or Mesozoic era where there was three sac flies. Camera pans to Ma and Paw Braves fan, bundled up, uncaring. Good image. Feliciano walks Kelly Johnson, and his shirt is split open at the back, and Willie goes to the pen again, this time fetching...wait, I can't tell you, because Joe Buck won't give me useful information.

5:14 PM: Joe Smith, rookie reliever, gets the call. He's been used in three straight games, and seems to be an awkward choice. Renteria bounces a ball off the plate, and Shawn Green's error looms even larger. Smith did look pretty solid though, and after being left in to face official Met killer Chipper Jones (TM), get an inning ending fly out to left. Now we get to see Atlanta's new pen: Gonzalez, Soriano, Wickman.

5:22 PM: Gonzalez is up first, he pops up Beltran, but Delgado takes him hard off the middle. Smoltz makes great observations about how the starting staff needs to step up if they want to be a good team, that they can't just rely on the 7-8-9 inning guys.

5:24 PM: "John Smoltz is the Dennis Eckersley of 25 years ago." Do I want to try? Nah. Wright flies out to center.

5:25 PM: "Teams will be lining up to get Smoltz. They'll say, you wanna start, you wanna stop? Thats why I think the Braves will keep him." I don't need to add commentary to this, McCarver speaks for himself.

5:27 PM: Alou walks, and they can't possibly let Shawn Green bat, can they? Oh god they're going to. This won't be pretty. One thing I think Willie could get a lot better at is pinch-hitting. Naturally, Green singles up the middle to make it 5-3. Why is it Shawn Green's quest to prove me wrong?

5:29 PM: Jose Valentin up against a left-hander, this won't end well. What Willie could really get better at is pinch-hitting in these spots against left-handers. Kelly Johnson catches a tough pop-up to end the inning.

5:33 PM: Randolph leaves Smith in, and Smith responds by walking Andruw Jones. Control is a problem right now for him.

5:34 PM: Joe Buck thanks some asshole I don't care about for helping them talk to John Smoltz and ruin the game. Smith gets a double play ball, Reyes-Valentin-Delgado. "Quite an antiquated telestrator," says McCarver. Like we know or care. How about we focus on the game? Would that be hard?

5:37 PM: The DirecTV GAMEBREAK, brought to you by DirecTV, in case you didn't notice. Hey lets have a DirecTV commercial right after the break! OVERKILL IS FUN!

5:39 PM: "One blanket, three people. Maybe five." "MAYBE EIGHT!" David Newhan grounds out to first against Soriano. Soriano is so dark that I can barely see his gruesome beard.

5:43 PM: Jose Reyes apparently strikes out despite hitting the ball and the catcher dropping the ball. I'm confused, he's confused, I think Soriano is confused. Buck too, but he's always confused. LoDuca grounds out to third.

5:47 PM: Scott "The Show" Schoeneweis comes in. They're still talking about the fucking telestrator. I have nominated "The Blow" for Schoeneweis' nickname, but I'm waiting to see where the rest of the Mets Blogs go with it.

5:50 PM: Someone may want to check Carlos Delgado's glove for holes.

5:51 PM: Fans start a "Shawn Green sucks" chant. HEROES. David gets a tough out on a broken bat grounder. He has improved his defense this year, I'll give him that.

5:53 PM: Scott Schoenweis picks off Langerhans, Jon argues that Bobby Kielty is worse than Shawn Green and that Shawn Green is cool. Jon loves him some players with long looping swings who can't play defense.

5:56 PM: An aside, I think the Sobe commercial is cute for now. I won't feel this way after I've seen it a thousand times, but it's pretty okay.

5:59 PM: Wickman is in for the Braves; he thankfully is the worst of the three relievers, so maybe we still have a chance. Beltran works him to a 3-2 count, then whiffs.

6:02 PM: Delgado also works him to a full count, but unlike Beltran, he walks.

6:04 PM: David up, and Wickman throws it to the backstop. 2-0 count, but David has looked horrible today. Another ball by Wickman. David was taking all the way on the 3-0 to get a strike. Singles through the hole! Another ball he didn't hit well, but at least it's a hit.

6:07 PM: Moises Alou up, bloops hit to center, easy out on the first pitch. Leaving the game in the hands of...Shawn Green? OH GOD NO! NOOOOOOO!

6:09 PM: Wright steals second, a single ties the game. But it's Shawn Green.

6:11 PM: Wow. Shawn Green's hardest hit ball of the game, and it's stabbed by Craig Wilson. 5-3, Braves win. The lesson I've learned? Don't liveblog.

Mets - Braves Liveblog; Baseballs biggest Joe Buck RETURNS!

2007-04-07T15:33:00.000-04:00

2:35 PM: I tune in to FOX to immediately see Jeannie Zelasko and Kevin Kennedy ugly up their broadcast crew even more than usual with the help of Joe Girardi.

2:36 PM: The Mets apparently lost the last laugh to the Cardinals because the Cardinals have rings. Nevermind the 20-3 sweep. No, the last laugh is the Cardinals! This is our country!

2:37 PM: Joe Girardi thinks the Cardinals are still 0-3. Kevin Kennedy thinks that the Braves are under the radar because they have new relievers. No mention of Mark Redman? He keeps teams in games.

2:39 PM: We talk about Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kevin Kennedy insults the Royals, who have two wins, by saying that most of their players should be in triple A. Now we're talking about Heroes and Goats. Starring ARod. Oh, FOX! Joe Girardi's hero, however, is Sal Torres. Will just peed himself. Jeannie's hero is the Yankees. Which makes all kinds of sense. Because Cory Lidle crashed into a building and they let his family show up at a game.

2:44 PM: Ken Rosenthal is giving us actual news. Andruw Jones is going to leave, Mike Cameron is going to replace him if the Padres don't re-sign him. Unfortunately this is too short to actually give us more than a tidbit.

2:46 PM: Jeannie says that Roger Clemens views MLB on FOX as Shop at Home. Forgetting that Roger Clemens only wants to pitch for three teams.

2:47 PM: Joe Girardi and Kevin Kennedy both have quick predictions, and apparently aren't allowed to explain them. Because we have to RUSH OUT to the game. Except really we have to rush out to commercials.

2:51 PM: We have a Mets cocksucking fest, with surprisingly little mention of the Braves. What really steams me is that I started a liveblog just for this event and Buck didn't even do what he was supposed to do: bitch about the Cardinals. Not even a cursory mention. I'm sure this'll change as we move on.

2:55 PM: I never understood this whole "let the players introduce their own lineups" thing, I think it's pretty annoying. Pink Panther Moustache Valentin is a good nickname though. "How personal was that?" asks McCarver.

2:56 PM: Nit to pick with FOX. WE GET IT. YOU HAVE PEOPLE PAYING FOR TIME. We don't need a slow-mo shot of the sponsor in the middle of the game, then a zoom-in on their sign in the goddamn park. We. Get. It.

2:59 PM: Joe Buck is annoyed by Chewbacca sound effects on foul balls. Tim McCarver brings up that it has been 3 years since they graced the Atlanta booth with their presence. As if they have done some naughty things in that booth. Paul Lo Duca takes Smoltz out to make it 1-0 Mets. McCarver says that he finally caught up to the fastball, two batters into the game. Finally!

3:02 PM: McCarver cries a river for Chipper Jones because he can no longer field pop-ups and miffed Beltran's. I feel bad for Chipper, honestly. He got booed last night. At the home opener. Thats gotta be rough, especially in a sell out. They don't have too many of those in Atlanta. Even in playoff games. Turner Field is (not) packed again. Joe Buck thinks it's the weather. He disses humidity, saying, "who cares?".

"What do you have against air conditioners?"
"Hey, they keep us warm in the summer, pal!"

3:05 PM: The Braves get an amazingly lucky double play when Delgado hits a very short pop up behind the plate on a hit-and-run, negating the infield fly. Both Buck and McCarver regard this as almost routine.

3:08 PM: Oh boy, Tim Hudson just called Chipper "Larry" in the player introductions. Bad day to be Chipper Jones already. Delgado catches Chipper-itis and flubs a routine catch, getting the Mets first error of the season. It should apparently count as two because Joe Buck hates Carlos Delgado.

3:10 PM: Glavine walks Renteria on four pitches. Glavine continues to get behind in the count. Chipper Jones wears out Mets pitching, and he continues to do so by popping up to Jose Valentin. His career numbers against the Mets, .333 with 34 homers, look remarkably similar to his average season numbers, and he's played 164 games against us. But he's "killed us". McCarver can't stop bringing up the "touchy feely", which I think must have something to do with the last time Tim and Joe were in this booth. Glavine walks the bases loaded.

3:17 PM: The Braves get a run on a chopper by Jeff Francouer. Buck and McCarver blame the error, not the two walks in the inning or the fact that Glavine has gotten behind every batter. Glavine escapes with only one run despite the lack of control.

3:23 PM: Chevy's American Revolution is apparently a thinly disguised attempt to make commercials so irritating that we rise up against them and burn down their corporate headquarters. Interesting strategy, lets see how it works out for them.

3:25 PM: We suck on some David Wright schlong for awhile. He's the face of the franchise and such. And he strikes out after a eight-pitch battle. ARod hits a walkoff grand slam, how unclutch.

3:29 PM: Shawn Green, taking a break from his customary ground out to second, grounds out to third.

3:33 PM: Thats more like it. Joe and Tim make up for lost time by mentioning the Cardinals three times in a 9 second span. Matt Diaz makes up for lost time by golfing a ball just barely over the fence, and the Mets trail for the first time all season.

3:37 PM: Valentin ranges far out to his right but can't field the ball, leaving the Braves with another baserunner as Glavine continues to struggle.

3:39 PM: Paul Lo Duca, sick of baserunners trying to steal on him (and usually succeeding), pegs Kelly Johnson in the shoulder on a stolen-base attempt. Malevolent!

3:45 PM: McCarver gives a lesson on bunt coverage, but won't criticize Brian McCann for not doing it, saying "he'll learn how to do it." We are only allowed to criticize lapses by the Mets, apparently. Valentin makes a heads up base running play, getting in a long enough rundown to get Reyes to third.

3:57 PM: McCarver and Buck don't apologize for the inconvenience of the hitters by having the late afternoon start times that creep the shadows between. Inconveniencing the hitters, inconveniencing America. Buck and McCarver.

4:01 PM: We get a great shot of John Schuerholz chugging down the remnants of what looks like a beer. Buck and McCarver laud him, fairly. David Wright chases out of the strike zone again, mainly because the umpires outside corner is growing enormous.

4:05 PM: One on, two out, Shawn Green up. This is going to be a problem for the Mets this year. Every time I've said that so far this year, he gets a hit. Alou is slow and can't score, so it's up to Glavine as Valentin will be intentionally walked. Glavine hits a pop-up that Chipper can't quite corral, and it's looking like perhaps the big hit won't come today.

4:13 PM: Brian McCann's graphic said "Did not know: sloppy person." You try to figure out what that means. Glavine is stubborn. He does not give in to hitters. Did I mention that he's stubborn?

4:23 PM: Leadoff walk to Reyes. This inning could be make or break for the game.

4:24 PM: We have one of those stupid dugout interviews in the middle of the game. Just let the managers do their job. Jose Reyes steals second easily as McCann over charges his throw and one-hops the bag. Reyes reaches third on Lo Duca's ground out.

4:26 PM: Apparently David Wright is a greedy bastard who would never give himself up. Not like that gritty, gutty, Paul Lo Duca. Beltran singles to left to tie the game. Joe Buck is being surprisingly smart about the game here by talking about how the Mets have a lot of trading chips if the rotation doesn't shape out well.

4:30 PM: Another single up the middle due to the shift on Delgado, past a diving Chipper Jones. Beltran advances to third. Huge at-bat for David Wright. He could really use an extra-base hit here, and instead he expands his strike zone. He looks lost. McCarver says that he's really getting around in New York, but not in Atlanta. I cringe. Alou grounds out to first, the game is tied, and this blog is thankfully half-way home.

Your new and "improved" 2007 Chicago Cubs

2007-04-02T09:56:00.000-04:00

One word can describe my feelings about the off-season that the Chicago Cubs put together. To say that it's a "word," though, might be a bit of a stretch. It's more of a sound than a word, and it's something along the lines of "ugh."

A rundown, via Cot's Baseball Contracts, of the new deals that the Cubs gave out this winter:

Lou Piniella, manager: 3 years, $10 million
Alfonso Soriano, centerfielder: 8 years, $136 million
Aramis Ramirez, third baseman: 5 years, $75 million
Ted Lilly, starting pitcher: 4 years, $40 million
Jason Marquis, starting "pitcher": 3 years, $21 million
Mark Derosa, second baseman: 3 years, $13 million
Cliff Floyd, left fielder: 1 year, $3 million

When people say that the Cubs gave out $300 million in the off-season, they're not wrong I guess. This has been an unprecedented spending spree by general manager Jim Hendry, but not all of the $300 million is being paid out in 2007. When the actual opening day payroll figures come out, the number for the Cubs should probably be a little higher than the actual figure because of signing bonuses [for example, Soriano will make $9 million in 2007, but received an $8 million signing bonus]. So, yes, the Cubs did spend monster amounts of money this winter in attempts to improve the team.

Nonetheless, it's difficult to make an argument for the 2007 Chicago Cubs being worse than the 2006 Chicago Cubs, but the fact that the '07 Cubs are better than the '06 Cubs is really just true by default. Alfonso Soriano is an incredible improvement in center field, some of that has to do with just how bad a 2006 season Juan Pierre had. Ted Lilly might actually throw 150 innings this season, something only Carlos Zambrano was able to do last season for the Cubs, and chances are he will be a nice middle of the rotation starter who will benefit from pitching in the National League, especially in the NL Central. A full season of Derrek Lee is better than a platoon of Jon Mabry, Todd Walker and Phil Nevin, even if he doesn't perform up to his monster 2005 season.

So, the Cubs of this year will be better than the Cubs of last year, but how much better? Will the improvements made be enough to push them up into contention for a division title? A better question might be "have the other NL Central teams regressed enough for the Cubs progressions to make any difference?"

Alfonso Soriano was the real prize of this offseason. Even if he's not the ideal baseball player, it's certainly nice on some level to see the Cubs be aggressive and sign the best hitter on the free agent market. He's definitely an improvement over Juan Pierre offensively. However, what are the chances that he reproduces the line he put up with the Nationals last season? His on-base percentage is .013 higher than his previous career high, and .026 higher than his career on-base. His 46 homers over the season and 24 homers at a pitchers park like RFK are impressive numbers, and of all his career highs posted last season this is the one that is the most likely to stick as he moves to a more neutral park [and, according to Park factors, a hitters park last season] like Wrigley Field. Still, his on-base will probably not be much of an improvement over Pierre's .330 mark last season, but his power will make him far more valuable out of the position in the field. Still, he's getting superstar money despite the possibility that he is the third best hitter on this team, and he's playing a defensive position that he'd never played before. There are reasons to not be as optimistic as the normal person here.

In other offensive areas, the Cubs gave Mark Derosa an awful lot of money to do what Todd Walker did in 2004 and 2005, but should at least be able to produce about the same as he did in 2006. Cliff Floyd is a nice platoon guy in the outfield, but he'll get platooned with Matt Murton when I would have much rather brought in a leftie masher to platoon with Jacque Jones, who showed some extreme leftie/rightie splits last season (.886 OPS v. RHP, .667 OPS v. LHP). The tentative lineup:

CF: Soriano
LF: Murton
1B: Lee
3B: Ramirez
RF: Jones
C: Barrett
2B: Derosa
SS: Izturis
P: Zambrano

They should score some runs. Izturis is a black hole and there's a possibility that Derosa could be. Derosa will be bumped up to the 2-hole against most righties when Cliff Floyd plays and bats behind Barrett.

I'll say this about the Jason Marquis signing: I could have gone out there, allowed the most home runs, had the highest ERA and led the league in losses. That's right, me. The only thing that would have stood in my way would have been the team that was stupid enough to let me pitch enough to actually qualify in all of those categories. Somehow Jason Marquis threw 194 innings last year, and for some reason, that was enough to justify the Cubs giving him not only more than a minor league deal, but a multi-year deal. He does get a bonus for winning the Silver Slugger, though...so, whatever. He'll need to hit pretty well this season to make sure the team scores the 8 runs it needs to offset whatever crooked number he allows in the first two innings. At least there might be some consistency in the Cubs rotation. Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Miller is probably about league average, maybe better if Marquis doesn't completely suck and if Hill can control his home runs allowed. At least this year there might be more than one pitcher with 150 innings pitched. Quite a bit of money was spent on the bullpen last season, and this year they should have a chance to keep a couple more leads than they did last year, and they have a manager now who won't pitch them on back-to-back days all the time. If Dempster can return to his 2005 form, this could be a dangerous bullpen with Bob Howry, Scott Eyre and Michael Wuertz also working out of it. I'd rather see Angel Guzman in the rotation, but he's in the bullpen already feeling the effects of Jason Marquis and his monster contract. If Kerry Wood ever gets healthy this year, he could be an asset out of a bullpen that should be stronger in 2007 merely because it might be used properly.

Ultimately, the biggest question for the Chicago Cubs in terms of winning a championship before the 100 year mark is: "Can this team win the division?" The 2006 Cardinals taught us that no matter how mediocre you play during the regular season, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The division winner in the NL Central could have a win total in the 84 to 87 win range, but the division winner could be as bad as .500. While I think it's more likely that the Cubs will finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 to 79 wins, it's fully within the realm of possibility that the team could outperform this completely unscientific projection.

But, just like each of the past two seasons, the rationale behind a potential Cubs division title lies more in the major regression of other teams rather than the immediate progression of the Chicago Cubs. The team took steps forward thanks to free agency and lost very little as far as immediate talent in the process, but it's the Brewers who are looking like the division champs right now.

Reasonable projection: Cubs finish second, but out of wild card contention, with 78 wins. Brewers win the division with the same record as the Cardinals last season.

I'm Alive, And Signifying Such By Making Pre-Season Picks

2007-04-02T00:16:00.000-04:00

American League:

West:

1.Angels- Boooooo. Boooooooo. Booooooo. Too much good pitching, too much upside. Blech blech blech.

2.THE HOLY GREEN AND GOLD- You could easily flop us into third with Texas. I refuse to stoop so low, however. Too many question marks, too little health, but, most importantly, too little impact talent. Nick Swisher is awesome, though.

3.Rangers- Still don't have the pitching, and I don't think their offensive upside is as great as it has been in recent years. They've got a shot though because the AL West as a whole is rather weak.

4.Mariners- Who knows. Maybe they could surprise. I won't be the one to predict it, though.

Central:

1.Indians- I picked the Cardinals to win the World Series every year from like 2003-2005. I didn't last year, and they finally up and won it. Similarly, I've picked the Indians to win the Central from like 2004-2006, and, in that spirit, will continue forever until I'm right.

2.Tigers- I didn't believe in the White Sox, and I didn't believe in the Tigers. The lesson learned from this is that I am wrong. A lot.

3.Twins- If only they had Liriano...

4.White Sox- I never promised hardcore analysis here. I dunno, I just don't like them this year. Their pitching underwhelms me, and I think they're too content with crappy hitters like Podsednik and Juan Uribe (who, to his defense, plays a fantastic shortstop.)

5.Royals- Alex Gordon will be fun to watch.

East:

1.Yankees- They'll have the best regular season record, but won't win the World Series. And it'll be all A-Rod's fault. Man he sucks. All those home runs and high OPS numbers. Glad he doesn't play for the A's.

2.Red Sox- I want to see Daisuke set the world on fire. I drafted him on my fantasy team, and he seems like a fun guy. They're a boring pick to win the Wild Card, but as the NCAA tournament just showed us, boring is right more often than not.

3.Blue Jays- They've got an interesting collection of talent. They could probably win the West. Instead, they'll be a bitter third place finisher.

4.Devil Rays- Because I like their young talent and the Orioles are horrid.

5.Orioles- Horrid.

National League:

West:

1.Dodgers- I wanted to go with the Diamondbacks, but Chris just told me they're too trendy a pick and I hate going with the overly trendy picks. Plus I hate Bill Plaschke which means the Dodgers will obviously do well and he'll have free reign to slobber all over Ned Colletti's balls.

2.Diamondbacks- They've got all sorts of young talent and upside. Like I said, I'd rather pick this team, but I don't conform to non-conformism.

3.Giants- Because I want my friend Danny to have some hope. He deserves it. Bonds'll break the record, too.

4.Padres- Boring collection of talent.

5.Rockies- I'll be honest. I have no clue what's going on in this division. The Rockies could come out of nowhere and win it just as easily as the Dodgers or DBacks. It's a crapshoot as far as I'm concerned.

Central:

1.Brewers- I don't like the Cardinals for winning the World Series while being such a mediocre team. It causes people to re-think the playoffs and the Wild Card and the World Series, and I like all these institutions and think they hold up for the most part. So screw you, Cardinals.

2.Cubs- Their fans deserve a real race. I think they've got a shot at it, at least. They spent a lot of money on only decent talent, which isn't smart, but it does at least mean they've got decent talent.

3.Cardinals- Boooo. Albert Pujols is awesome, though.

4.Reds- I think they're plucky. I like ex-A's Kirk Saarloos and Scott Hatteberg. I like Ken Griffey Jr. The Astros are boring and underwhelming talent wise. As you can tell, these aren't scientific picks, whatsoever.

5.Astros- They're not the Pirates. Sorry, Will.

6.Pirates- But in their defense, they at least have some intriguing young talent lying around. I kinda consider this division like the NL West, I honestly have no idea what the hell is going on. Who knows, maybe the Pirates could win.

East:

1.Mets- Best team in the NL obviously.

2.Phillies- They're gonna do it one of these years. I pick this year. Wild Card for you, Philadelphians.

3.Marlins- They're a fun team, aren't they?

4.Braves- My how the mighty have fallen.

5.Nationals- Hahaha man they suck.

Playoffs:
DS:
Yankees d. Angels 3-1 (yaaaaay)
Indians d. Red Sox 3-2

Mets d. Dodgers 3-0
Phillies d. Brewers 3-1

CS:
Indians d. Yankees 4-3

Mets d. Phillies 4-2

World Series:

Indians d. Mets 4-2

Awards:

MVP:
AL- Travis Hafner, Cleveland
NL- Albert Pujols, St. Louis

Cy Young:
AL- Rich Harden, Oakland (I don't care. I'm picking it. Because I want to.)
NL- Jason Schmidt, Los Angeles

ROY:
AL- Alex Gordon, Kansas City (duh.)
NL- Chris Iannetta, Colorado

Manager of the Year:
AL- Joe Torre, New York
NL- Ned Yost, Milwaukee

Reports of our trade to the Cubs have been greatly exaggerated

2007-04-01T06:28:00.000-04:00

Despite popular belief, Future Considerations is not currently a subsidiary of the Chicago Cubs, nor has it just become one via trade. While it is certainly flattering for one to believe that this humble website is worth acquiring in exchange for a professional baseball player [albeit Tomas Perez] it is simply not the case at this point and time. The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles have never had any jurisdiction over Future Considerations, and the Chicago Cubs of Chicago do not currently have any jurisdiction over anything other than my heart.

Nice try Cubs, but you don't own us.

More than you ever wanted to know about Pirates Spring Training '07

2007-03-25T22:57:00.000-04:00

This is probably the most aggravating time of year. Pitt found yet another way to lose in a Sweet 16 (shooting 38% on layups is a new one on me), rendering college basketball dead to me. The Penguins are basically playing out the schedule until the playoffs start in April, which is going to kick ass because I haven't gotten to see playoff hockey since the Kasparitis swan dive.

Still my favorite hockey memory ever, even though I didn't really like hockey back then. Even my apathy at the time was not enough to overcome my desire to reenact Kaspar's celebration over and over again in my front yard. Still one of the greatest NHL postseason series ever.

The Steelers are busy signing their latest hard-working no-name linebacker that they can turn into a demon. It's even the international break in soccer, which always makes for a boring weekend. I just can't get that excited for Landon Donovan's bald spot. And no one can get excited for yet another England nil-nil draw starring Frank Lampard being useless as shit.

And, of course, in baseball, it's reached that point in Spring Training where the novelty of playing games again from the beginning of the month has worn off, and you just can't wait for the real games to start again, for the stats to start mattering.

I've been awfully silent about the Pirates for a lot longer than I'd intended, so I'll take the time now to review the key issues that have faced Your Favorite Team That Absolutely No One Cares About.

The infield saga

First, one of the big things heading into camp was the whole Jose Castillo vs. Jose Bautista battle that really started over the winter when Jack Wilson basically called Castillo out for being fat and lazy.

Jose Castillo's alter ego?

Jack Wilson was basically right, but everyone still made a big deal out of it and was very quick to take sides. None was quicker than Jim Tracy, who immediately served up a delicious bit of irony by lambasting Jack in the press for not taking care of such business behind closed doors.

Then, of course, Pirates management showed they were fully backing up Wilson's statements by first announcing that there was one open spot in the infield, and that it would come down to one of the Joses. Then we were treated to just about daily assessments from Jim Tracy about how Castillo was supremely disappointing, followed by the inevitable declaration that Bautista was the "winner" based on his superior plate discipline. Oh, and all the while, Castillo was also in the process of moving to third base because he's "stocky" now and it affects his range at second (and because Neil Walker was also moving to third base and he'd be much less likely to be blocked by the likes of a couple of league-average Joses than Freddy Sanchez).

While I agree that Bautista is probably a better player at this point, absolutely no one outside of the fan base has touched on the fact that, meanwhile, Jacksi Wilsayoun gets to make $4 million to provide absolutely nothing to a Major League lineup. And not only that, but he's going to continue to bat second as long as Jim Tracy is alive.

The takeout slide heard round the confluence

In one fell swoop, Rod Barajas caused thousands of people to simultaneously cringe when he slid into Freddy Sanchez's knee because Freddy decided early March would be a good time to play chicken with a 230 pound catcher.

As with all injuries to Pirates, it started out as just a minor tweak that would keep Freddy sidelined for a week at most before morphing into a serious twist that could even force the reigning NL batting champ to the DL to open the season.

No team is better at misdiagnosing injuries than the Pirates. This is the team that signed Pat Meares to a three-year contract extension less than a week after he broke a bone in his hand that essentially left him permanently unable to swing a baseball bat, something that's pretty crucial for someone whose job it is to perform such tasks.

Jason Kendall's gruesome ankle injury was most likely originally diagnosed as a mild abrasion.

Probably the Pirates' head trainer.

The Battle for the Bench

Freddy's injury causes all sorts of recourse throughout the rest of the team, since it means that even after his whole odyssey, Jose Castillo will still wind up as the opening day second baseman. Ironically, the same exact place he was last year.

This opens up an extra bench spot, widening an already intense competition. There are only five spots because no one associated with the team has ever heard of a six-man bullpen. The competitors:

Nate McLouth - Probably the closest thing to a lock on the team. I used to have something of a man-crush on Nate, but then the Pirates completely fed him to the wolves when they pampered Chris Duffy for two entire months, and then he severely sprained his ankle in August, ending his season. It was a shame, because he was starting to put things together a little bit now that he could actually hit against right-handed pitchers since Jeromy Burnitz had played himself into irrelevance. My prospect man-crushes have not worked out very well (Sean Burnett, McLouth, Brent Lillibridge). Thank God Shane Youman is too old to be a prospect anymore.

Luis Matos - Also most likely makes the team by virtue of being the only right-handed "true" center fielder still in camp. I have no problem with this, since he's not as much of a black hole at the plate as his injury-marred 2006 indicates. He's above average in the field, so the Pirates could do far worse as far as Chris Duffy's caddy is concerned. Hell, he might even hit better than Duffy as a regular. But none of this is important, since the only reason Abner Doubleday even invented center field to begin with was to prepare for the coming of Andrew McCutchen. Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., all those guys? Just keeping the seat warm.

I'll refrain from pulling a Woody Huyke, but it's certainly not far from the truth.

~~Jody Gerut~~ - Oh wait sike. It's still pretty impressive to me that the Pirates turned Jason Kendall's albatross of a contract into Arthur Rhodes, which they turned into Matt Lawton, which they turned into Jody Gerut, which turned into a 60-year-old ex-football player because who the hell else has such pathetic knees? Well, at least Jonah Bayliss is still alive and kickin'.

Jose Hernandez - The man they call "Jim Tracy's Stepson" is back for a third go-round with the Pirates, since apparently his whiff-laden first couple of stints didn't provide enough wind power for Duquesne Power and Light to run every air conditioner within a twenty mile radius of PNC Park. Still, there's actually a decent chance Jose K doesn't make the cut, which would be cause for celebration.

Don Kelly - If Hernandez doesn't make the team, it'll most likely be because Jim Tracy has inexplicably fallen in love with this Mt. Lebanon High School graduate. Lebo's hall of fame:

Don Kelly is 27 and has a high OPS of .625 at the AAA level, but he still has the chance to become John Wehner reincarnated in that he's a local boy who has really done nothing to prove he warrants a Major League roster spot, but somehow sticks with teams as a utility player year after year because he's somehow earned the undying love of a manager (in Rock's case, it was Jim Leyland who took Wehner with him everywhere he went). For this reason, Don Kelly would be excellent. We all would benefit from John Wehner, part deux. Bonus points if he has a yinzer accent. Oh, and if Kelly makes the team, it most likely means Jose Hernandez has been cut, and that would be an excellent thing to happen.

Fun facts about Don Kelly:
- He bats left-handed, which is part of the reason Jim Tracy fellates him in the Post-Gazette every morning. To me, this is nothing special. If he threw lefty I would totally be rooting for him because there are no left-handed infielders.
- He has one home run this spring in a team-high 58 at-bats, equalling his total in 397 AAA at-bats.
- He is the brother-in-law of Neil Walker, a tidbit that I'm sure Lanny Frattare will bring up at least twice per game this season.

Brad Eldred - The man they like to call "Big Country" (gosh, I wish people would start getting a little more creative with their nicknames) has been one of the most intriguing stories of the spring so far. He was pretty much the forgotten man after tearing his thumb a month into the 2006 season, turning 26, and having the misfortune of belonging to a baseball team whose fanbase you would think had never seen a left-handed power hitter before, judging from their reaction to the Adam LaRoche deal. Eldred hit home runs in his first five Grapefruit League games, prompting the Pirates to move him to the outfield. You'd think we'd tremble at the thought of a 6'5", 260-pound man roaming right field, but we've had to watch Matt Lawton, Craig Wilson, and Jeromy Burnitz butcher the position that the Great One once graced with his presence. Nothing fazes us.

Ryan Doumit - Doumit's inability to stay healthy combined with the fact that everyone has a boner for Ronny Paulino has pretty much turned him into the newest project for the people who started the "Free Craig Wilson" movement. Last season, when Ronny was raping his way to lead NL rookies in batting average and home plate collisions won, Jim Tracy had the brilliant idea of converting Ryan Doumit to first base before, in typical Jim Tracy fashion, openly roasting Doumit after he failed to come up with an awkwardly-hit ball during a crucial situation in a game the Pirates went on to lose. Nevermind the fact it was the second time Doumit had ever played the position in his life.

Jim Tracy,

Then the Pirates went out and got a first baseman, so Doumit was again shuffled to right field. Now, it's been revealed that because of some wacky loophole, he has an extra option somehow and might even start the season in AAA. Naturally, this is the most logical solution since Ryan Doumit can not only bat from the left side, but hit home runs as well, and these are two things the Pirates generally shy away from.

Humberto Cota - The Pirates/Office Space thread is a popular one, and so this is a conversation I like to imagine actually taking place:

"So, uh, Humberto, you are a...backup catcher?"

"Yes, that's right. I'm currently the longest-tenured Pirate, so I know the pitching staff extremely well."

"But technically, you can't actually hit, and hitting seems to be part of the job description for a Major League Baseball player."

"Well, no...but occasionally, on the rare instances when I do make contact, I sometimes can hit it as far as the warning track..."

"Look, Bert, we're going to cut to the chase. What exactly would you say it is you do here?"

"I already told you! I'm Mexican, I deal with the Hispanic pitchers so Jim Tracy doesn't have to! I catch once a week to keep Ronny Paulino from dying of overexhaustion from having to catch way too many 10-pitch at-bats because Paul Maholm refuses to attack the strike zone. I'm a goddamn backup catcher! What the hell is wrong with you people?"

Seriously, though, Humberto Cota is just about the most useless player in Major League Baseball. The problem is, Jim Tracy is a traditional head-in-his-ass "baseball man," and insists on having a true backup catcher whose only purpose is to rot on the bench waiting for the starter to suffer some fluke injury. Because clearly, if someone who actually has value as a pinch-hitter, like Ryan Doumit, is the only "backup catcher" on the roster, that puts the team in the precarious situation of using Doumit and then having Ronny Paulino stub his toe in the 8th inning. Because there's no way at least one of the 24 other guys could kneel behind home plate and catch a ball for an inning and a half and not completely embarrass themselves. And since this situation occurs way more often than once a season, it's simply not a risk worth taking.

Mike Ryan - This guy may have actually been cut already, I forget. He's not actually a good baseball player, but he's from the Pittsburgh area and is actually having a pretty nice spring. He's left handed and one of his only plus attributes is power, but it shouldn't be enough to warrant carrying two left-handed backup corner outfielders.

Xavier Nady - I'm listing Nady here as a protest to the fact that he's virtually been cemented into the 5th spot in the lineup. The guy who has one walk and zero extra-base hits in 29 Grapefruit League at-bats. Before you get in my face about Spring Training stats being meaningless, know that it's basically a continuation of his performance after arriving from the Mets last July, when he piled up 11 walks and 3 home runs in 203 at-bats as a Pirate. At the time, we were willing to use PNC's goofy dimensions as an excuse for the lack of power, but I have a feeling the angry yinzers will not be so lenient this time. It's okay, maybe if I say "Andrew McCutchen" three times into my mirror the savior of baseball in Pittsburgh will suddenly appear in right field at PNC Park.

My choices would be Doumit, Eldred, Kelly, McLouth, and Matos. Jim Tracy is probably going to pick the exact opposite.

The Starting Rotation Derby

If you didn't know a single thing about baseball and just started paying attention some random spring, you'd think that the 5th starter is the most important role in baseball. Such is the hype that is given to a competition that essentially boils down to who is the least bad in most cases.

In the Pirates' case, the team always heads into March with one or two clear-cut favorites, and it's always nearly impossible to beat these favorites out. This year, there was a twist, because the battle was really for the "fourth starter" because the Pirates handed Tony Armas Jr. a multi-million dollar contract just to be guaranteed of a 4.50 ERA and virtually made him a lock before he even signed. Being honest, the $3 million the Pirates are giving Armas is actually a pretty good deal in the current market for starting pitchers.

So the battle for the one open rotation spot wasn't actually supposed to be a battle, but supposed lock Tom Gorzelanny shit his pants every time he took the mound. Let's examine the contestants for the 2007 version of the annual 5th Starter Derby:

Contestant #1: Shane Youman
Credentials:
Former 43rd-round draft pick
Eligible for Nigerian citizenship
Bizarre example of someone becoming better after converting from relieving to starting
Made AAA debut at age 26
2.91 ERA in September MLB cameo
Owner of a bitchin' gumbo recipe
Better at wearing his hat at an angle than Shawn Chacon
Spring 2007: 1 earned run in 9 1/3 innings

BZZT!

Contestant #2: Sean Burnett
Credentials:
Former 1st-round draft pick
First prospect to ever fully become an object of my man-love
2.84 ERA after first 8 career MLB starts as 21-year-old in 2004 before left arm fell off
Took picture with me at PirateFest 2005
Now two years removed from arm reattachment surgery
Better at wearing his hat at an angle than Shawn Chacon despite being unmistakably white
Spring 2007: 5 hits, no earned runs, and 9 Ks in 11 1/3 innings

BZZT!

Contestant #3: Tom Gorzelanny
Credentials:
Former 2nd-round draft pick, thus avoiding law of physics that states all pitchers drafted by the Pirates in the first round will undergo major surgery at some point before the age of 25.
Really goofy looking
Led National League in Most Misspellings of Last Name by Own Team's Fans
The only left-handed Pirates pitching prospect that could potentially strike out more than 120 batters in a season
3.79 ERA in 11-start stint last summer, marred by uncharacteristic wildness
Spring 2007: 9.45 ERA, 24 hits, 14 walks in 20 innings

DING DING DING WE HAVE A WINNER

Okay, I don't have a problem with Gorzelanny winning the job based on last year's performance, but the posturing that Jim Tracy and company have been doing borders on ridiculous. All spring the mantra has been "may the best man win," and I don't think you can ask Sean Burnett and Shane Youman to have done a whole lot more than they did. Something is clearly off with Gorzo, and I'd just as soon he iron it out in Indianapolis before he gets shelled in his first four starts. I love Burnett and Youman and I want both of them to be in the Pirates rotation by the end of the year. Preferably at the expense of Armas and Maholm (who I just don't think is all that good).

Oh, and while we're on the subject of 5th starters...

This is absolutely fantastic news. Apart from 1997, 2003 is my favorite season in recent memory. 2003 was the year of Matt Stairs riverwatch, Reboulet's Army, and, of course, the ball of kerosene that is Julian "Scarecrow" Tavarez. Scarecrow generally leads the league in ejections, causing benches to clear, and suspensions. He's pretty much single-handedly responsible for lighting the fire under the epic Lloyd McClendon/Tony La Russa feud, a feat he managed to accomplish while pitching for both teams.

I'm reasonably sure he was getting away with scuffing the ball for a while, because during his season with the Pirates, his ground ball/fly ball ratio was an astounding 3.35 and he gave up just one home run in 83 2/3 innings all year. Since then, his GB/FB rates have declined and his home run totals have risen, coincidentally starting around the same time Lloyd pulled the Asshole La Russa trick, except Lloyd turned out to be better at it and actually got Scarecrow suspended for all that gunk he keeps on his hat.

It gets better, though. As the schedule falls now, Tavarez stands to pitch on April 13, the same night I happen to have four tickets to Red Sox vs. Angels at Fenway Park. It's fate. It has to be.

I'll just have to put up with the incessant griping by Red Sox fans about how "bad" Julian Tavarez is. Seriously, if you don't want Julian Tavarez on your team, you clearly don't understand or enjoy the sport of baseball in the slightest. So go fuck yourselves.

Bullpen, bullpen, who's in the bullpen?

Last, but certainly not least (especially not least in the eyes of Dave Littlefield), we get to that all-important relief corps. In the last ten years (now that 1997 is actually 11 seasons ago, which is really not a comforting thought at all), the best chance the Pirates had of being competitive was 2003. They had the lineup and the rotation to be competitive, at least until the trading deadline fiasco that we don't like to talk about around here (although I'm sure Brandon will be more than happy to explain it in great detail). But the bullpen that season, led by All-Star Mike Williams and his 6.27 ERA, was an arson squad. This was a season in which Joe Beimel pitched in 69 games. This is never a good thing.

I can't shake the nagging feeling that the bullpen, a perceived strength coming into the season, is again going to let the team down in a big way. The biggest question marks are about whether Salomon Torres can handle closing and Matt Capps (who's been abysmal this spring) can bounce back from making the third-most appearances by any rookie pitcher ever. The other two didn't have careers after that. This does not bode well for a pitcher who only has one pitch, as Capps does.

The rest of the bullpen has shaken out pretty much as planned, with Damaso Marte attempting to reprise his role as the lefty specialist. John Grabow got hurt last week and still hasn't even thrown from a mound, and is likely headed to the DL. This is really a blessing in disguise because John Grabow has never actually been good and it'll give some other loogies like Juan Perez a chance to see if they can be decent.

That leaves two more spots, which was revealed in Monday's Post-Gazette would go to two of Dan Kolb, Josh Sharpless, and Jonah Bayliss. Marty McLeary, sadly, seems destined for AAA. Of the three, I'd much prefer the latter two, because I'm liking Kolb less and less as the spring progresses. Even when Kolb was good, he set records for fewest strikeouts by a 30-save pitcher. Now that he's not good anymore, I'm not sure I ever want him coming into a game with runners on base.

I actually would most prefer for Kolb (or anyone besides Torres, really) to become the closer, because it'd mean Torres could perform the role in which he most thrives (i.e. pitching every single day), and whoever the closer is couldn't possibly be harder to endure than Mike Williams' "walk em full, strike out the side" mentality to racking up robust save numbers.

Meanwhile, Shawn Chacon gets to hang around and be a $3 million version of Ryan Vogelsong. White cloth has never been so expensive.

Shawn Chacon has a fun celebrity doppelganger though, in the form of Travis "Schleprok" McCoy. Chacon's a lot fatter, but that's who I think of whenever I see Chacon on the mound with his jauntily-angled hat.

TAKE A LOOK AT MY MOP UP MAN
HE'S THE ONLY ONE WE GOT
NOT MUCH OF A MOP UP MAN
HE NEVER SEEMS TO GET PEOPLE OUT

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So, is this the year the Pirates finally exorcise the demons?

Probably not, and I'll continue to want to break things every time I see this image. But at least we still have Ian Snell and Bob Walk bobblehead giveaways to look forward to.

Upper Management Written All Over Him

2007-03-25T21:31:00.000-04:00

As you may or may not have already heard, Julian Tavarez is taking over as the fifth starter for the Sox in the wake of Jon Papelbon's return to the closer position and Jon Lester's recovery from lymphoma. Tavarez made six starts for Boston last year, recording a respectable 4.01 ERA in that span, and even pitching a complete game. But is Tavarez really the solution at this point in time?

I say no. Tavarez has been exclusively used in middle relief this spring. Papelbon's return to the bullpen was something that was likely talked about for the duration of spring training until the announcement was made official. In light of that, wouldn't you want to prepare a backup plan? Wouldn't you want to get the players involved in these circumstances ready for this?

Tavarez has been in rotations before, recording mediocre and bad stints with the '01 Cubs (10-9, 4.52 ERA in 28 starts) and the '02 Marlins (10-12, 5.39 ERA in 27 starts). Supporters of the move will be quick to point to this. Tavarez's numbers were decent in his time as a starter last year, but Tavarez has started exactly zero games in spring training. Other pitchers in the system were making starts in Fort Myers, and were doing well enough to get consideration for the spot.

Kyle Snyder's push for the spot was likely rejected because of his not-so-stellar history in the Majors. Snyder's spring numbers were impressive (0-0, 2.89 ERA) in 3 starts and 5 appearances overall. But a simple glance at his career line (6-14, 5.94 ERA) tells a much different story. Snyder's past struggles rule him out completely. I would probably have more of a problem with Snyder getting the job than Tavarez.

The only other real candidate for this job was Kason Gabbard. Gabbard seemed like the real go-to guy in this situation. He racked up some solid numbers both in his stint with the club in 2006 (25.1 IP, 1-3, 3.51 ERA in four starts and seven appearances total) and in spring training (4 GS, 1-1, 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.9 WHIP). If Gabbard had never reached Fenway before, I could understand the decision. But Gabbard proved that if he can get run support, he can win. Why not give the kid a shot?

I understand that the move is almost completely based on Tavarez's successful stint last August and September. But look at his innings pitched in those starts. Just twice did he make it out of the sixth. If Tavarez can't pitch for more than 5-6 innings every time out, it's going to take a toll on the bullpen. In that case, Boston may as well just start Papelbon until Lester comes back. Papelbon trained in the off-season the same way Derek Lowe did in 2002- strengthening his arm and shoulder so he would have the endurance to go out there every five days. Lowe was almost immediately ready to go out and pitch long innings every five days, and Papelbon could've definitely done the same.

Personally, I have no problem with the decision to bring paps back as the closer. Shoulder issues at the end of last year indicate that he would probably have trouble lasting a full year in the starter role. Joel Pineiro's lack of experience does not bode well either. But to bring in someone else who is unproven just doesn't seem like the right call. If the Sox expect to ever get anything out of Gabbard, this is the perfect opportunity to let him show his stuff. Unfortunately, he won't even get a chance. Hopefully I'm wrong and Julian goes out and gets a quality start (or better) every time he's on the mound. I just don't see it happening.

Deb in accounting wins your pool

2007-03-23T13:38:00.000-04:00

"1's and 2's seem like a good idea, except Wisconsin. My ex-boyfriend was from there and he smelled like raw caviar.

David Carr's reign of terror is finally over.

2007-03-23T12:30:00.001-04:00

Finally tired of bounced passes to running backs, defensive lineman's hands, or slot receivers, the Texans did what they should've done last offseason: rid the team of David Carr. Carr had become something less than the sum of his parts; he was seen as the total package coming into the league. He threw side-arm, sure, but he was athletic, accurate, and had the arm to throw the deep ball. I'm not one for sports psychology, and I won't play one here, but somewhere along the way, these tools did not translate. Gary Kubiak lost all confidence in Carr to throw the deep ball, and he was benched at points during last season. Oh sure, he had the best completion percentage in the NFL last year, but you or I could complete 70% of our passes if they were all screens and slants.

Now, correct conventional wisdom, established back in 2002, became that David Carr was playing on a bad team with a bad offensive line, and you can't throw the ball downfield if you never get time to. However, somewhere along the way, the Texans line moved from "historically awful" to just "bad". Last year, they were 27th in adjusted sack rate (as compiled by Football Outsiders), which is still bad, but not the heights of historical ineptitude that came from Seth Wand, Chester Pitts, and Tony Bos...wait he never played. They had finished dead last twice, and 30th another time. I posit that Carr bought into this and simply started trying to do too much, too fast. Not only did he become turnover prone and unable to make the long throw, but he also started to scramble at the slightest hint that a block wouldn't hold.

I also think the CW that Carr, freed from the oppressive environments of his youth, will suddenly blossom into a capable quarterback is dead wrong. Carr never got over the issues of his rookie season, and putting him in Minnesota or Miami isn't an automatic cure for five years of taking punishment (some self-inflicted) everytime he dropped back for a throw. He even lost the confidence of his teammates, leading Dunta Robinson to say: "We haven't won. I'm not saying it's David's fault, and I'm not saying he can't be a great quarterback with another team. But he's been here for five years, and the best we've been able to do is 7-9. I just think it's time for us to make some moves that'll help the Texans become a winning team."

Either way, two of the "new triplets" that were bandied about in 2004, when the Texans went 7-9, are soon on their way out the door; Domanick Williams and David Carr will not be on the team next season. What does this leave the Texans with? Andre Johnson, DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams, and 500,000 original jokes about Vince Young, Reggie Bush, and the offensive line.

Did trading for Matt Schaub make sense? Absolutely. Was it worth giving up two second rounders? Probably not. The fact of the matter is though, coaches and GM's don't get very long to establish themselves in this business. With Schaub's trade value and money, the Texans are essentially putting themselves into a gambit that Schaub has to be a top 10 QB to equal his value. While thats possible, it's not exceedingly likely behind a line that still needs help stopping the pass. However, I happen to think he's a much better gamble than either JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, or any of the lower round picks. I don't know that he's two 2nd rounders better, but he's got the best chance of any of the QB's on the FA/trade markets or draft to become a reliable quarterback.

Another thing to consider is that the Kubiak regime actually managed to find players in the draft last year (okay, Charley Casserley was still "acting GM" but at that point his opinions were about as relevant as the first third-rounder he ever picked for the Texans), nabbing Williams, Ryans, Owen Daniels, Winston, Charles Spencer, Vonta Leach, and Anthony Maddox, who all played roles on the team last year. Wheras Casserley's best draft move was having the fortune to have Ricky Williams fall to him and ransom the pick for Mike Ditka's entire drafts for two years, with optional rights to his pool on alternate weekends. Kubiak and Smith have the credibility with me as a fan to not question this move. Yet.

This is essentially the new deal for the Texans, Kubiak, and Smith; If Schaub succeeds, it means the end of being a national punchline. If he fails, they'll be the Houston Not Reggie Bush's for another five years. Either way, it's brought back some sense of excitement to the ground; if you're going to lose, you might as well find a new way to lose.

Wait, I have a preview too! East

2007-03-15T03:05:00.000-04:00

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   N. Carolina  99.26%  81.43%   67.94%   48.69%   32.61%  20.90%
2   Georgetown   96.59%  81.33%   67.30%   32.43%   17.66%   9.09%
4   Texas        88.43%  55.85%   14.54%    6.11%    2.14%   0.69%
9   Mich. St.    60.71%  12.72%    7.24%    3.09%    1.10%   0.36%
3   Wash. St.    81.51%  52.09%   14.57%    3.27%    0.83%   0.19%
12  Arkansas     55.18%  24.33%    4.61%    1.52%    0.40%   0.09%
7   Boston Coll. 64.90%  13.48%    7.16%    1.44%    0.33%   0.07%
8   Marquette    39.29%   5.82%    2.70%    0.91%    0.24%   0.06%
6   Vanderbilt   71.57%  34.34%    7.68%    1.35%    0.27%   0.05%
5   USC          44.82%  17.69%    2.86%    0.83%    0.19%   0.04%
10  Texas Tech   35.10%   4.62%    1.79%    0.22%    0.03%   0.00%
13  New Mex. St. 11.57%   2.13%    0.11%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
11  GW           28.43%   8.04%    0.90%    0.08%    0.01%   0.00%
14  Oral Roberts 18.49%   5.52%    0.52%    0.04%    0.00%   0.00%
15  Belmont       3.41%   0.57%    0.09%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  E. Kentucky   0.74%   0.03%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

North Carolina is the runaway best team in basketball in the Pomeroy ratings. I think they'll face tough challenges from Michigan State and Georgetown, but I have them advancing as my lone 1 seed (Only 2 1 seeds have advanced the last three years)

In fact, to eschew normal format (and because I want to go to sleep) here...I don't have many surprises here...1 vs 2 and every top 4 seed except WSU making the sweet sixteen. GW grabs the other slot after WSU and Vanderbilt both fall, a nation yawns.

Wait, I have a preview too! South

2007-03-15T02:49:00.000-04:00

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   Ohio St.     98.62%  82.16%   68.80%   41.49%   21.00%  11.32%
3   Texas A&M    95.07%  70.87%   46.80%   27.35%   13.31%   6.91%
2   Memphis      98.03%  73.77%   34.47%   16.88%    6.59%   2.76%
6   Louisville   71.81%  23.52%   10.88%    4.33%    1.31%   0.43%
5   Tennessee    87.40%  51.42%   12.43%    3.29%    0.68%   0.15%
9   Xavier       61.50%  12.37%    6.84%    1.89%    0.41%   0.09%
10  Creighton    67.29%  20.26%    5.54%    1.68%    0.37%   0.09%
4   Virginia     89.61%  44.80%    9.40%    2.15%    0.38%   0.07%
8   BYU          38.50%   5.37%    2.36%    0.46%    0.07%   0.01%
11  Stanford     28.19%   4.89%    1.29%    0.29%    0.05%   0.01%
7   Nevada       32.71%   5.85%    0.94%    0.18%    0.02%   0.00%
12  LB St        12.60%   2.48%    0.12%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
14  Pennsylvania  4.93%   0.72%    0.08%    0.01%    0.00%   0.00%
13  Albany       10.39%   1.30%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  C. Conn.      1.38%   0.09%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
15  North Texas   1.97%   0.12%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

I think it's interesting that Central Connecticut has the best chance to beat a #1 by the numbers. Not that it'll happen, just interesting. I have Ohio State shamelessly into the Elite Eight, but I think theres a chance they'll fall to Xavier.

15) North Texas vs. 2) Memphis North Texas; if it looks like a Conference USA team, plays like a Conference USA team (207th adjusted offense), and has a name like a Conference USA team (Mean Green), it will probably fall to a team that went 16-0 against them. I originally had Creighton ousting Memphis, but I decided I was being a little too harsh on the two seeds, so I moved them up to getting squished by Texas A&M; Memphis can't shoot threes.

14) Pennsylvania vs. 3) Texas A&M I hate to jump on the Texas A&M bandwagon, but they are good, they are deep, they play great defense (8th), and shoot threes (2nd). They're my pick to the Final Four. And for the champions. This will make Jay Bilas feel self-important again.

13) Albany vs. 4) Virginia
and
12) Long Beach State vs. 5) Tennessee)
This is the weakest pod in the whole tourney and I don't even think it's close. I have Tennessee making it out of the pod, only to get rammed by Ohio State or Michigan State.

11 Stanford vs. 6 Louisville
Louisville has home court, and is good. Stanford is the worst team in the field. If Louisville weren't playing my favorite to win the championship, I'd have them advancing further.

10 Creighton vs. 7 Nevada
It's been good to have you along for the ride, Nick Fazekas. Has it really been four years now? Wow. super. Don't the door hit your ass on the way out. Enjoy playing for Tau Ceramica. I actually like Nevada's team a lot better, but this is one of those random picks. And I figure either team is due to get pounded on by Memphis.

9 Xavier vs. 9 BYU
Xavier's a phenomenal shooting team, and they shut down the perimeter, which is really BYU's strength. If I had more juevos, I'd pick a Xavier upset of OSU. I still owe Xavier big for 2003. Super Nintendo Lionel Chalmers forever!

Wait, I have a preview too! West

2007-03-15T02:27:00.000-04:00


                 2nd Rd  Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals   Champs
1   Kansas       99.19%   78.52%   66.68%   48.48%   32.32%   18.89%
2   UCLA         98.08%   67.22%   38.23%   16.59%    8.01%    3.18%
6   Duke         86.21%   51.88%   27.54%   11.37%    5.22%    1.95%
3   Pittsburgh   89.71%   43.85%   20.50%    7.35%    2.93%    0.93%
7   Indiana      71.17%   26.83%   11.68%    3.76%    1.34%    0.37%
8   Kentucky     50.09%   10.76%    6.46%    2.69%    0.97%    0.28%
9   Villanova    49.91%   10.69%    6.41%    2.67%    0.96%    0.27%
12  Illinois     50.70%   30.03%    6.59%    2.29%    0.68%    0.16%
5   Va. Tech     49.30%   28.88%    6.21%    2.12%    0.62%    0.14%
4   S. Illinois  82.89%   38.49%    7.52%    2.36%    0.63%    0.13%
10  Gonzaga      28.83%    5.86%    1.43%    0.25%    0.05%    0.01%
11  VCU          13.79%    3.05%    0.49%    0.06%    0.01%    0.00%
13  Holy Cross   17.11%    2.60%    0.13%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
14  Wright St.   10.29%    1.22%    0.12%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
15  Weber St.     1.92%    0.09%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%
16  Play-In       0.81%    0.02%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%

I think Kansas statistically is probably my second favorite #1 seed, but I really dislike their coaching and they do have a tendency to choke, so I've got them bowing out to Kentucky in the second round.

15 Weber State vs. 2 UCLA Yikes. I would love UCLA to get to the Final Four again, but I don't think it's going to happen. I have them losing to Indiana in the second round, and I'll explain further in my Indiana section.

14 Wright State vs. 3 Pittsburgh Wright State has a slight chance, but I don't think they have the shooting to pull an upset. I think pretty highly of Pittsburgh, but I don't think they'll get past Duke. Part of that is random, part of that is the fact that I remember thinking Xavier would get past Duke in 2004, when they outplayed them on the floor. Problem is, you know, Duke cheats.

13 Holy Cross vs. 4 Southern Illinois Southern Illinois is my Final Four team out of this region; They play great defense, they run a slow tempo, and they are okay at threes, despite not being quite so good at the inside shooting game. But, I think they'll get hot. They're more or less my random team I expect to do really well and catch all the breaks. Holy Cross is where Bill Simmons went to school. Fuck Bill Simmons.

12 Illinois vs. 5 Virginia Tech Illinois can't shoot and plays amazing defense, Virginia Tech doesn't do anything really well or really poorly, except avoiding turnovers. I have Illinois, cause at least one 12 has to win. They don't get past Southern Ill, but they do play a game with them where the winning team has less than 50 points.

11 VCU vs. 6 Duke Even if Duke was as bad as their record indicates (10th overall in the Pomeroy ratings), theres no way I'd ever pick against them advancing with the amount of breaks this team gets. And if that makes me a bitter west coast basketball fan, so be it. I have them getting to the sweet sixteen and losing. To Indiana. Again.

10 Gonzaga vs. 7 Indiana This is Gonzaga's least inspiring team in some time- I have no idea how it's a 10 seed. They still shoot well, they still can't play defense. Indiana can play defense, can stick the three, and will crash the glass on the undersized Bulldogs. Then they'll crash UCLA's party and Duke's party, before losing to fellow upstart Southern Illinois.

9 Villanova vs. 8 Kentucky Most even game in the tourney, IMO. I went with Kentucky's superior defense. I also decided that too many people were being down on Tubby Smith, so he should be the beneficiary of some good fortune and outcoach Bill Self on a national stage.

Wait, I have a preview too! Midwest

2007-03-15T02:21:00.000-04:00

I will explain myself like this:
1) I use a lot of stats. If you want reasons like "X will lose because they are fading down the stretch", this isn't your preview.
2) I love teams that can shoot the 3 and play good defense, I think this keeps teams in games. All the numbers used in this are from Ken Pomeroy's site.
3) I also do some random picks, just because I know the better team won't always win.

Midwest

                 2nd Rd Sweet16   Elite8   Final4   Finals  Champs
1   Florida      99.72%  78.61%   56.54%   37.69%   21.07%  10.85%
2   Wisconsin    95.91%  68.27%   48.17%   25.15%   12.31%   5.45%
4   Maryland     86.42%  62.76%   26.04%   13.59%    5.64%   2.07%
6   Notre Dame   80.30%  47.69%   18.95%    6.86%    2.29%   0.66%
10  Georgia Tech 69.95%  25.14%   13.87%    5.07%    1.72%   0.50%
3   Oregon       86.02%  44.35%   15.76%    5.08%    1.51%   0.38%
5   Butler       72.39%  27.39%    7.13%    2.48%    0.65%   0.14%
9   Purdue       50.52%  10.89%    4.67%    1.70%    0.47%   0.11%
8   Arizona      49.48%  10.50%    4.45%    1.61%    0.44%   0.10%
7   UNLV         30.05%   6.16%    2.17%    0.45%    0.09%   0.01%
12  Old Dominion 27.61%   5.63%    0.70%    0.12%    0.02%   0.00%
11  Winthrop     19.70%   5.66%    0.84%    0.11%    0.01%   0.00%
13  Davidson     13.58%   4.21%    0.47%    0.07%    0.01%   0.00%
14  Miami (OH)   13.98%   2.31%    0.21%    0.02%    0.00%   0.00%
15  TAMU - CC     4.09%   0.43%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%
16  Jackson State 0.28%   0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%   0.00%

I think we're all smart enough to pick against the 16 seeds, so I won't delve into those. I have Florida bowing out against Maryland, for the record.

15 TAMUCC vs. 2 Wisconsin - I love TAMUCC's chances in this game. I know that Wisconsin isn't a dog team, but they are missing injured center Brian Butch, and they haven't scored much without him; I think that could be key. Another reason that this game favors an upset is Wisconsin's slow pace: when you run less possessions, there are less possessions to see who the better team is. Finally, TAMUCC's strength is shooting. They were 14th in 3 points field goal %, 5th in 2pt fg%, and while Wisconsin's defense is good, turnovers are their weakest area (only 93rd). I picked TAMUCC in my bracket. I think they've got a good chance to win against a non-healthy Wisconsin squad. I don't think they'll be as fortunate to escape the 2nd round.

14 Miami (OH) vs. 3 Oregon - This team kicked a vastly superior Akron squad out so it could get it's name on the bracket for one round. Miami can't shoot. They play good defense, they have some inside game, they slow the tempo down. When it comes down to it, they have no outside shooting. This game will be closer than most expect, but Oregon will pull away, only to fall in the second round as well.

13 Davidson vs 4 Maryland - I always have a tradition of picking against these middle-tier ACC/Big East teams in the opening round out of hate, but I'm not pulling the trigger this time. I was one of the guys who took UTEP over Maryland a couple of years ago. Maryland's too good. I think Davidson would have a great chance against Butler, or Oregon even, but not against Maryland, who I have in my elite eight.

12 Old Dominion vs. 5 Butler - I don't understand how this is so many people's pick for the 12-5, I don't think Old Dominion is that good. Butler is okay, but not 5 seed material themselves. I see a Butler win and a quick dispatch in the round of 32.

11 Winthrop vs 6 Notre Dame - Another popular sleeper pick here in Winthrop. Problem is; Notre Dame is amazing. Their defense is only adequate, but they are excellent three point shooters. This is kind of the random pick here, but I'm gonna say Notre Dame puts it together on defense, and I'm going to ride them all the way to the Final Four.

10 Georgia Tech vs. 7 UNLV - Georgia Tech is led by a ton of freshman, which has led to a lot of people going against them. I have them getting to the sweet sixteen, and I like UNLV and think they could easily win this game too, but I'm going with the team that forces a lot of turnovers (almost as many as they commit), but is stellar offensively (16th in 2's, 61st in 3's) against the team that is not in the top 100 in either of them and isn't much better at playing defense.

9 Purdue vs. 8 Arizona - Matchup of two teams that are right next to each other in the Pomeroy ratings, at 22 and 23. Arizona has a dynamite inside offense and a poor defense, Purdue has...Brian Cardinal? No, he's gone. I hope. Purdue preys on turnovers, Arizona can't shoot the 3 and turns it over a lot. This game should be Purdues.

FC's MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs

2007-03-15T01:29:00.000-04:00

Offseason Analysis: My, oh my, did Cubs general manager Jim Hendry go nuts. He went all out this offseason, maybe in the wrong directions, but he still went all out, spent lots of money and brought in a new crop of...um..."talent." Gone are manager Dusty Baker and centerfielder Juan Pierre, but in are new manager Lou Piniella, new centerfielder Alfonso Soriano, new second baseman Mark DeRosa and new starting pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Additionally, Hendry shelled out the biggest contract in Cubs history to third baseman Aramis Ramirez (5 years, $75 million) only to top it the next week with the contract he gave Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million).

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: 2. That was the number of complete games that the Cubs rotation threw last season, both of which were by Rich Hill, and they were in consecutive starts in September. One of them, however was a 5 inning rain out against the Reds. Hill still struck out 10 in the 5 innings, but gave up 3 homers. The other complete game was legit, though, and was a complete game, shutout, 2 hitter against the Reds in his previous start.

Most Overlooked Player: Players can be overlooked in a bad way too, and there's one player on this team whose awfulness nobody has yet considered. Cesar Izturis put up a whopping .613 OPS [yes, on-base and slugging combined], and his name was not mentioned at all from this offseason. Shortstop was not a position that was going to be improved, and there are no in-house options other than Ronnie Cedeno, who is basically the same thing as Izturis. Between the two of them, shortstop will be awful offensively, and nobody seems to notice.

Fun prop bet: Jason Marquis home runs allowed (2006: 35; 2005: 29) vs. Derrek Lee home runs (career average 28). Also, Carlos Zambrano wins vs. Combined wins by Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. Take Lee in the first and take Zambrano in the second straight up, but expect neither to cover the spread.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Apparently, Val Pascucci is still around and he's in Cubs camp. He only has a .177 career batting average, but his player profile page on MLB.com still has him in Expos gear.

One of the last remnants of the fabled Montreal Expos

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: This depends on whose expectations we're measuring. As far as the organization goes, it's safe to say that neither Jason Marquis nor Ted Lilly will live up to whatever unreasonably high expectations the team has of them out of two rotation spots following Carlos Zambrano. The same goes for Mark Derosa, as he is unlikely to reproduce the .296/.357/.456 line he put up last season. However, the grandaddy of them all is Alfonso Soriano. His expectations are high all around, whereas for the other players it's mostly internal expectations which are not necessarily shared by the fans as a whole. Soriano, on the other hand, was the big splash this offseason, and everyone knows that he is now a Chicago Cub. The thing is, he's not the final piece to this Cubs puzzle. He'll probably do what he's always done and that is hit .280 and hit 35 homers or so, just this time it will be slightly more valuable out of centerfield than it was last season out of left field. I don't expect him to post a higher OBP than Juan Pierre did last season (.330), and that's not very good out of the leadoff spot, especially when coupled with a high strikeout rate. While he'll certainly be a great improvement over Pierre, that speaks more of the poor season that Pierre had last year. Soriano will be good, and will produce as his career says he would, and while that may be enough to satisfy some fans, he's not the top-10-in-the-Majors type player that the organization paid for or expect.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: This is none other than Ryan "The Riot" Theriot. The players who fit this bill normally project as only utility infielders, and Theriot is just that. He can play all of the infield positions as well as some outfield, and he might just be able to do something with the stick, too, as last year he hit .328/.412/.522. He would be a better option to start at shortstop than Izturis, but he's a great utility infielder as it is. Of course, none of this matters if he doesn't actually make the team, which amazingly he might not.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: It might be too early to write off Ryan Harvey, but it's not looking good for him. He was the sixth overall pick in 2003, is only 22, made the single-A All Star game in 2005, and has shown some power [20 homers last season, 24 in 2005]. However, He's never posted an on-base percentage above .330 [.327 is his high which came in 58 games in low-A in 2004], has never walked more than 25 times in a season, and has struck out more than 120 times each of the past two years. He's certainly not the prospect that he once was, but he's heading down a path that will make him into the "typical, bargain bin corner outfielder." It's looking more and more like he's going to peak as Jacque Jones.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season:
Piniella Goes Apeshit: Ejected for seventh consecutive game amidst 15 game losing streak

A haiku about this teams chances:
New players, faces.
Lots of money spent this time,
Still gonna be fifth.

NCAA Tournament preview - Final Four predictions

2007-03-14T22:22:00.000-04:00

At last, here it is. My definitive predictions of this year's Final Four and NCAA National Championship Game.

Not much to talk about here. The Hoyas are the sexy pick to do some pretty big things, so I'm taking Acie Law IV and his gang on pretty much the same grounds that I had the Aggies beat Ohio State in the Elite 8.

As I said, with Kansas, something has got to give eventually, considering how highly touted they are year after year. My bracket thinks this is their year.

Whew. I'm glad this is over with. Now let the games begin.

NCAA Tournament preview - South Regional

2007-03-14T21:46:00.000-04:00

The San Antonio Regional, I think, is where my bracket is going to be made or broken. Many, many people are super high on Ohio State. Myself, on the other hand, am taking my national runner-up from this bracket, and it's not the Buckeyes.

We'll start in the top half, where OSU shouldn't have much of a problem motoring to the Elite 8. The 8/9 is an interesting matchup between two mid-major at-larges. Come to think of it, four of the six at-large mid-majors are playing in two first-round games. I don't know how that works. I guess from one point of view, it ensures mid-major progression, but on the other hand, it eliminates the upsets of power conference teams that everyone loves oh so much.

Here, we have Brigham Young and Xavier. I'm taking BYU, for no real reason. Again, it's pretty inconsequential because the winner will just get Greg Oden'd in the second round. But I did find this line from the ESPN "Blue Ribbon Tourney Guide" to be amusing:

...with six players having served Mormon missions, the Cougars can put an
experienced group of players on the floor.

I'm sorry, but can someone remind me of how serving Mormon missions has anything to do whatsoever with playing basketball?

Elsewhere, we have probably the most aggravating seed in my eyes, which is Virginia at a 4. I guess that's their reward for sharing the ACC lead with North Carolina, but still, what a ridiculous seed. Their nonconference schedule was utterly underwhelming, including losses to Purdue, Utah, and Appalachian State at home. In conference, they beat Maryland twice. And that's really it. They piled up the rest of their 11 wins against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, and other really mediocre teams. They didn't even beat UNC or anything. Honestly I wouldn't be at all surprised if Albany pulled the upset here, although I'm still pushing the Cavs to the second round.

Tennesse, even as inconsistent as it's been, has a pretty easy path to the Sweet 16 for a 5 seed, where it'll just get beaten by the superior Buckeyes. It'd be pretty wild/entertaining if Long Beach State upset the Vols, but I doubt it'll happen.

The lower portion of the regional has one of the more interesting sequences in the entire tournament. The first talking point is Memphis, which once again has been rewarded with a 2 seed for being king of shit heap mountain. I'm taking Nevada more out of spite than anything. Also because I think Nevada is actually good, and played more real teams than Memphis did and still lost only one more game. Yet it's 5 seeds lower than Memphis.

The other, and much bigger, talking point is Louisville playing their first two games in Lexington, Kentucky, essentially rendering those games home games, which is an absurd advantage to give a 6 seed. The reason I'm griping is because I have Texas A&M coming out of this regional, and they'll most likely have to take down the Cardinals in the second round, provided they put away UPenn first.

BUT, if the Aggies can slip past Louisville, they get to play the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in San Antonio, which is a huge geographic benefit for A&M. This is a big part of the reason I am taking A&M to the Final Four over Ohio State. It's a risk, but the reward could be gigantic when I'm in the minority of people who picked A&M to go to Atlanta and it actually happens. If not, oh well. My bracket will be screwed. But that's part of the fun of this whole process!

So, this is it then. My Final Four picks in a minute, but first, the obligatory picture of the San Antonio Regional.

NCAA Tournament preview - East Regional

2007-03-14T20:43:00.000-04:00

Fittingly enough for a regional whose semi-finals and final take place in New Jersey, this regional happens to contain one of the messiest parts of the entire tournament. I am talking, of course, about the little branch of the bracket that is home to Vanderbilt (a 6 seed based seemingly entirely on the fact that it beat Florida that one time), George Washington (third-best team in the A-10), Washington State (considered the "overlooked" team of the Pac-10, probably for a legitimate reason - they're boring), and Oral Roberts (okay, I got nothing except they're a 14 seed).

Honestly, anything could happen in that little chunk of the East Regional. So just for shits and giggles, I'm taking upsets all the way around. GW over Vanderbilt, which won't please a certain step-uncle of mine, but it's not his fault (or mine) that the selection committee sucks.

And because I haven't picked a team to go on a crazy run yet, and I usually do at least once a tournament (Utah to the Elite Eight two years ago comes to mind, and I came close), I'm riding Oral Roberts to the Sweet 16, mainly just for shits and giggles. And also because it's only a few points to lose, since no matter what team makes it out of this little clusterfuck, they'll just get picked apart by Georgetown. So I can feel good about having at least one wacky run in my bracket and still not worry about the consequences too much if I'm wrong.

On the subject of Georgetown, they'll get past Texas Tech in the second Round. I say Texas Tech because I'll give Bob Knight the benefit of the doubt even though the Red Raiders aren't actually any good this year. Knight's gotta be good for one tournament win, especially over a Boston College team that committed the unfortunate transgression of cutting Akida McLain, grade school mate of a certain blogger.

The upper portion of the bracket is a little more cut-and-dried. My 5/12 upset is already out of the way, so I'm safe to pick USC over Arkansas. Which is good, because Arkansas doesn't have a single win that impresses me. The Razorbacks beat Vanderbilt twice in a week, but then again, that's Vanderbilt. I'll give them props for beating West Virginia, because it's always good when those assholes lose, but it's still not any more impressive because the Mountaineers curl up into a fetal position whenever they leave Morgantown.

This 8/9 game is the one that was probably the easiest for me to pick. How Marquette, which has a whole bevy of quality wins to show off, and went 10-6 in the Big East, is only one seed higher than Michigan State, which barely finished .500 in the Big Ten and didn't do anything remotely impressive on the road, is beyond me. But I'll take the Marquette Dominic Jameses without much of a thought, and I'll add to that a hope that Dan Fitzgerald gets shut out in the entire tournament because that guy is a tool.

The smarmy look that only a douchebag who can
unjustifiably pull ridiculous treys out of his ass would own.

I don't think UNC will have much of a problem reaching the Sweet 16, with only Eastern Kentucky and the Marquette/Mich. St. winner in their way. However, I will say that Texas scares me. The first seven players in their rotation are freshmen and sophomores, including, of course, the peerless Kevin Durant. The problem is, can the kids around Durant step it up consistently enough to allow the Longhorns to make a prolonged run in the tournament? I could see Texas failing to make it out of the first weekend, but then again, I could see them winding up in the Final Four.

What I've settled on is a loss to Georgetown in the Elite Eight, overcoming a complacent Tar Heels squad in the Sweet 16. I still can't get visions of a shoeless Donatas Zavackas out of my head, and they serve as a constant reminder that often the teams that are able to make runs in the tournament are those that have a bona fide NBA-caliber stud anchoring their team, regardless of the supporting cast. And it's not even like Durant's help is even that bad, either. There's a reason the Longhorns quietly went 12-4 in the Big 12 and barely succumbed to Kansas in the conference championship.

And that, my friends, is that. Three down, four to go.

NCAA Tournament preview - West Regional

2007-03-14T15:32:00.000-04:00

This would be the second most-boring regional, except that it has Pitt.

This regional also benefits from the play-in game, which I did call correctly (like it was a tough call to make, since Florida A&M is horrendous).

See, I wouldn't lie to you.

I'm also busting out the required 12/5 upset in this bracket, taking Illinois over Virginia Tech, who I am robustly unimpressed with. I mean it's not as if Illinois is any good, but Virginia Tech is a five seed pretty much solely because it beat UNC twice. Of course, it also lost to ACC Tournament and N.I.T. upstarts NC State three times. The clincher here is the fact that it lost to Marshall. For one thing, Marshall is in West Virignia. No one wishing to take itself seriously should ever lose to teams from that state. For another thing, you should never, ever lose to any team that goes 7-9 in Conference USA.

We also get another 8/9 matchup that could potentially be fun, although I'm pretty convinced Nova will pull this one out. Gonzaga could also upset Indiana maybe, but without Josh Heytvelt I don't have any faith in them whatsoever. If Gonzaga wants any respect, it really should be going undefeated in that joke of a conference. People will point to the solid non-conference schedule, but that was before the team's best player got caught with hallucinogenic substances.

The other intriguing first-round matchup, and not just for personal reasons, is, of course, Duke/VCU. It's pretty clear that Duke is a 6 seed just because they're Duke, and VCU likes taking their game to teams, something that Duke might not be able to cope with. I still took Duke to the second round, if only because I have a hard time envisioning Coach K. (as little as I like him) losing to the first-year coach of an 11 seed.

I've seen people bandying Wright State around as a possible upset, but maybe that's just because I actively go looking for people who are trash talking Pitt just so I can call them out. Most of these people base their opinions on the Big East Championship Game and the fact that Pitt traditionally underachieves in the tourney. In reality, Wright State has one player over 6'6", and that one player is 6'8". Is this team serious? Aaron Gray could throw down 20 and grab 15 boards in his sleep against these midgets.

I'd also actually rather face Duke in the second round than VCU. VCU does the things that has given Pitt trouble this year, such as use little fast guards that like to run at people, and they also employ a full court press often. Pitt matches up much better against Duke. I think they'd be good bets to win, either way, of course.

I have the favorites advancing in all of the other second-round matchups, too, setting up another (boring) 1/4, 3/2 setup in the Sweet 16. I think Kansas takes care of Southern Illinois without too much trouble, and if I didn't have such an enormous rooting interest in Pitt, I'd tend to say UCLA does the same, especially playing the game at San Jose. UCLA doesn't leave California at all until the Final Four. That can't be fair, can it?

However, the only reason I've even watched college basketball since the Donatus Zavackas debacle in the 2003 Sweet 16 is so I could see Pitt finally get over that hump and at least make an appearance in the Elite 8. For that reason, I have to take Pitt. Plus, the last time we had such a cool master/apprentice matchup, the apprentice came out in better shape.

Yes, I did just make my second cheesy Darth Vader reference in the span of a couple weeks, but the Howland/Dixon coaching matchup would obviously be the most over-hyped story of the entire Sweet 16 if it happened. Too bad Jamie Dixon can't choke Aaron Afflalo with his mind from across the court.

Seriously though, I will offer one reason that Pitt may actually have a chance in this game. The Bruins lack a dominant post player. Aaron Gray has three inches on UCLA's tallest player, and four on their most proficient rebounder. He really will be the key to this game.

Anyway, to make up for my concession here, I've decided to not be a complete homer this year, and I'm taking Kansas over Pitt to the Final Four. I realize I haven't really said much about Kansas so far, but I really think something has got to give with this team. After probably two of the most inexplicable early-round losses in a row, they're really due to stop fucking people's brackets over.

Bracket:

NCAA Tournament preview - Midwest Regional

2007-03-14T13:43:00.000-04:00

I realize I'm pretty pressed for time here, but that's my own fault for dawdling so much on other topics. At any rate, I'm going to try to hurry up and discuss my bracket (which is apparently FC's official bracket since no one else has bothered to write anything) one regional at a time, hopefully finishing before the games are actually played tomorrow.

I'll start with the Midwest (St. Louis) Regional, since it's in the upper left of the bracket and as such, it's logically the first place people look.

This regional seems to be the only one where people aren't griping about some kind of seeding issue. There's the occasional "Winthrop is way too high" whining, but that's pretty much it. As such, this seems to be the most boring of the regionals in terms of upset potential, so it's probably good that I'm getting it out of the way first.

In the first round, I don't really have my finger on any upset possibilities. Some people seem to think Notre Dame is ripe for a letdown against Winthrop, but I really don't think a team that took Georgetown down to the wire in the Big East semis is going to lose to a team that played absolutely nobody all year long. Looking at Winthrop's early season schedule, they played some teams that quite frankly I'm pretty sure don't actually exist. North Greenville? Presbyterian? Limestone? How do these games even count? Winthrop then proceeded to go 1-4 against other teams that are in the tournament, their only win at Old Dominion (which I'm not sold on, either, as I'll explain in a second).

The other sexy first-round upset pick here is Old Dominion over Butler. Normally Bill Simmons is a complete idiot, but in his NCAA Tournament preview, he actually said something that made a little bit of sense:

This happens every March: There's an obvious 12-over-5 upset pick (in this case, Old Dominion over Butler) that sucks everybody in and/or freaks Vegas out to the point that they practically make the game a pick 'em (in this case, Butler by 1.5) ... and then the No. 5 team ends up winning and we all feel dumb.

While Bill Simmons doesn't actually know anything about college basketball, I have to agree with him in this case. As beastly as the CAA is, it's really not. And Old Dominion wasn't even the best team in the CAA. I mean, it's obviously a distinct possibility that ODU advances, but I'm not gonna get caught up in the OMG 12/5 frenzy.

One thing the NCAA selection committee seems to always do a really good job of is picking 8/9 games. They usually are real toss-ups, and we've had some pretty epic contests come out of the 8/9 games in recent years. This year is no exception, and the only technical upset I'm calling in the first round in the St. Louis Regional is #9 Purdue over #8 Arizona (although according to this thread at Pitt Blather, the 9 seed actually wins more of these games than the 8 seed). I can't even pinpoint a real reason here. It's just something I feel. Both teams have been extremely inconsistent all year long, and I guess I'm just making this pick based on the fact that I like the way Purdue hung with Ohio State for most of their Big Ten semifinal game. It doesn't really matter that much, since the winner will just get humped into submission by Al Horford in the second round.

Speaking of the second round, I've got all the favorites progressing to set up a Sweet 16 with all four of the top seeds. Boring, I told you. I think Notre Dame is most capable of pulling an upset, over Oregon, although I think the game swings in Oregon's favor in large part due to the fact that the game would be in Spokane, Washington, which is kind of far from South Bend but not all that far from Eugene. I'm not sold on Maryland at this point, either, but the Terps would be playing Butler, which might not even get past ODU. Either way, the last sentence of the above paragraph applies here, too.

Wisconsin was one of my early-season favorites. They looked awesome early on, but they've slowed down quite a bit recently, and didn't even put up a fight in the Big Ten Championship Game. I went from talking about them as a championship contender to knocking them out in the Sweet 16. I think even Notre Dame, if it gets past Oregon, could beat the Badgers at this point. Hell, it wouldn't even be out of the question to see UNLV upset Wisconsin, although the game being played in Chicago will help Alando Tucker and company avoid that.

That all sets up a Florida/Oregon regional final, and I'm taking Oregon, for a few reasons. First of all, occasionally I'll let a personal bias pick sneak in, and this is one of those instances. I make no secret of the fact that I have no love lost for the SEC, and on top of that, I hate it when teams repeat in March Madness. One of the more fun aspect about college sports (from the perspective of someone who isn't attached to a single team) is how volatile they are, with the turnovers caused each year by graduation and going pro. Florida winning again would be terrible. But I really do think the Ducks are capable of pulling this off. They've had their poor spots this season, but they're really as a complete team as there is in this regional.

Here is my final bracket prediction for the St. Louis Regional:

FC's MLB Preview: Chicago White Sox

2007-03-13T19:43:00.000-04:00

Offseason Analysis: Kenny Williams didn't buy into the free agent market like his crosstown counterpart Jim Hendry, mostly staying out of the bidding wars and instead trying to alter the team through trades. He shipped 2005 hero and 2006 bust Neal Cotts to the Cubs for David Aardsma in the first Cubs/White Sox trade since 1998 when the Cubs acquired Matt Karchner for Jon Garland. Williams also tried to capitalize on the insane starting pitching market by shipping off a couple of his starters for minor leaguers. Freddy Garcia was sent to the Phillies for Gio Gonzalez [who was just traded by the White Sox a year earlier for Jim Thome] and Gavin Floyd. In a seemingly odd move, Williams then turned around and traded 23 year old Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers for their top prospect, John Danks and two other minor league pitchers. Ex-Cub Andy Sisco was also brought in from Kansas City in exchange for ex-Cub Ross Gload. Mike MacDougal [who finished 2006 with the Sox], Toby Hall and Luis Terrero all recieved free agent contracts from the White Sox, none of which broke the bank.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Bobby Jenks posted a 7.04 ERA against the Royals in 8 games...however, in those 8 games, all of which were save opportunities, he converted seven of them.

Most Overlooked Player: There's a fun reliever poised to make the team by the name of Charlie Haeger. He came on last season in September and pitched well by having a 3.44 ERA in 18 and a third innings. He also had 19 strikeouts to go along with 13 walks, but it should be known that the kid is a knuckleballer. He won't turn 24 until September, and actually retired in 2003 before coming back and picking up the knuckler. He'll be one to watch bounce around for the next 25 years.

Fun prop bet: White Sox Wins vs. Cubs Wins + 10. Yeah, spot the Cubs 10 wins and you might have an even bet. You might have to expand that to 15, though. But still, even with all the money, take the White Sox. You've also got the ever fun Mark Prior wins + Kerry Wood wins + 5 vs. Mark Buehrle wins. The Cubs haven't won that one in a while, and won't again this year.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Wikipedia Gonzalez has been invited to camp and is trying to win a job as the third organizational catcher in AAA waiting for Toby Hall to get hurt. Eduardo Perez is also a non-roster invitee, and it's at least a little surprising that he didn't get a major league job somewhere since his .253/.324/.452 line is a lot better than some of the other guys that got Major League deals.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Relief pitchers historically have been rather volatile. With the exception of the great ones, closers are prone to season long implosions, oftentimes without any warning. It's far too soon to declare Bobby Jenks one of the all time greats, but at the same time it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say that he could impolde. He put up some less than impressive numbers in the second half, posting a 5.72 ERA and a .836 OPS against.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Scott Podsednik almost took the naming rights from David Eckstein back in 2005 when the White Sox won the World Series, and as long as he keeps showing the grit, hustle and [most importantly] pluck, he should have this category locked up for the rest of his career.

So. Much. PLUCK.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Because a lot of the 2007 White Sox predictions going into the offseason rested on the arm of Brandon McCarthy, it would seem only fitting to put John Danks here, if for no other reason than the Sox are giving up quite a bit now and hoping for a bigger return in a year or two. It's not that Danks' numbers in hte minor leagues are all that bad, except that in each of 2003, 2004 and 2005 he ran into a bit of a rough patch after getting promoted, but that could be expected from a young pitcher going through the minors. So much is going to be expected of the kid because of what fans thought of McCarthy. I'll put him here for lack of anyone better, but note that his overratedness is in debate. The kid is still pretty good.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Scott Podsednik Benched

A haiku about this teams chances:
Brandon, Freddy gone,
Lots of pitching, down to some.
It rests on Vasquez.

Previewing the NIT

2007-03-12T23:07:00.000-04:00

Before I delve into the field of 65, I figure I'll ramble for a bit about the N.I.T., since I won't really get another chance, as it starts tomorrow.

In most years, I really couldn't give two shits less about the National Invitation Tournament. Pitt has only been involved once since I started seriously following Pitt basketball, and the rest of the time, I pay almost no attention. Honestly, I couldn't even tell you who won last year. Or the year before that. Or any year, really.

This year, I am resolving to change things. Over the years, my attraction to college basketball has gradually increased. At first, I only would watch if Pitt were playing. Then I started getting interested in any game involving Big East teams. Now, I've found myself watching any game that happens to be on TV. A lot of this could have to do with the fact that I have access to cable television whenever I want for the first time in my life, but regardless, I have crossed over to the point where I am at last ready to start following the N.I.T.

This actually might be the first time I've ever even looked at an N.I.T. bracket since Pitt's ill-fated run to the N.I.T. Sweet 16 in 2001. And I'll admit, I really am not sure quite what to make of it. In a lot of ways, this is even harder than filling out the NCAA bracket. To begin with, I know less about most of these teams, if only because they haven't been in the spotlight (read: on national television) nearly as often.

On top of that, I don't even know how the N.I.T. works, really. Do these teams even try? Is a team like Syracuse, which obviously got snubbed, going to sulk and bow out to Missouri State in the second round? Or would the Orangemen use that as motivation to win the whole thing and use it as proof that they should have been included in the big dance? Obviously, it's not that cut-and-dried, and I highly doubt teams would tank games because they're upset at the selection committee. But it's something to think about.

From looking at the history of the tournament, or, at least, the champions and the runners-up, it seems like most of the time the winner and runners-up are both relatively big names. They're almost always from power conferences, too, very few mid-majors throughout this list. So that leads me to believe I should pick as if these teams all care just as much as this tournament as they do any other competition.

I also tend to fall into the habit of thinking of these teams in relation to the teams in the field of 65, if that makes any sense. Like, I look at these teams, and I think about their flaws, and why they'd be prime for a first or second-round knockout. But in reality, their shortcomings are far less noticeable against the inferior competition of the N.I.T.

There's also some things that are hard to get my head around, like the fact that the first three rounds are played at home campuses of the higher-seeded teams. That's always a mindfuck for me because you never really have to think about home/road splits and home-field advantage in the NCAAs. The closest you come is when a team happens to play games not too far from its home, i.e. Louisville playing the first two rounds in Lexington and UCLA not having to leave California at all during the regional phase of the tourney.

With that said, I spent about five minutes and filled in an N.I.T. bracket for the first time ever, making many picks based on personal bias and scant knowledge of the teams involved. Here's what I wound up with:

North Regional

And so it begins. The #1 team in this bracket is Mississippi State, which was 18-13 this year. I can't even remotely begin to get my head around the idea of an 18-13 college team being a number one seed in a high school tournament, let alone anything else. Their first-round opponent, 8th-seeded Mississippi Valley State, has its fair share of awesome names. Their leading scorer and rebounder (their leading rebounder is 6'2", yikes) is named Stanford Speech. There's a Dick Cannon. And a Tychicus Snow. Still, I feel like there's a reason that Mississippi State is a 1 seed, so I'll stick with the favorites.

Then my Big East bias kicks in, as I have Providence overcoming Bradley on the road, which probably isn't a good bet, but I still have a grudge against Bradley for knocking off Pitt in the second round last year. Then I have Provy upsetting Mississippi State too to force their way into the Elite 8. Hey, I like Herbert Hill a lot. Neither Bradley nor Mississippi State really have a player who can take over a game like Hill can, and Hill did it in a much tougher conference than the MVC or the SEC West.

In the bottom half of the bracket, I have 3-seed Michigan progressing all the way to the Elite 8 on the basis that the Wolverines have been pretty good at home all year, and the reason they'll have home field advantage in the first two rounds is because I'm picking Toledo to upset Florida State in round one. I don't like the 'Noles. They beat Florida at home, and apart from that, did absolutely nothing remarkable (which granted, hasn't stopped some teams from getting 4 seeds or 6 seeds in the big dance).

In the regional final, I'll finally put a halt to Provy's unlikely road streak, and put Michigan in the Final Four. Go Blue.

East Regional

Unfortunately, West Virginia shouldn't even have any sort of problem with Delaware State in the first round, nor the winner of the UMass/Alabama matchup (which I chose as UMass just because I still think the SEC is dumb). WVU has home-field throughout, which is too bad because the Mountaineers were 14-1 at home (with their only loss in Morgantown, I'll point out, a 13-point throttling at the hands of Levance Fields' team).

The bottom half of the bracket is one of the most interesting in the N.I.T., I think. Drexel, one of the most prominently mentioned names when it comes to NCAA snubs, is somehow a 3-seed, and they get ACC Tourney cinderellas NC State in the opener. Then they get the winner of Oklahoma State/Marist, which will probably be the Cowboys. Everyone expected Oklahoma State to be much better than they were, but they shit the bed big-time this year and who knows what kind of performance they'll put up in the N.I.T. I'm taking Drexel to the Elite Eight, more for the sake of CAA representation than anything else.

My regional final pits the hated couch-burners against Drexel, and I've decided I've had enough of WVU, so they're getting the boot. While you may scoff at the notion of Drexel winning both at Oklahoma State and in Morgantown, it's important to note that the Dragons are certainly not afraid of playing away from home. They've knocked off Vermont, Syracuse, Villanova, Creighton, and the mighty Northeastern Huskies on the road this season. Plus, they share the same mascot as my alma mater, Taylor Allderdice High School. Drexel to the Final Four.

West Regional

Man, what happened to Air Force? They were the mid-major darlings earlier in the year, and then they lost it. They're on a four-game losing streak, including an embarrassing loss to Wyoming in the Mountain West Tournament that probably was the final nail in the coffin of Air Force's NCAA resume. I've actually been to the University of Wyoming, and believe me, no one should be losing to any sports team that comes from there. Except for maybe the rodeo team. They are probably pretty good at that.

But I think something's gotta give, considering that Air Force was 23-4 just a few short weeks ago. I'm giving them the West Regional's Final Four bid, if only because no one else from that bracket really instills any confidence in me.

There are still some fun teams, to be sure. In the 4/5 game I'm taking Fresno State over Georgia, although Hines Ward wouldn't agree with me. I still don't like the SEC at all, and Fresno State has a guy named Ja'Vance, which is close to Levance, which is pronounced "Bob Cousy Award."

More Big East love in the other half of the bracket, where I have DePaul beating Vermont in the Sweet 16 (also known as the "second round" in the N.I.T., something that would be amended if people would only listen to me). DePaul plays some tough, gritty basketball, and finished 9-7 in conference play, same as Villanova, although to be fair Nova's schedule was much tougher because of the soon-to-be-extinct unbalanced scheduling. Plus, they have Hofstra in the first round, and Hofstra is so bad it lost to Northeastern by double digits in a game I got to witness personally.

Then, according to my bracket, they'd get to play Vermont at home, because Vermont is a 7 seed and I have them upsetting 2-seeded Kansas State in the first round. I don't think I even heard Kansas State mentioned once until they squeaked by Texas at the beginning of February. Then they sort of disappeared again until they raped a totally lackadaisical Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney. I'd much rather see any team called the Catamounts win than some nondescript, boring Big 12 team.

Summary: Air Force over DePaul in the Elite Eight.

South Regional

Not only did Syracuse get bent over and fucked in the ass by the NCAA selection committee, they're not even rewarded with a #1 seed in the N.I.T. No, that honor goes to Clemson, which started 17-0 by virtue of playing a non-conference schedule full of powerhouses such as Monmouth, Charleston Southern (I didn't even know this school existed until thirty seconds ago. Awesome.), and Wofford. Still, I figure they'll have a hard time losing to East Tennessee State in the first round, and playing at home to the winner of the 4/5 game, they've got a pretty good chance there, too.

Speaking of that 4/5 game, we have Ole Miss at home to Appalachian State. While I really think the Rebels are the better bet here, some things defy all logic, and one of them is the fact that Appalachian State is HOT HOT HOT!

The other side of the regional is Syracuse's to own. This is a bold assertion, since I have a feeling Syracuse just doesn't care at this point, since getting omitted from the big dance was such a debilitating blow. But I don't care. I have 'Cuse blowing by South Alabama, Missouri State, and Clemson on their way to the final spot in the N.I.T. Final Four.

Final Four

Just to recap, my Final Four consists of:

Michigan, Drexel, Air Force, and Syracuse.

The first semi-final pits Michigan against Drexel, and since these games are now at Madison Square Garden, I feel like Drexel would have more of the crowd behind it here, since Philly is just a quick jaunt away. Michigan has struggled mightily away from Ann Arbor all season, and I'm tempted to go with the hot hand in Drexel. Plus, Dragons. Yes. Drexel it is.

In the other semi-final, if Syracuse has made it this far without apathy setting in, I feel like they'll smell blood and just keep on trucking, right through Air Force. And again, the Syracuse students probably won't have any qualms about driving across New York to attend the game, whereas Air Force might have a little bit more trouble gathering support from Colorado.

That leaves the final as Drexel vs. Syracuse, in a rematch of a game Drexel won at the Carrier Dome, 84-79, back in December. Now that I think about it, these are also the two most-talked about teams when talking heads and water cooler pundits alike bring up this year's batch of NCAA snubs. Maybe hearing these names so often throughout the last 24 hours played a subconscious role in the way my bracket turned out, but either way, in the end, I say 'Cuse wins the rematch in the ultimate "fuck you" to the NCAA selection committee.

Regardless of what happens, I'm excited to see the results. Mainly just to see if Appalachian State can pull off a win, but it'll be fun even if they don't.

FC's MLB Preview: Oakland Athletics

2007-03-12T21:12:00.000-04:00

Offseason Analysis: Let me first get this out of the way: WE FINALLY GOT OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WE FINALLY GOT OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WHOOOO.

Anyway, the offseason:

A lot of two steps back, one step forward. Frank Thomas to the Blue Jays? Two steps back. Replacement: Mike Piazza? One step forward. Barry Zito to the Giants? Two steps back. Replacement: Joe Kennedy? One step forward. Joe Kennedy from the bullpen to the rotation? Two steps back. Replacement: Alan Embree? One step forward. You get the idea. Shannon Stewart was the only acquisition that wasn’t accompanied by any stepping back, though now that Mark Kotsay’s been hurt and figures to miss a good chunk of time you could argue that’s negligible. Rule Vers (my favorite type of player) Ryan Goleski and Jay Marshall were also brought in, and at least Goleski has a pretty good chance to stick. All in all, though, not the greatest of off seasons for Mr. Moneyball.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: 2. Number of games Mark Kiger played all season, making his major league debut in the ALCS against the Tigers as a defensive replacement for the starter, D’Angelo Jimenez. Yes, it got that bad during after Mark Ellis went down in the ALDS. And no, don’t expect to see Mark ever again. He will make a fun trivia question, though.

Most Overlooked Player: Justin Duchscherer. Easily. I don’t think people realize just how great this guy is. In three full years now with Oakland, his rundown of ERA+ lines looks like this: 143 in 96 IP in 2004, 204 in 85 IP in 2005, 152 in 55 IP in 2006. This guy is the ultimate modern day fireman, and an absolute rock in the bullpen. Goes multiple innings in late close games. Strands baserunners at the time they’re most needed to be stranded. His health is arguably as important to this team as Rich Harden’s or Bobby Crosby’s going into 07.

Fun prop bet: Marco Scutaro: Number of memorable clutch hits: 6. I’m going with the over, just because he earned a lifetime pass from me for this last year:

Funnest non-roster invitee: Lou Merloni. The Boston folkhero just keeps on plugging along. 1,085 career at bats. .271/.332/.384 line. Incidentally enough, that should put him at least fourth on our middle infield depth chart, unless I guess you count Antonio Perez as a middle infielder (and baseball player). Grand holder of the revered, “I’m not D’Angelo Jimenez or Mark Kiger” title.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Much as I hate to say it, probably Piazza. Largely because his expectations involve replacing a guy by the name of Frank Thomas who just had the best offensive season for an A since the likes of Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada roamed these parts. A lot of people are thinking, “Well, hey, he hit pretty well at Petco Park last year, and that’s an extreme pitcher’s park, and he also caught, and now he’ll be DHing, he’s gonna have a great season.” I just don’t buy that. He hit .283/.342/.501 with 22 jacks, which is all fine and dandy, but I don’t see where he’s going to improve on that by getting older, switching to the American League, and staying in a pitcher’s park. Call me pessimistic.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Jason Kendall. Man look at this scrapper. Look at his manly stubble. He had that play last year in Texas where there was a past ball, and the dude tried to score from third, and Kendall just got the ball himself and dove at the plate in time to tag him out and win the game. GRIT. DETERMINATION. MANLY STUBBLE.

manly stubble!

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Javier Herrera. Dude's been hurt. Dude's been caught roiding. He has one professional season with an OPS over .818, at low A. Consider me not quite sold, tools be damned.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Harden Gives Piazza Eyeful

A haiku about this teams chances:
on paper okay
might have shot in al west
injuries will hurt

FC's MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

2007-03-12T18:03:00.000-04:00

Offseason Analysis: The Diamondbacks had a bevy of talented prospects, and also a lot of rotation holes to fill. They used one to try to fill the other, mostly acquiring starters who had off-years; Doug Davis was taken for the soon-to-be expensive Johnny Estrada and prodigal grandpa Randy Johnson was acquired for a few minor prospects and Luis Vizcaino. Their rotation could best be described as a rich man's Mets rotation, with one sure thing (Webb and Glavine) and a bunch of okay old guys or question mark young'ns (Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Davis, El Duque, Maine, Oliver Perez), and just like the Mets, they have a lineup that shouldn't take much more than adequate.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Arizona pitchers, when batting, had a GB/FB ratio of 5.42 and grounded into 9 double plays, which was 3 more than any other team and 5 more than any non-Phillies team. Keep bunting, boys.

Most Overlooked Player: Well, with a system so full of touted prospects and high-profile pitchers, it's hard to find a real winner for this. I'm going to go with Orlando Hudson. Nominally only known as a good gloveman, the desert air helped him top an .800 OPS for the first time in his career. Far more important than these things though, is the fact that his middle name is "Thill",

Fun prop bet: Luis Gonzalez extra-base hits versus Carlos Quentin home runs.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Former Royal, Pirate, and FC favorite DJ Carrasco, who managed a 14.81 ERA for the Softbank Hawks in 2006. He's got a nifty 6:1 strikeout/walk ratio despite his mediocre 5.4 ERA so far, but he's probably bound for Tuscon anyway.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Jorge Julio, who logged a 3.83 ERA for the Diamondbacks last year, as compared to his recent history (5.06 ERA with the Mets, 5.9 ERA in 2005 with the Orioles), seems pretty unlikely to continue at that pace. Also, he may actually be a werewolf.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Eric Byrnes dives all over the place, he's a true gamer. He gets grass stains in his teeth and goes full-out on every play. His hair is made from twigs and upstaged even Jeannie Zelasko's horrendous do. Maybe the exposure will garner him the votes he needs.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Connor Jackson is not going to live up to the expectations that were set for him in A ball, when he was murdering the ball. He's going to be an average-ish first baseman, in the mold Lyle Overbay made before him.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: Big No-Hit: Johnson Blanks Nationals.

A haiku about this teams chances:
young, drew, montero:
seven eighty OPS
between; division

The Future Considerations Official Dice Bracket

2007-03-12T17:06:00.000-04:00

How it's done: Go to the Pomeroy Ratings, take the differential in his Pyth% between each team, add 50% to it, then roll a 100 sided dice. If it's below the number, the "favorite" wins, and if it's above the number, the underdog wins.

Why it's done: Come on, you all know there won't be three #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the Final Four. George Mason made it last year along with 3 other non-#1/2 seeds. While this bracket is a little upset heavy, I think it's a lot more fun to root for. Obviously I'll be giving a REAL analysis before the tourney too, but this is my shits and giggles bracket that I love.

For the record, Texas A&M CC rolled 100 in both of their first two rounds. Truly a team of destiny.

A way to make the college basketball postseason even more fun

2007-03-12T15:37:00.000-04:00

Okay, okay. Last college basketball post before I actually start talking brackets.

Normally, I pay no attention to the N.I.T. whatsoever. It's actually a shame, because the N.I.T. can be fun to watch, I'm sure. But I was thinking, something that would make the N.I.T. a lot more appealing would be to drop some teams from the NCAA tournament into the later rounds of the N.I.T.

After thinking about it, the most logical way to do this would be to take the 16 teams that lose in the second round of the NCAAs and place them into the second round of the N.I.T. Since the N.I.T. only has 32 teams to begin with, that'd give them 32 teams in both the first and the second round, giving it the same amount of rounds as the NCAA tournament. My idea would be that the highest seed to get eliminated from the second round in the NCAAs would play the lowest remaining seed in the corresponding N.I.T. regional, and so on down the list.

This happens in European soccer with the Champions League, where the third place teams from the group stage in that competition fall into the round of 32 in the UEFA Cup. It serves to make the UEFA Cup much more competitive, entertaining, and maybe even above all else, it lends Europe's "minor" cup a lot more credibility. I think it would have the same effect in college basketball.

Of course, the idea would never fly, at least not without a ton of tinkering. The main problem would be scheduling. First of all, the tournaments are set up so that the N.I.T. is over before the NCAA Final Four even begins, as well it should be. The big dance fully deserves center stage. In my scheme, the NCAA second round would have to be held before the N.I.T. second round, and unless the NCAA schedule was really stretched or the N.I.T. schedule compacted, it would mean the NCAAs would finish before the N.I.T.

For another thing, it would mean that a team that drops into the second round of the N.I.T. from the NCAA tournament would wind up having to play one more game if it wins the whole thing (seven) as opposed to an original N.I.T. team, which would just have to play through six rounds. It could be argued that this simply counteracts the fact that teams dropping from the second round of the tourney are probably more talented than their N.I.T. counterparts to begin with, but it would be extremely hard to push this idea on the players on those teams that would have to play the extra game.

Also, my idea would leave N.I.T. coaches completely in the dark. Essentially, they'd have no idea who to expect in the second round of the N.I.T. they'd know it'd be someone from the big dance, but they'd have no idea who. It'd be extremely hard to gameplan for their upcoming opponent on such short notice.

And, of course, the biggest detraction of my idea is that it would sort of ruin the win-or-your-season-is-finished mentality teams have going into the NCAA tournament. The second-round games just wouldn't feel the same knowing that the loser still gets to play on, albeit in a much less meaningful competition.

--------------------------------------------------

Basically, here's the best way I can think of how to work this to schedule it as fairly as possible but also so the NCAA tournament finishes after the N.I.T.:

NCAA first round - March 15-16
NCAA second round - March 17-18
N.I.T. first round - March 16-17
N.I.T. second round - March 20-21
NCAA sweet 16 - March 22-23
N.I.T. sweet 16 - March 22-23
NCAA elite 8 - March 24-25
N.I.T. elite 8 - March 25 (come on, you can easily have four games in a day)
N.I.T. final 4 - March 27
N.I.T. championship - March 30
NCAA final 4 - March 31
NCAA championship - April 2

There's not nearly as much downtime in the revised N.I.T. this way, with what would be just three days off at the most between games (although always at least one day off), but it'd be much more entertaining from a fan's perspective.

Pitt's run in the Big East Tournament

2007-03-11T20:21:00.000-04:00

The Pitt fans who travel to New York City every year during the first week of March have pretty much become able to book their hotel rooms for Saturday night without so much as a second thought. Such is the regularity with which the Panthers have earned their way into the Big East Championship Game, having reached the final six times in the past seven years.

However, they've also taken on some characteristics of a certain other local sports team, almost always following up regular season superiority with postseason disappointments. They've won just one of those six Big East Championships, and I don't need to tell you about their failures in the big dance.

The trend continued this year, with a hard-fought, up-tempo ten-point victory over Marquette in the quarterfinals and a hard-fought traditional Big East bruiser against Louisville on Friday night. The main difference between this year and previous years, though, was that Pitt didn't even put up a fight in the final. It was a disappointing result, given Pitt's efforts, albeit losing efforts, in epic Big East Championship Games like the double-overtime loss to Syracuse in 2002 and the three-point loss to UConn in 2004.

Despite the embarrassing performance in this year's Big East final, the tournament was no doubt a positive experience for the Panthers.

First of all, their path to the Championship Game was a huge boost for Pitt's supporters, assuaging some of the fears that Pitt can't beat good teams. Marquette and Louisville are both certainly good teams, ones that Pitt went 0-3 against during the regular season. In the process of upending two of the only three Big East teams to conquer them this year, the Panthers also exorcised some demons in a pretty nifty passion?

Remember when Marquette sunk their last fifteen consecutive free throws in the final minutes of regulation and overtime, way back in January, en route to a three-point victory over Pitt at the Oakland Zoo? In a thrilling stroke of poetic justice, Pitt made fifteen straight free throws during the second half of their 89-79 win over Marquette in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament.

Remember when Louisville's full-court press harried Pitt into 19 turnovers during a humiliating 13-point loss at the Pete (Pitt's worst home loss since the building opened)? Pitt brushed off everything the Cardinals threw at them despite Aaron Gray playing only 13 minutes thanks to foul trouble, turned the ball over only 4 times, and muscled their way to a second consecutive night of clutch performances from the free throw line.

So far, so good.

Then, of course, there's the Championship Game itself, in which Pitt stumbled to a 23-point loss, scoring fewer points than any team in any previous Big East Championship Game. For a lot of other teams, this could be a devastating result. But for a team like Pitt, where success should only be measured in terms of NCAA tourney accomplishments these days, it's not as big of an issue as a lot of people are making it out to be.

I don't mean to take credit away from Georgetown, because the Hoyas are a great team. But let's be honest here; Pitt purely and simply shot itself in the foot during that game. The Hoyas defense was good, but not so good that it was the sole reason Pitt shot a miserable 26.2% from the floor. A lot of the misses were very open looks, and Gray, the biggest culprit, was 1-for-13. Most of his misses were virtually gimmes. Gray was hardly taking ridiculous shots that he's not accustomed to taking. He was just missing the easiest buckets for some strange reason.

I was a fan of the big guy's five o'clock shadow, but certainly not his
aggravatingly bad play.

This brings me to another point. The Panthers can prepare for playing an entire game without Gray. They can even do a decent job of improvising if Gray gets injured mid-game/forced to the bench because of foul trouble for an extended period of time (see: Pitt 65, Louisville 59). But what Pitt can't do is plan for a situation where Gray is in the game, but just playing so badly he's hurting the team far more than he's helping it. Such instances are very, very rare, but we saw one on Saturday night.

As long as Gray is on the floor, the tendency is to put an exorbitant amount of weight on him. And that makes sense, because Gray is still the team's most productive player at both ends of the floor, and still averages close to a double-double. But if he plays as bad as he does last night, Pitt is fucked. The Panthers have the talent to overcome a complete lack of Gray, but not Gray impaling his own team.

To that end, I'm willing to overlook Saturday night's blemish as just an off night all around (and it clearly wasn't just Gray). The Panthers still held Georgetown to 65 points, and if you tell me that Pitt holds any opponent to 65 points I'd be convinced that Pitt would be at the very least running with them. And the math supports me:

Pitt on the season (including Saturday night's debacle) shoots 51.1% on two-point attempts and 37.5% on three-point attempts. Using those numbers with Pitt's 2-point and 3-point attempts on Saturday night (44 and 17, respectively), plus the amount of free throws made (which was almost exactly the same percentage as their season total, so that doesn't even need to be altered).

Shooting to their season averages on Saturday, Pitt would have scored 69 points. That's 4 more than Georgetown actually scored, coincidentally shooting approximately (just slightly higher) their season average.

Obviously there are variables, like Georgetown could have been a little more aggressive had the game been closer, etc. But in general it's pretty clear that Pitt's absolutely abysmal night shooting was the only reason Pitt wasn't in that game at the very least. Defensively they did well enough, and they only committed nine turnovers. Not a great number, but not the kind of number you can point to as a reason Pitt got blown out, especially when Georgetown turned the ball over the same amount of times.

Of course, doing all this analysis is pretty much meaningless, except it makes me feel better and makes me pretty confident that Saturday night was nothing more than a fluke. Pitt was simply stone cold. It happens sometimes.

In the end, I'll take this tournament showing. Pitt came up big against two top-25 teams that had tormented them during the regular season, and then hopefully got their bedshitting performance out of the way before the big dance. Sure, it would have been nice had Pitt taken home the Big East title, but I would much, much rather see an appearance in the Elite 8 for once.

Although that looks like it's going to be a hell of an ordeal as it is, but I'll save bracket talk for another post.

Future Considerations celebrates the month of March

2007-03-11T20:03:00.000-04:00

There's something about this month.

The weather starts to get warmer. You can actually smell spring coming (and you all know exactly what I'm talking about. At least, all of you who have lived in a temperate climate and have actually gotten to experience the changing of the seasons).

A 6'5", 260 pound man roams the outfield in Bradenton. A 27-year-old Nigerian rookie stymies Grapefruit League hitters with pinpoint precision and deceiving release points. We receive affirmation on why a certain hero is the coolest guy in baseball.

And, of course, there's still some indoor sports being played. I've always immensely enjoyed the fact that the NCAA Championship Game is always either on the same day or just a couple days apart from the Major League Baseball season opener. The most exciting American sports tournament climaxing at almost the exact same moment as new hope is born for baseball fans all over the country.

People give March a lot of grief because the weather usually sucks. It's either cold, or it's rainy. Sometimes it's both. But March, do know that there are people out there who appreciate you.

FC's MLB Preview: New York Mets

2007-03-09T03:36:00.000-05:00

Offseason Analysis: The Mets looked at Barry Zito, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Jeff Suppan, Tomo Ohka, Javier Vazquez, Bert Blyleven, Oil Can Boyd, and the 1996 Denver Broncos, but decided not to make a move for the second solid starter that everyone wanted them to. The only major loss of the offseason was Chad Bradford, who signed with the Orioles. The only major signing was Moises Alou, who will replace Cliff Floyd as the Mets designated geriatric masher in left field.

Random stat from 2006 that was awesome: Despite Jose Valentin's .271/.330/.490 line, other Mets second baseman at the beginning of the year were so horrible that the Mets ranked 23rd in MLB at OPS by second basemen, at .244/.308/.404, perhaps suggesting that the whole idea of regression by Valentin won't be THAT big of a deal.

Most Overlooked Player: The only player Future Considerations sponsors on baseball-reference, Pedro Feliciano was the real key behind the Mets dominant bullpen last year. Not only did he have the lowest ERA and ERA+, but he got even better after Duaner Sanchez was injured, stepping up with a 1.75 second half ERA. All this, and all they can talk about is Wagner, Heilman, and Bradford. Not bad for someone who pitched for the Softbank Hawks in 2005.

Fun prop bet: Oliver Perez: ERA over/under 4.5. This is the key question of the Mets season, too. I say over, but just barely.

Funnest non-roster invitee: Jose A. Reyes. Just imagine how confusing this could get.

Player unlikely to live up to expectations: Probably Paul Lo Duca. He's coming off a (second) career year, where he hit almost 30 points above his average. He also incredibly hit .338 in the second-half of the year, as compared to his career .270 average after the All-Star break. I predict he'll hit much closer to .280/.330/.380 this year, with the Hernandez's (Ramon, who the Mets should have signed, and Gaby, who they traded to get Lo Duca) both showing him up.

Player most likely to finish second to David Eckstein in this years Holiday Inn Second Look/scrappy white guy award: Easily Lo Duca. Look at all the intangibles and pluck he brings to the plate every time he bats. He willed JD Drew to make that stupid baserunning mistake in game 1 of the NLDS too. Sheer plucky will.

Mike Caruso Memorial Overrated Prospect Award: Here's a controversial pick; Phillip Humber. He's been bombed in Spring Training, he was not good in the AFL, he's already been injured once. I'd love to be wrong, as this is my team, but lets be ballsy here and not pick someone like Michel Abreu.

A Fake Newspaper Headline From Some Point In The Season: El Duque? El Pis! Alou teaches Hernandez how to avoid blisters. (Naturally in the Post)

A haiku about this teams chances:
two okay starters:
duque, maine, pelfrey, ollie
mean playoffs again

BC Took Care Of Us Powerful Easily

2007-03-09T03:18:00.000-05:00

Well Game 1 didn't go exactly as I had hoped it would. Of course, that doesn't come as a shock. We're a 7 seed playing one of the best teams in all of college hockey at a time when they're playing their best hockey of the season. The keys to this series, I thought, would be slowing down BC senior forward Brian Boyle and our own freshman goalie, Brad Thiessen, stepping up big. Thiessen wasn't bad tonight, nor was he particularly good, saving 26 of 29 shots (3 goals allowed), but it wouldn't have mattered if he was great anyway. We nearly matched BC shot for shot (25-29), but Eagles goalie Cory Schneider simply wasn't going to allow anything by. Well earned shutout, indeed.

a for effort. l for loss.

Sopohomore right winger Brock Bradford put the biggest dent in Thiessen, going for two goals, while fellow sophomore Nathan Gerbe was involved in all three of the teams goals, getting three assists on the night. As it turns out, Schneider also set the BC school record for shutouts, his 14th in three years.

dude was good.

The loss, of course, puts us in a rather imposing hole, as we now have to beat the Eagles in two straight games in order to keep the season alive and advance to the Hockey East semis. If Schneider's anything like he was tonight in the next two games, well, we'll just have to wait til next year.

Anyway, you know what they always say....

FUCK EM UP
FUCK EM UP
BC SUCKS

(hey, you have to draw solace from somewhere, right?)

-On a side note, Vermont topped (Sucks To) BU 3-2 while New Hampshire had their way with Providence, 4-0. If these were 1 game playoffs, my picks would be 3-3. We'll see if that holds up. (At least in the case of NU, I hope not.)

Awww Yeahhh Take That UCLA

2007-03-09T02:50:00.000-05:00

In the upset of the day, in my opinion (which is just that, an opinion. You could say NC State over Duke I guess, but Duke sucks. UCLA is actually good) Cal took a huge halftime lead, then blew it embarrassingly, and then somehow miraculously took the game to overtime as the immensely talented but perpetually disappointing Ayinde Ubaka took the game, and Cal's season, into his own hands.

hella tight.

This was a real exciting game for me. I watched the whole of it and, of course, was real excited at half time, but had that hesitant "well, this can't last" mindset I take into every potential upset. And I was, of course, correct with that mindset, as so often is the case. But something funny happened, and Cal, in blowing their lead, managed to not shit the bed and let UCLA trump them by 15 or so. They stayed in there, they never fell far behind, and, when on the brink of elimination, they stepped up and took it to overtime where they really turned it on to earn the win. Kudos, especially, to Ubaka, who put on a marvelous display. In the same sense that Ryan Anderson single handedly won yesterday's game against Oregon State, today Ayinde Ubaka single handedly beat UCLA. His 29 points were supplemented by 18 from Anderson and a whole lot of nothing else. I hope there were NBA scouts watching you, Ayinde, cos if they were you just may have a shot at being taken in the second round now.

It'd be cliche to say I think Cal can actually go the distance and win the Pac 10 tourney, earning an (undeserving) bid into the NCAA's, but, hell, I do. They've always been a talented squad. Ryan Anderson is the best freshman in the Pac 10 (Spencer Hawes and Chase Budinger be damned), and one of the best in the entire country. Ayinde Ubaka, as I said, is an immensely talented point guard. Theo Robertson is a solid big man. Taylor Harrison is a scrapper. Omar Wilkes is explosive at times. If this team still had DeVon Hardin, I could argue they'd be a dangerous, dangerous team in the NCAA tourney. That said, they're still probably going to lose to the Oregon Ducks tomorrow, and the dream will probably die, but I think they'll at least give them a run for their money. They've got the talent at least.

-Is it wrong that I look at this story, and go, "Oh, of course." That sounds a bit blowharded, and perhaps it is, but It's just not all that surprising to me. I dunno. I irrationally assume like 90% of women's basketball coaches must be lesbians, so it's just not particularly shocking. What're you gonna tell me next, that college professors engage in relationships with their students? Never. Never.

-That Chris Simon hit is ridiculous. I wish it were up on Youtube, I'm sure it will be in the coming days. But I must direct you to ESPN.com where you can watch it, because it's just absurd. If you can, picture the guy literally taking his stick and swinging it at another dude's face as he harmlessly skates back to the bench. It's hard to fathom, even after watching it. I'm pretty sure if I went outside and did that to a random bystander I'd go to jail. For a long time. I just mean, wow.

Yesterday in the QMJHL

2007-03-07T02:24:00.000-05:00

St. John's 2-3 Prince Edward Island (SO)

Defenceman Marc-Andre Gragnani scored the only shootout goal in PEI's 3-2 win over the Fog Devils. PEI was highly inefficient, scoring only 2 goals on 42 shots, but they won anyway by dominating the play. St. John's continues to be pretty lousy.

Baie-Comeau 2-1 Chicoutimi (OT)

Exciting game from the Centre Georges-Vezina, my Drakkar notched the win with one minute remaining on a Joakim Jensen goal. The Drakkar celebrated Michaël Dupont's being named Defensive Player of the Week by putting Marco Cousineau in goal, where he stopped 29 of 30 shots, which is not bad. Cousineau is kind of a goofy looking fella, which is something I learned by sitting behind the Drakkar bench once and watching him quietly plot to take out Dupont to become the regular netminder.
For what it's worth, the Saguenéens won more than half their faceoffs and are still just a point back of Rouyn-Noranda for 7th place, which would allow them to avoid Val D'Or in the first round.

In the other CHL leagues:

Oshawa 13-3 Toronto St. Michael's

Oshawa went 6/7 on the power play, John Tavares scored his 62nd goal, Oshawa clinched a playoff spot, Oshawa got 27 shots in the 2nd period, Toronto will be moving after the season. Stephen Colbert Day in Oshawa is only a couple weeks away, though!

Calgary 4-3 Prince George

Everett 6-2 Spokane

Moose Jaw 5-1 Prince Albert